a reply to: eriktheawful
What happens if Trump wins the popular vote by 3 million but still loses.What then?
Assuming a two-party system and equal turnout, we could win with just 21.84% of the popular vote, with our opponent picking up 78.16% -- a
56.31% point spread.
How we compute this
We want the most "bang for our buck." That is, we need to win the states which have a disproportional influence in the electoral college relative to
its population. And we want to just barely win those states.
For example, Wyoming is a great state to win. It has just 0.18% of the nation's population (563,626 people out of 308,745,538 total) and yet 0.56% of
electoral college (3 out of 538).
We want to grab the most disproportionately influential states. We'll take the following states.
The number after the state is an "Influence Factor": (% of Electoral College seats) / (% of Total Population). This is a reflection of the state's
disproportional influence. The higher the number, the more disportionate this state's influence is. Understandably, the smaller states typically have
higher Influence Factors, since the Electoral College guarantees them three Electoral College seats.
Washington, DC 2.86
North Dakota 2.56
Rhode Island 2.18
South Dakota 2.11
New Hampshire 1.74
West Virginia 1.55
New Mexico 1.39
South Carolina 1.12
Our opponent has won 11 states: California, New York, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Virginia.
This gives us 271 electoral votes (one more than we need!). If we take just over 50% of the votes in each of those states, but 0 in any others, we get
a total of 67,442,555 nationwide. The losing candidate has won a whopping 241,302,983.
Wow...just something to mull over.