PredictIt: 73% chance of a GOP brokered convention, Rubio is the key figure

I believe if you want to really know what's going on in the election process, you should watch the betting markets:

Will Republicans have a brokered convention in 2016?

The probability that the GOP will have a brokered convention has surged around 20% in the last couple of days. The main reason is a story concerning Rubio that I haven't seen posted on this site:

Despite suspending his campaign, Sen. Marco Rubio is attempting to keep every delegate he won while running for president.

The unusual move reflects preparations for a contested convention this summer — and comes as Donald Trump backed away from an earlier pledge to support the Republican party's nominee if he is treated unfairly after winning more delegates than his rivals.
Rubio Makes Unprecedented Bid to Keep Delegates for Contested Convention

Since that news was reported, Trump's probability of wining the Republican presidential nomination at PredictIt has dropped by about 15%:

Will Donald Trump win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?

a reply to: Profusion

I also have commented a few times on ATS about the odds foreign casinos are putting this at. While I have mentioned it a few times in my social circle with a reaction of disgust from them, I've learned to keep those facts to my self while I'm not hiding behind a screen of anonymity.

Unfortunately those big billion dollar institutions don't have huge buildings from putting up bad sports odds or any other for that matter. While they are not always right, their books are still in the black. These are important things to keep an eye on if you don't want Hillary to hijack the country. She is still favored 2/1. Bold statement when money is on the line.

So my money (hypothetically, I would be on sports but not an election) are on this being brokered.

Trump is the only remaining path to a Republican win in November. Brokered convention = turnout killer = lose in November. No one will fall in line behind Cruz or Romney or Ryan.

The Republican establishment would clearly rather have Hillary win than Trump. It's insane and blatantly undemocratic in a way that is just so obviously, astoundingly foolish.

a reply to: Profusion

It proves no matter what comments Trump comes out with he is anti corrupt establishment and pro American.
The mask will really start to slip if Trump is cheated out of the nomination.

The GOP can not have a candidate that has 73% disapproval rating among women. That would be the end of the party.

I have noticed the media is shifting away from calling it "brokered covention" in favor of "contested convention".

I wonder who is behind the rebranding?

originally posted by: MrSpad
The GOP can not have a candidate that has 73% disapproval rating among women. That would be the end of the party.

The GOP is screwed either way with this.

If they go with someone else than Trump the party is screwed if they go with Trump ..........

We already know the next president isn't going to be from the GOP, but for their party to stay afloat they hae some tough choices to make.


If Clinton winds up as the other hack Gary Johnson may have a shot at it.

Lot's of editing at the wikipedia 'Brokered Convention' page lately.

The term "brokered" implies a strong role for political bosses, more common in the past and associated with deals made in proverbial "smoke-filled rooms", while the term "contested" is a more modern term for a convention where no candidate holds a majority but the role of party leaders is weaker in determining the eventual outcome.[5]

This article needs additional citations for verification. (March 2016)

en.m.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: MrSpad
The GOP can not have a candidate that has 73% disapproval rating among women. That would be the end of the party.

The soundbites lie...people ought to know that by now. Look a little deeper and see that Trump has been the strongest polling Republican candidate with women all along and still is. Cruz, Romney, etc are even worse. If weak polling with women voters dooms the party, they were doomed well before the election even started.

In other words, the objective truth is that it's the whole Republican party as it currently exists that women in general do not like or trust. It's not Trump's issue, it's a party issue. So it's kind of a "tallest midget" sort of award, but objectively, Trump is the strongest Republican option with women voters.

Beyond that, any reasonably honest review of the polls will show that Trump is the Republican candidate with the most crossover appeal in general and has been all along, and this is with mass media coverage that is so far shamefully biased. Trump is the only candidate with the potential to reinvent the Republican party and the Republican party is badly in need of it.

Once he has the nomination, I think we'll see Trump move to the center as usually every candidate does that on both sides. In particular I'd like to see Trump target women voters for their potential to decide the election. He could turn the party weakness into his own strength as there is a lot of room for growth there. In addition to women's issues, I'd like to see him make education a strong point, as it goes well with his overall campaign theme.

originally posted by: 11andrew34

originally posted by: MrSpad
The GOP can not have a candidate that has 73% disapproval rating among women. That would be the end of the party.

The soundbites lie...people ought to know that by now. Look a little deeper and see that Trump has been the strongest polling Republican candidate with women all along and still is. Cruz, Romney, etc are even worse. If weak polling with women voters dooms the party, they were doomed well before the election even started.

In other words, the objective truth is that it's the whole Republican party as it currently exists that women in general do not like or trust. It's not Trump's issue, it's a party issue. So it's kind of a "tallest midget" sort of award, but objectively, Trump is the strongest Republican option with women voters.

Beyond that, any reasonably honest review of the polls will show that Trump is the Republican candidate with the most crossover appeal in general and has been all along, and this is with mass media coverage that is so far shamefully biased. Trump is the only candidate with the potential to reinvent the Republican party and the Republican party is badly in need of it.

Once he has the nomination, I think we'll see Trump move to the center as usually every candidate does that on both sides. In particular I'd like to see Trump target women voters for their potential to decide the election. He could turn the party weakness into his own strength as there is a lot of room for growth there. In addition to women's issues, I'd like to see him make education a strong point, as it goes well with his overall campaign theme.

Only Trump thinks he has cross over appeal. Polling shows independents and Democrats have a strong dislike of him. Add in minorities, conservatives, and women and you have one of the worst polling Presidential candidates ever. Now Cruz or another GOP candidate will not win the White House but, they give the GOP a better chance at saving some the Senate and state and local races. And the hate for Cruz or any other brokered candidate is nowhere near as bad as it with Trump who has highly motivated the opposition to go out an vote and stop him. At the same time you have a good portion of the GOP who when having to decide between Trump and Clinton, just stay home.

Trump, Cruz or whomever is going lose the general election so the priority for the GOP is trying to save as much as they can in Congress, States and locals. If half the GOP sits home and the large numbers of people who Trump are motivated to vote it is a disaster that would end the party. And while the GOP has had problems with the Women's vote before it has never seen numbers this bad.