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Trump polling over 50% nationally...the ceiling is broken

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posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 03:32 PM
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a reply to: muse7

He has the highest favorability of the final 4 according to this poll...and others...it is starting to sway. He is also rising...The fact he can take now 50% of anything away from candidates still in...is very telling.

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net...

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net...
edit on 03pm31pmf0000002016-03-15T15:34:04-05:000304 by matafuchs because: (no reason given)

edit on 03pm31pmf0000002016-03-15T15:34:45-05:000345 by matafuchs because: (no reason given)




posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:08 PM
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originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: muse7

He has the highest favorability of the final 4 according to this poll...and others...it is starting to sway. He is also rising...The fact he can take now 50% of anything away from candidates still in...is very telling.

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net...

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net...


Thank you for trying to link the most obscure polls on the internet to try and reinforce your claim.

If you have to dig that hard to find it, its probably not accurate



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:22 PM
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a reply to: Sremmos80

Idiots Vs. a loose cannon. Yep, single issue. yep. More than enough grounds for choice....



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:41 PM
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originally posted by: RoadCourse
I will vote for this dude because barely any politicians likes him.
Absolutely NO other reason.

Coming from someone who sees 'red flags' multiple times on a daily basis....
it speaks volume to me.


I did for the same reason . Only add no mainstream group likes him. And Trump or Sanders will be indebted to no one if elected .Trump is using his own money and Sanders is relying on the common folk.

edit on 4201631040320164 by Gothmog because: add



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:46 PM
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a reply to: angeldoll

All I can say is NOOOOOOO!



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:51 PM
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a reply to: 11andrew34


You're conflating swing states with battleground states. Every candidate knows (really ought to know) which states are swing states and target some of them as part of their electoral strategy. The battleground states are the ones that end up too close to call until the actual voting.


If you're going to insist on petty ill-conceived ad hominems, maybe we could clog the thread debating semantics?

I'm not conflating anything. The number makeup and size of states' electorates are not fixed. Do you know that for instance, between 2000 and 2012, the population of North Carolina grew by about 20%? Or that between 2004 and 2008 the number of North Carolinians identifying as Republican dropped from 35% to 26%? Do you happen to know what that number is today or what it will be in November?

More to the point, you're assigning your own favored connotations to words and ignoring common vernacular (oh no! Is common redundant?) as well as predominate usage by professional pollsters, etc. Why don't you cite 10 examples from this decade where a distinction is being made and I'll find 20 where it is isn't?


And as for the rest of your analysis...putting aside the issue of one poll vs another for the time being, I think it's silly to make a straight line projection from here to November. Heck, even an honest straight line projection would at least account for Trump's upward trend vs Hillary's downward trend.


Not an analysis and I wasn't making any predictions. I countered the OP's use of a poll of GOP voters to draw a conclusion about the likelihood of Trump winning the general election with recent head-to-head polls that suggest a different outcome. Then I was challenged with "What really matters are the swing states. What do the polls say in those states?" and I provided the polling results from the RCP source I was already using. I've had to field a bunch of responses from posters holding me to more rigorous standards than those posters they agree with.

I'd expect a reasonable (honest? really?) analysis of Trump's increased support among GOP voters to take into account the effects of winnowing and bandwagon hopping.


Remember, she's going to have to be indicted probably no later than this summer when they've gone through all the emails. That and she has clearly been struggling with the pace of the campaign so far. It's more likely than not that we are already passed peak Hillary.


All bets are off if she's indicted but whether that will or will not happen is completely a matter of speculation. You'll have to qualify your statement about "struggling with the pace" because I'm not sure what you're referring to. I'm not a Hillary supporter (I'm not supporting anyone as of now) but my gut feeling is that Hillary will get the nomination and that in either case, the rarely-discussed-on-ATS anti-Trump sentiment will be enough of a boost for either Democratic candidate to win the general election.
edit on 2016-3-15 by theantediluvian because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:57 PM
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a reply to: CrazyWater

But I am sure this one is ok because it is DNC, right?

today.yougov.com...



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 04:58 PM
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There's one constant here we've seen for months now. As candidates drop out, Trump's numbers increase. Has happened each step of the way.

These polls aren't accurate due to the candidates on both sides still running. What is accurate to assume based on Trump's trajectory is that as a few of the remaining candidates drop out, his numbers will continue to rise. There's nothing suggesting otherwise.

Then we get down to Trump vs Shillary or Bernie. Neither Shillary or Bernie supporters are going to show out in decent numbers for the other democratic nominee so the democratic numbers will either plummet due to one of those two leaving, or as I suggest, if Shillary gets the nomination we'll see some Bernie supporters swing to Trump.

Why? This election is about anti-establishment sentiment. Bernie supporters hate the establishment more than the do Trump and Bernie supporters hate Shillary more than they hate Trump.

And this situation causes current polling to mean little.

The common sense aspect say these issues are the important factors:

1) Trump keeps increasing his base as others drop out
2) Shillary has a limited ceiling which is being increasingly threatened by Bernie. She doesn't have the young vote.
3) Shillary has done well in notorious Republican states which won't help her in Nov. Much more concerning is she's doing quite poorly in notorious democratic states, losing to Bernie. That suggests she'll do poorly in Nov in those states due to the crossover Bernie has with Trump in those states.
4) Trump, the the GOP turnout proves this, is increasingly pulling democrats and independents into his following



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 05:33 PM
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So YouGov reports Trump hits over 50% in poll favorability. But then also reports 51% of Americans think he is a fraud and a phony.

Most Americans Agree Trump is a 'Fraud' and a 'Phony'




posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 05:59 PM
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Trump should give a big thank you to the progressive terrorists from Chicago.



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 11:27 PM
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The only thing I have to add would be to challenge you to imagine what his numbers would be like if EVERY SINGLE NEWS OUTLET wasn't out to get him. Honestly, no candidate has EVER taken this kind of media beating.



posted on Mar, 15 2016 @ 11:37 PM
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The primary polls are accurate, the head to heads aren't, I looked back in history, until there are two people left, the head to heads aren't really a good indication at this point.



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 01:13 AM
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I keep saying this but nobody seems to think about it, Trump with all these attacks against him by these superpacs ads is being heavily vetted by the GOP establishment, when he survives he emerges a stronger candidate.
The DNC and even Sanders himself is not vetting Hillary through this process, even Obama was vetted by the Clinton machine in 2008 and emerged stronger and went on to win the general. The democrats cheer when Sanders says "I have heard enough about the emails" and Hillary is smiling like a Cheshire cat, and they all have a group hug and high five each other smugly thinking how much better they are than the GOP side. This does not prepare them at all for the attacks and the damage the general will bring. You think Donald was tough in the primaries, just wait, he is going to rip her to shreds in the general. I think he will win.
edit on 16-3-2016 by Blue_Jay33 because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 01:24 AM
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originally posted by: veracity
a reply to: Krazysh0t

some people (ahem, low information conservative voters) cannot admit they were wrong and will become delusional making up lies and believing them



Maybe you forgot that low information voters are who elected Obama? He won on the topics of government spending, immigration reform and national security. Better get used to saying "President Trump."



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 03:27 AM
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originally posted by: plewis51
So YouGov reports Trump hits over 50% in poll favorability. But then also reports 51% of Americans think he is a fraud and a phony.

Most Americans Agree Trump is a 'Fraud' and a 'Phony'




It is easy, he is smarter, talks better, and has been caught in many less lies than the other liars.


They are basically saying this guy is likely trash, but miles ahead of every other candidate and far more interesting.

And also, something new, and different.

The National Enquirer has been trashing this guy for over 30 years lol, people want to see him WIN.

And to hopefully tell ALOT of real scumbags, and inherent losers....YOU"RE FIRED!!!



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 06:39 AM
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Hello ATS and perhaps America,

As a long time appreiciater of this site and the discussion that goes on within I just have one question!

And please be aware that I come from the great land down under so really have no cards in the game besides the international impact it may have.

Why is everyone so up in arms about trump?

From my seat the republicans put up the best they thought they had and trump has smashed them.

Now you can get into a debate about the why's and the what fors but the reality is the voters of your fine country have decided that this is the guy they want at is point in time!

Trump is a very smart man regardless of what any one says.

He got a tone for how the country is feeling and he based his platform of this and people seem to be lapping it up.

Is it his fault that your country allowed all your manufacturing to be exported.

Is it his fault that that people employ people who are willing to work for less than americans are? I say no'

But he is shining a light on these things which is hitting at the core of what I assume most Americans are worried about.

For all the comments I see on this site about bagging trump and he is this and that the middle class of your country is saying they need help.

Do I think trump is the perfect answer hell no.

But u till someone else outside of your current political spere can come up with a better answer don't fight between yourselfs as americans, but find a way to find the light to a bettrer day for all of us.

Any way just my ramblings! Good luck! Just don't elect Hillary!!!!!!



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 08:01 AM
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a reply to: matafuchs

This poses huge problems for the GOP. I can't see him winning a brokered convention no matter how many primaries he wins or how many delegates he has on side. Too many within his own party don't like or want him and it would appear many believe they can work with Clinton more than him.

They also also have the problem if they don't run him as nominee many GOP people will not even vote on the day.

I like Trump a lot. He is the perfect "Romantic Dream" of what a politician should be. He speaks like the common person and tells them what they want to hear. I'm hoping if he does succeed and win his infectious charisma will spread to Australia and someone like him decides to run.



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 08:08 AM
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originally posted by: phatpackage
a reply to: matafuchs

This poses huge problems for the GOP. I can't see him winning a brokered convention no matter how many primaries he wins or how many delegates he has on side. Too many within his own party don't like or want him and it would appear many believe they can work with Clinton more than him.

They also also have the problem if they don't run him as nominee many GOP people will not even vote on the day.

I like Trump a lot. He is the perfect "Romantic Dream" of what a politician should be. He speaks like the common person and tells them what they want to hear. I'm hoping if he does succeed and win his infectious charisma will spread to Australia and someone like him decides to run.


It's a good point you make. In the UK we have a man similar to Trump in style and message, Nigel Farage. IN exactly the same way Trump is attacked and accused by the media of being Hitler reborn , as is Farage. One only has to look beyond the media bias to realise that is untrue. It is my hope that the UK public is geven some courage by Trump and votes no to Europe and elects a man like Farage in 2020.



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 08:25 AM
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If Trump gets elected president wont he immediately become what is essentially a lame duck?

Democrat controlled houses won't vote for his legislation and so many republicans don't like him i can't see republican houses ratifying his legislation either....



posted on Mar, 16 2016 @ 08:58 AM
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Five of Six states...if the GOP does not wake up from its wet dream of who they thought the candidate will be the election will be handed to the DNC...on a platter.

As stated in this thread, Trump has taken the blows from his own party and has survived. He did this also with spending the least of any candidate. The world is also being exposed to just how corrupt the political system is. We can talk about, make TV shows about it but when it is RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOU it is hard not to see.

There will be 2 choices this fall...Trump or Clinton. He also will not attack her. He is a defensive person. He allows you to attack first, responds, and then if it fails you look like the bully. He did it to the entire GOP field. Anyone who has attacked him is gone. Even Clinton's sexism foray was nixed very quickly.

The next big decision will be the VP whispers...




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