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Wisconsin GOP Primary : Why is it being pushed as a make or break?

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posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 09:31 AM
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Perhaps it's because the Wisconsin primary is a standalone primary on the night with a long period of no primaries leading up to it and a long period after it before the next one, but a strange amount of focus is being placed on it that really doesn't match up to the actual mathematical impact it will have.

fivethirtyeight.com have a good delegate tracker and projection for each candidate.
At the moment it says that Trump is at 95% of where he needs to be to end up with 1237 delegates.

To put it in delegate terms Trump is 37 delegates behind where he needs to be at this time if he were on track to get to 1237.

The other two are out of the race in terms of getting 1237.

So what abut Wisconsin? - well the projection by fivethirtyeight.com was always that Wisconsin was a state more likely to fall for Cruz.

They have a target for Trump of 18 delegates from the 42 on offer.
On Cruz's 1237 projection - which is already bust - he was slated as getting 33 of the 42 delegates in Wisconsin.

So lets take an extreme and assume that Cruz wins all 42 and Trump gets 0.

It would mean that Trump would fall to 55 delegates behind his required projections and would need to make them up elsewhere.
Add that North Dakota delegates are selecting unbound delegates and Trump was supposed to get 10 of them, but will likely get 0, plus Trump only got 1 from the 6 he was forecast to get in Wyoming and I would say Trump is currently 70 delegates behind his target.

Here's the map for Trump: He will need to run at +70 after Wisconsin assuming he gets no delegates there.
Note the first column is the delegate count on offer and the second column of numbers are what fivethirtyeight had down for Trump in terms of their projection to get to 1237.
Wyoming has already voted and Trump will get 1 from the 6 forecast for Trump.


edit on 1/4/2016 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)




posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 09:35 AM
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Thanks for the perspective...and the chart.
As far as I'm concerned...there are too many variables floating out there for anyone to make an accurate prediction.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 09:37 AM
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a reply to: IAMTAT

Looks to me like California and New York are going to be the king makers this time around...with Pennsylvania another key battleground.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 09:47 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

I decided this wasn't the place for a rant. Good morning.

Have a blessed day.

edit on 412016 by Sillyolme because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 09:48 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

They always are. They are areas with the highest percentage of college educated citizens.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 10:08 AM
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Fox News has a poll out showing Cruz at 42% and Trump behind at 32% for Wisconsin.

But, really, who knows? And it's Fox News, too.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 10:08 AM
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originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: IAMTAT

Looks to me like California and New York are going to be the king makers this time around...with Pennsylvania another key battleground.

Interesting.
Typically, by the time the primaries roll around to Pennsylvania, the race is already over.

This time..... when there isn't a candidate that I approve of in the least bit..... we might make a difference.

We might have a say in which turd we get!

YAY!



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 11:01 AM
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originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: UKTruth

They always are. They are areas with the highest percentage of college educated citizens.


Really? I thought NY and California were typically at less important as the races had more of less been completed by teh time they came around in previous years...



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 11:02 AM
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originally posted by: butcherguy

originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: IAMTAT

Looks to me like California and New York are going to be the king makers this time around...with Pennsylvania another key battleground.

Interesting.
Typically, by the time the primaries roll around to Pennsylvania, the race is already over.

This time..... when there isn't a candidate that I approve of in the least bit..... we might make a difference.

We might have a say in which turd we get!

YAY!


haha - choose wisely!
Yes - I did think those two states were typically less of an influence.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 11:07 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

At this stage, they are all "make-or-break" to those in the political races.

(second)



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 11:57 AM
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I think it has to do with Wisconsin delegates + the up coming California delegates. Between the two it is the last chance for Cruz to even get close to Trump in delegate count. I know that Trump is going into the Convention short of the 1237 that he needs. If Trump wins either of the Wisconsin or California votes. He will go into the convention in a better position than if he does not. I think I can see a contested convention. The RNC and the political elite in Washington do not like either Trump or Cruz. So they are going to try something sneaky at the convention.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 01:01 PM
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originally posted by: UKTruth
fivethirtyeight.com have a good delegate tracker and projection for each candidate.
At the moment it says that Trump is at 95% of where he needs to be to end up with 1237 delegates.

To put it in delegate terms Trump is 37 delegates behind where he needs to be at this time if he were on track to get to 1237.

The other two are out of the race in terms of getting 1237


Right now your source has Trump at 94% chance of losing Wisconsin.

If he loses Wisconsin he virtually has to win everywhere else without stumble or error to reach 1237.

He is 95% of target now, but after Wisconsin that margin will grow, not shrink.

The GOP want a contested convention...really bad...they don't care about trump having the most delegates...if he doesn't get the majority (1237) then it will be a contested convention.

That is why Wisconsin is important to Trump...it will derail his chances at 1237 unless he sweeps the remaining primaries.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 02:52 PM
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originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth
fivethirtyeight.com have a good delegate tracker and projection for each candidate.
At the moment it says that Trump is at 95% of where he needs to be to end up with 1237 delegates.

To put it in delegate terms Trump is 37 delegates behind where he needs to be at this time if he were on track to get to 1237.

The other two are out of the race in terms of getting 1237


Right now your source has Trump at 94% chance of losing Wisconsin.

If he loses Wisconsin he virtually has to win everywhere else without stumble or error to reach 1237.

He is 95% of target now, but after Wisconsin that margin will grow, not shrink.

The GOP want a contested convention...really bad...they don't care about trump having the most delegates...if he doesn't get the majority (1237) then it will be a contested convention.

That is why Wisconsin is important to Trump...it will derail his chances at 1237 unless he sweeps the remaining primaries.


Yes - I already covered that in the thread though. Assuming worst case for Trump and he gets no delegates in WI then he'll be about 70 delegates short of the run rate with the remaining states shown to make that back up. He will not need to sweep the remaining primaries at all to achieve that, which was the purpose of showing the remaining forecasts.

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.

NY is an example.

27 districts - 50% plus in each one gives all 3 delegates. Without Kaisch, Trumps NY haul would likely be all 95 delegates.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 03:16 PM
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originally posted by: UKTruth

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.



I think that inaccurately presumes that Kasich voters would go Trump.

Trumps unusually high "unfavorable" ratings...I think the highest amongst either Dems or GOP running...means that it is not likely that voters would easily switch to a Trump vote absent Kasich..

Trumps hoped to dispense with the contested convention, but that no longer looks likely..

Honestly..all politics and ideology aside? Absent him getting 1237, the GOP will nominate someone else, possibly Cruz while holding their nose..

Trump loses...Either the nomination, as an independent or as the GOP Nominee in a general election...

All polls have been hugely consistent in this prediction far beyond any margin of error..

He has no path to victory...Forget for a moment that he has mobilized Mainstream GOP, Dems, Minorities and hell even Pro-Life groups to turn against him in recent months..

Lets just think about Women...They constitute the majority of the country..


And that CNN poll is not an outlier. Virtually every poll done in the last month shows him with gigantic negatives among women: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). And since the Democratic Party already has more women voters than the Republicans do, this translates into a serious disadvantage in the fall.[/ex]
www.salon.com...



Overall, 73% of female voters in a mid-March CNN/ORC poll said they had a negative view of Trump, just 26% view him positively. That unfavorable number is up 14 points in the last few months: from 59% in December and 67% in late February. Even Republican women, who mostly have favorable views of Trump, are more likely to report unfavorable opinions now than they were a few months ago, 39% unfavorable in March vs. 29% in December. Among men, however, there has been no such shift, with 54% holding an unfavorable view in December, 52% in February and 57% now.


www.cnn.com...

He can not win...this is not political it is math...



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 03:54 PM
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The primary next Tuesday could be interesting for another reason.

Wisconsin is finally abiding by the Voter ID regulation that was passed a few years ago, but never really enforced until this year. I had to show my driver's license prior to voting in the primary for State Supreme Court in February and according to the local paper, only 1 person had to be turned away at the polls.

Here's a snippet of the article from Salon quoting Pro Public's Sarah Smith:


"On April 5, when voters cast ballots in Wisconsin’s Republican and Democratic primaries, the state’s controversial voter ID bill will face its biggest test since Governor Scott Walker signed it into law in 2011. For the first time in a major election, citizens will be required to show approved forms of identification in order to vote. The law mandates that the state run a public-service campaign “in conjunction with the first regularly scheduled primary and election” to educate voters on what forms of ID are acceptable.

But Wisconsin has failed to appropriate funds for the public education campaign. The result is that thousands of citizens may be turned away from the polls simply because they did not understand what form of identification they needed to vote."



I don't personally recall seeing any notifications on TV so far. To be fair, I have seen a few articles in the local paper reminding voters to bring picture ID to vote, and in some of the publications aimed at Senior citizens that I've seen at work. In the upcoming days, there may be more reminders in the news to remember picture ID.

If voters are turned away across the state, there could be some blowback from the various candidates that they didn't receive the number of votes and therefore delegates.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 04:00 PM
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originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.



I think that inaccurately presumes that Kasich voters would go Trump.

Trumps unusually high "unfavorable" ratings...I think the highest amongst either Dems or GOP running...means that it is not likely that voters would easily switch to a Trump vote absent Kasich..

Trumps hoped to dispense with the contested convention, but that no longer looks likely..

Honestly..all politics and ideology aside? Absent him getting 1237, the GOP will nominate someone else, possibly Cruz while holding their nose..

Trump loses...Either the nomination, as an independent or as the GOP Nominee in a general election...

All polls have been hugely consistent in this prediction far beyond any margin of error..

He has no path to victory...Forget for a moment that he has mobilized Mainstream GOP, Dems, Minorities and hell even Pro-Life groups to turn against him in recent months..

Lets just think about Women...They constitute the majority of the country..


And that CNN poll is not an outlier. Virtually every poll done in the last month shows him with gigantic negatives among women: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). And since the Democratic Party already has more women voters than the Republicans do, this translates into a serious disadvantage in the fall.[/ex]
www.salon.com...



Overall, 73% of female voters in a mid-March CNN/ORC poll said they had a negative view of Trump, just 26% view him positively. That unfavorable number is up 14 points in the last few months: from 59% in December and 67% in late February. Even Republican women, who mostly have favorable views of Trump, are more likely to report unfavorable opinions now than they were a few months ago, 39% unfavorable in March vs. 29% in December. Among men, however, there has been no such shift, with 54% holding an unfavorable view in December, 52% in February and 57% now.


www.cnn.com...

He can not win...this is not political it is math...



In New York, Trump is on the cusp of 50% already (over it in some polls). Without Kasich in the race, he would break 50% easily.
Cruz is currently polling at 20%. He would need to make up 30% just to hold Trump below the 50% mark. In other words he would need all of Kasich votes, all the undecided and some of Trumps votes. Its very likely Trump would sweep New York with Kasich out of the race, like I said.

Your point is more valid in states where Trump is not as close to 50%, but particularly on the East Coast, Kasich is there to hold Trump down. He has even said so himself, claiming Trump wins if he drops out.

In terms of the presidential nomination, you and I are in agreement. Trump has no path and never did.
edit on 1/4/2016 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 05:59 PM
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originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.



I think that inaccurately presumes that Kasich voters would go Trump.

Trumps unusually high "unfavorable" ratings...I think the highest amongst either Dems or GOP running...means that it is not likely that voters would easily switch to a Trump vote absent Kasich..

Trumps hoped to dispense with the contested convention, but that no longer looks likely..

Honestly..all politics and ideology aside? Absent him getting 1237, the GOP will nominate someone else, possibly Cruz while holding their nose..

Trump loses...Either the nomination, as an independent or as the GOP Nominee in a general election...

All polls have been hugely consistent in this prediction far beyond any margin of error..

He has no path to victory...Forget for a moment that he has mobilized Mainstream GOP, Dems, Minorities and hell even Pro-Life groups to turn against him in recent months..

Lets just think about Women...They constitute the majority of the country..


And that CNN poll is not an outlier. Virtually every poll done in the last month shows him with gigantic negatives among women: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). And since the Democratic Party already has more women voters than the Republicans do, this translates into a serious disadvantage in the fall.[/ex]
www.salon.com...



Overall, 73% of female voters in a mid-March CNN/ORC poll said they had a negative view of Trump, just 26% view him positively. That unfavorable number is up 14 points in the last few months: from 59% in December and 67% in late February. Even Republican women, who mostly have favorable views of Trump, are more likely to report unfavorable opinions now than they were a few months ago, 39% unfavorable in March vs. 29% in December. Among men, however, there has been no such shift, with 54% holding an unfavorable view in December, 52% in February and 57% now.


www.cnn.com...

He can not win...this is not political it is math...



In New York, Trump is on the cusp of 50% already (over it in some polls). Without Kasich in the race, he would break 50% easily.
Cruz is currently polling at 20%. He would need to make up 30% just to hold Trump below the 50% mark. In other words he would need all of Kasich votes, all the undecided and some of Trumps votes. Its very likely Trump would sweep New York with Kasich out of the race, like I said.

Your point is more valid in states where Trump is not as close to 50%, but particularly on the East Coast, Kasich is there to hold Trump down. He has even said so himself, claiming Trump wins if he drops out.

In terms of the presidential nomination, you and I are in agreement. Trump has no path and never did.


Right...Kasich is a spoiler for both Trump and Cruz...more so Cruz since he is the planned compromise in a contested convention.

Listen carefully to this prediction...At the GOP convention you will see unprecedented security...and they will not give the nomination to Trump. Absent a majority of delegates at 1237, they will give it to Cruz. Cruz will lose by a slim margin in the general election to Hillary.

Stats, Instinct, Projections...I don't see it turning out any other way.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 06:10 PM
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originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.



I think that inaccurately presumes that Kasich voters would go Trump.

Trumps unusually high "unfavorable" ratings...I think the highest amongst either Dems or GOP running...means that it is not likely that voters would easily switch to a Trump vote absent Kasich..

Trumps hoped to dispense with the contested convention, but that no longer looks likely..

Honestly..all politics and ideology aside? Absent him getting 1237, the GOP will nominate someone else, possibly Cruz while holding their nose..

Trump loses...Either the nomination, as an independent or as the GOP Nominee in a general election...

All polls have been hugely consistent in this prediction far beyond any margin of error..

He has no path to victory...Forget for a moment that he has mobilized Mainstream GOP, Dems, Minorities and hell even Pro-Life groups to turn against him in recent months..

Lets just think about Women...They constitute the majority of the country..


And that CNN poll is not an outlier. Virtually every poll done in the last month shows him with gigantic negatives among women: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). And since the Democratic Party already has more women voters than the Republicans do, this translates into a serious disadvantage in the fall.[/ex]
www.salon.com...



Overall, 73% of female voters in a mid-March CNN/ORC poll said they had a negative view of Trump, just 26% view him positively. That unfavorable number is up 14 points in the last few months: from 59% in December and 67% in late February. Even Republican women, who mostly have favorable views of Trump, are more likely to report unfavorable opinions now than they were a few months ago, 39% unfavorable in March vs. 29% in December. Among men, however, there has been no such shift, with 54% holding an unfavorable view in December, 52% in February and 57% now.


www.cnn.com...

He can not win...this is not political it is math...



In New York, Trump is on the cusp of 50% already (over it in some polls). Without Kasich in the race, he would break 50% easily.
Cruz is currently polling at 20%. He would need to make up 30% just to hold Trump below the 50% mark. In other words he would need all of Kasich votes, all the undecided and some of Trumps votes. Its very likely Trump would sweep New York with Kasich out of the race, like I said.

Your point is more valid in states where Trump is not as close to 50%, but particularly on the East Coast, Kasich is there to hold Trump down. He has even said so himself, claiming Trump wins if he drops out.

In terms of the presidential nomination, you and I are in agreement. Trump has no path and never did.


Right...Kasich is a spoiler for both Trump and Cruz...more so Cruz since he is the planned compromise in a contested convention.

Listen carefully to this prediction...At the GOP convention you will see unprecedented security...and they will not give the nomination to Trump. Absent a majority of delegates at 1237, they will give it to Cruz. Cruz will lose by a slim margin in the general election to Hillary.

Stats, Instinct, Projections...I don't see it turning out any other way.


I don't see any need to have a spoiler for Cruz. He has no chance of 1237. I do think it will eventually be a contested convention though and yes, there is no way Trump will will that.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 06:16 PM
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Every one will be said to be make or break from here out. The establishment wants Trump out. Cruz will be business as usual or even worse for the average person, but he's their man now.



posted on Apr, 1 2016 @ 06:18 PM
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originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.



I think that inaccurately presumes that Kasich voters would go Trump.

Trumps unusually high "unfavorable" ratings...I think the highest amongst either Dems or GOP running...means that it is not likely that voters would easily switch to a Trump vote absent Kasich..

Trumps hoped to dispense with the contested convention, but that no longer looks likely..

Honestly..all politics and ideology aside? Absent him getting 1237, the GOP will nominate someone else, possibly Cruz while holding their nose..

Trump loses...Either the nomination, as an independent or as the GOP Nominee in a general election...

All polls have been hugely consistent in this prediction far beyond any margin of error..

He has no path to victory...Forget for a moment that he has mobilized Mainstream GOP, Dems, Minorities and hell even Pro-Life groups to turn against him in recent months..

Lets just think about Women...They constitute the majority of the country..


And that CNN poll is not an outlier. Virtually every poll done in the last month shows him with gigantic negatives among women: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). And since the Democratic Party already has more women voters than the Republicans do, this translates into a serious disadvantage in the fall.[/ex]
www.salon.com...



Overall, 73% of female voters in a mid-March CNN/ORC poll said they had a negative view of Trump, just 26% view him positively. That unfavorable number is up 14 points in the last few months: from 59% in December and 67% in late February. Even Republican women, who mostly have favorable views of Trump, are more likely to report unfavorable opinions now than they were a few months ago, 39% unfavorable in March vs. 29% in December. Among men, however, there has been no such shift, with 54% holding an unfavorable view in December, 52% in February and 57% now.


www.cnn.com...

He can not win...this is not political it is math...



In New York, Trump is on the cusp of 50% already (over it in some polls). Without Kasich in the race, he would break 50% easily.
Cruz is currently polling at 20%. He would need to make up 30% just to hold Trump below the 50% mark. In other words he would need all of Kasich votes, all the undecided and some of Trumps votes. Its very likely Trump would sweep New York with Kasich out of the race, like I said.

Your point is more valid in states where Trump is not as close to 50%, but particularly on the East Coast, Kasich is there to hold Trump down. He has even said so himself, claiming Trump wins if he drops out.

In terms of the presidential nomination, you and I are in agreement. Trump has no path and never did.


Right...Kasich is a spoiler for both Trump and Cruz...more so Cruz since he is the planned compromise in a contested convention.

Listen carefully to this prediction...At the GOP convention you will see unprecedented security...and they will not give the nomination to Trump. Absent a majority of delegates at 1237, they will give it to Cruz. Cruz will lose by a slim margin in the general election to Hillary.

Stats, Instinct, Projections...I don't see it turning out any other way.


I don't see any need to have a spoiler for Cruz. He has no chance of 1237. I do think it will eventually be a contested convention though and yes, there is no way Trump will will that.


At that point trump drops out or goes 3rd party...either way, insufficient to win the general election.

He then can make a living on the news media circuit? he will be too controversial for mainstream networks..

he hasn't released his financials not because he is being audited, but because his declared worth is bloviating.

I have heard it described by insiders, that when declaring his net worth he assigns a net worth to the "Trump" name/brand in the Billions..

No doubt he is wealthy. Just not what he has claimed..

I think this campaign will cost him...depending on how much he can walk away with from the "loans" to his private entities he has gotten for the campaign. He has taken contributions from wealthy backers...but done so in a manner circumventing campaign finance regulations.

Trump is approaching a net loss..which I think is the most important factor in his running.




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