Russia, what would you do?

So it is no secret that Russia is in trouble. Its economy is shrinking, it has no credit, it has is trying bail out its key state Bank Russian Bank Bailout . It has announced in the middle of its attempt to reform its aging military defense spending cuts by 5%. Russia Defense cuts of all the things like the drop in the Rubel, inflation, rising food prices, new taxes etc. The most telling is defense cuts. Rebuilding the military has been Putin's number one goal. However with Russia's economy now slightly smaller than Mexico's, World economy rankings it is trying to remain a world military power.


If you are Russia you have a few big problems.

1. The Russian economy. Mostly dependent on natural gas and oil it is in a free fall with no likely change anytime soon. American fracking, Iran, Iraq and Libya increasing production everyday and the economic slow down in China reducing demand means oil and natural gas prices are not going up again for a long time. Outside of that Russia sells weapons, food and not much else. Its problems in its defense industry has meant that while it can design very capable modern war systems it can not build them in any large quantity with any quality. This had lead to the loss of key arms deals with places like India. When it comes to small arms Russia still builds some of the best but, China has been stealing markets with cheaper clones. The economy needs big fixes.

2. Ukraine/Crimea. Russia has alienated most of the World through its actions in Ukraine and Crimea. With only Afghanistan, Cuba, Nicaragua, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, a huge problem stands. Crimea itself is a huge mess and requires ton of money to get back on its feet, money Russia does not have. On top of that Russia has to remain in Eastern Ukraine or Ukraine will take it back from the nearly non existent rebel forces. Meanwhile Ukraine has Western aid pouring in and to make matters worse they have Chinese aid as well along with China jump starting Ukraine's defense industry with joint projects, helping an enemy and creating yet another competitor against Russian arms sales. And sanctions from Ukraine has cut off much needed western cash at a time Russia needs it more than ever. Ukraine has to be solved, sanctions must end.

3. Defense spending. The Russian military needs massive reforms and they have been working on them. It is however very expensive. Imagine Mexico trying maintain a massive military, that is the position Russia is in. Russia desperately needs a small professional military that can stand on a modern battlefield, That however requires money and almost nobody wants to join the military. So 1 year conscripts are used as a band aid. In response to Russian actions in Ukraine and posturing against NATO and neutral European states NATO has become more unified and increased defense spending, already out numbering Russia 7 to 1 that is the last thing Russia needs. Not to mention Sweden and Finland becoming unofficial members of the alliance. The military needs reforms but, their is no money for it.

4. Lack of international support. With friends like these who needs enemies. Russia few friends in the world seem to lack any loyalty to Russia at all. Nations like Syria which are propped up by Russia offer nothing in exchange. India, Cuba, Venezuela and Vietnam have all began moving toward the US. Belarus and the other former Soviet Republics are all feeling their way either towards the West or China. Iran and Russia had common cause in Syria but, rifts about who should be in control of Syria Iran or Russia has cooled refashions that were already troubled by Iran's pledge to flood the oil and natural gas markets. Even Serbia who has claimed neutrality between NATO and its longtime ally Russia has even seen the writing on the wall signing a cooperation agreement with NATO allowing NATO forces to access to Serbia. And while Serbia will not be joining NATO it clearly sees Russia as weak and NATO as the only game in town. And China. China has always been Russia's great hope. China however has failed to support Russia in Ukraine and Crimea and in fact has been aiding Ukraine. China failed to support Russia in Syria. And when things heated up between Turkey and Russia? China stepped in, with trade and coordination deals for Turkey to grab the trade Russia would be losing. China seems to see no problem with taking advantage of Russia's problems knowing Russia is helpless to do anything about it. Russia was once a key player among the Arab States and Africa but has lost all that to the West. Russia needs a global reset.

Those would be some of Russia's biggest problems. Now what do they do? What would you do? This is not a place to bash Russia for getting itself into this mess it simply a question of how do they get out of it?

Do you give up Crimea and Ukraine to get that much needed Western capital? How would you do that and not loose face? How do you fix your global image? What do you do with your military? How do you reform your economy? How do you deal with the Chinese who have done nothing to help bail you out of your economic problems and instead have used the time to steal your markets and trade with your enemies. How do you keep the remaining former Soviet Republics in your sphere of influence away from the West or China? Do you rebuff China and the West and go it alone? Do become a junior partner to the West or China giving up your great power status for protection and aid? Do you double down and keep on the same path? As the unrest spreads throughout Russia how do you handle it?

Keep in mind before you happily write off Russia, on what a Russian collapse would mean. Refugees flooding Europe in numbers unseen. Nukes that could end up anywhere. Military equipment that could end up anywhere. A likely collapse of most of the former Soviet Republics. This scenario so frightened the West in the 1990s that the West paid to keep Russia nuclear forces funded and its defense industry afloat and gave Russia a seat with the G7. If your the West do you step in and help Russia if things get bad?

Does somebody new have to step in and denounce everything Putin did so they can end things like Ukraine by painting Putin as a villain like the Soviets did with Stalin? Giving them a fresh start? Can Putin some how fix things himself? Where would you begin?

I love Russia, and I like their leader more then I like my own here in America. I respect him. Im not sure what they can do, but technology may be the key. They do have many brilliant minds over there, and gorgeous women. One of my close friends on Facebook is someone I met on here. Leonid Elenin. He is a great guy
Where there is a will, there is a way.

Push Putin to the point of having nothing to lose ... and the dude has nothing to lose.

I would have attacked Europe full-force as soon as Winter broke. But, that's just me.

You don't think the Saudis filled our oil reserves to the brink a couple months ago 'just because' do you? There have been some other tells over the past 18 months as well. You couldn't convince me we weren't at DEFCON 3.1 when those pumps were at full production though.

a reply to: MrSpad

I just came back from Russia, and everything you've described is nothing but a wet dream of Russia's enemies such as yourself.

Life goes on in Russia, people are happy, smiling, working, raising their children - nothing changed. No one cares about any sanctions, like I said nothing changed and life goes on.

Most people also like Putin and aprove of his leadership, just as they are happy about Crimeas return.

Another fact about Russian people - an average Russian is not afraid of hardship, and would rather starve to death then lose his independence/start complying with USA/anyone elses wishes. That is why no one was ever able to conquer Russia, that is why Russia exists today and will exist tomorrow.

Another fact is - Russia doesn't really need any one, but everyone needs Russia.

originally posted by: visitedbythem
I love Russia, and I like their leader more then I like my own here in America. I respect him. Im not sure what they can do, but technology may be the key. They do have many brilliant minds over there, and gorgeous women. One of my close friends on Facebook is someone I met on here. Leonid Elenin. He is a great guy
Where there is a will, there is a way.

Have you been getting into the paint chips again?...Russia is extremely corrupt, not saying we aren't, but nowhere near that level.

a reply to: MrSpad

They should join NATO, well, propose a new organization, and join that. One with ALL allies from both sides.

Imagine what the US and Russia could do TOGETHER.

I always said, we should be as one.

As crazy as it sounds....I would be happy to see both countries become one nation.

Literally, one country.

The world would never suck as much as it does now.

A new age would emerge. It would be great.

EDIT TO ADD:
If we had pushed for this after the soviet union fell, the world would be on its way to becoming a type 1 civilization.

a reply to: tadaman

While at first glance it's a nice concept, it will never happen due to fundamentally different world view between Russia and USA.

Can you imagine Russian planes bombing Yugoslavia along side nato?

Another thing is - USA is a control freak, where Russia only deals with other countries based on mutual respect. Joining nato would mean not having equal decision making powers, but becoming another tool of America to destabalize the world even further. No Russian would ever want that.

a reply to: Velatropa24

In my scenario we would try something new. Form a new union. The US wouldn't exist anymore and neither would Russia.

It would be the newest nation on the block and redefine ALL geopolitical stances.

There would be no bombing in the east. The UN and NATO would have to convince us that any military action aligns with our new ideology.

One of scientific progress and space exploration.

In essence we would see the earth as home to an old world we wish to break away from.

It would be the seed for a break away civilization.

Earth would be dumb to fight over. I would ask for titans and teraformers. We would be astronauts and explorers. Not an earth based military force.

Mars and the moon would be what we fought the rest of the world for.

My dream I guess. We need Russia and the US for that to come true.

One nation under the stars, indivisible, with glory through exploration, and freedom in our solar system for all.

Maybe empty some of those billionaire bank accounts of puty putes criminal friends who have bankrupted that country with the corruption & cronyism that exists.

K~

Did Adam have as much hatred in his heart as you do Bro? I think not

a reply to: MrSpad
Russian dept 990 billion
USA dept 18 trillion
Maybe they are doing something right

Who I dont like is Turkey. They need to be slapped like a mouthy disrespectful bitch.

a reply to: MrSpad

Brilliant synopsis.

In the recent widely publicised joke by Vladimir Putin at John Kerry's expense over the Secretary managing his own luggage " because the U.S. Secretary of State was hand delivering a really big bribe."

When Shakespeare is quoted “In jest, there is truth." hits close to home on the solution.

The west and the Kremlin just need to collaborate in providing a face saving device for the Russian public to digest that makes it seem like Putin's vision of The Russian Federation has won somehow by Russia returning return Crimea in exchange for a whole bunch of economic incentives and nonsensical promises....

Perhaps a different shade of October 1962?

Problem solved ......

If I'm in control in Russia...
I make prince William like me...
Then in the future when he reigns as King...
I use him to help me become part of Europe...

originally posted by: tadaman
a reply to: MrSpad

They should join NATO, well, propose a new organization, and join that. One with ALL allies from both sides.

Imagine what the US and Russia could do TOGETHER.

I always said, we should be as one.

As crazy as it sounds....I would be happy to see both countries become one nation.

Literally, one country.

The world would never suck as much as it does now.

A new age would emerge. It would be great.

EDIT TO ADD:
If we had pushed for this after the soviet union fell, the world would be on its way to becoming a type 1 civilization.

We did push for this. Russia was not interested. Putin never left the cold war.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

I didnt know that. Wow, that sucks monkey balls.

They should have made peace. We would be kicking ass now. The world would be awesome.

They should join the EU at least now.

originally posted by: tadaman
a reply to: MrSpad

They should join NATO, well, propose a new organization, and join that. One with ALL allies from both sides.

Imagine what the US and Russia could do TOGETHER.

I always said, we should be as one.

As crazy as it sounds....I would be happy to see both countries become one nation.

Literally, one country.

The world would never suck as much as it does now.

A new age would emerge. It would be great.

EDIT TO ADD:
If we had pushed for this after the soviet union fell, the world would be on its way to becoming a type 1 civilization.

For awhile it looked as if Russia would join NATO. They joined NATO's PfP, NATO formed a special NATO-Russia Council, Russia was invited to the G7 becoming the G8, the conducted joint exercises with NATO, the US set up ways to fund to Russian nuclear weapons program and defense industry so all those experts would stay in Russia and not end up in Iran or North Korea, Russia had no problem with the growth of NATO because it was thinking of joining. Then Russia declared it was a great power and the great powers do not join alliances it leads them. It also did not like the idea that nations like Iceland and Luxembourg has equal say in NATO. It started looking to China to be its partner something China encouraged but, never came through for Russia on anything when it needed it.

originally posted by: Velatropa24
a reply to: tadaman

While at first glance it's a nice concept, it will never happen due to fundamentally different world view between Russia and USA.

Can you imagine Russian planes bombing Yugoslavia along side nato?

Another thing is - USA is a control freak, where Russia only deals with other countries based on mutual respect. Joining nato would mean not having equal decision making powers, but becoming another tool of America to destabalize the world even further. No Russian would ever want that.

Actually one of Russia's beefs with joining NATO was that all nations had an equal vote. It wanted special status because it did not see how the US could allow NATO policy to be stopped by a single nation like Iceland if the US, UK and France wanted it. Greece blocking Macedonia from joining, Turkey blocking Cyprus etc. Russia's view is that it leads not joins because that is what great powers do.

a reply to: MrSpad

Russia will not be able to recover until Putin is out of office. Putin has told so many lies to the Russian people that he has backed himself into the corner. He cannot withdraw from Crimea / Ukraine as it would run contrary to the reasons he gave for being there in the first place. Factor in the "all Ukrainians are fascist nazis" and it will look like he was defeated by the fictitious enemies.

All that is left is to constantly blame the west / nato and to find hot spots that allows him to get involved to distract the Russian people. Unless Putin is able to handpick his successor he will remain as dictator in chief. He cant run the risk of a political enemy becoming President as they would go after Putin for corruption.

When Russia can't keep track of all the lies they tell, resulting in russian media falling for and reporting the lies, you know there is trouble on the horizon.

I'm with those in support of Russia.

It is a little like Australia in some respects - large landmass with a relatively small population (low density) Like Australia, they have every single thing they need to exist within their borders and more than enough to export.

The monetary system that was invented by whoever is just a fabrication to keep people in line and a basis to trade off. It's a sham and a lie. If Russia said screw you to the international establishment and did a post WW2 Germany, and create a new currency, it would become super rich overnight.