The GOP splitter strategy is now coming into it's crucial stage

The GOP designed this race from the start

There are many saying that Kasich should get out of the race to help Rubio. This, in my view, is a smokescreen.

Last year the GOP designed the race to explicitly stop an outsider from ever having the chance to win the GOP nomination. The analysis of the splitter strategy they implemented tells me that no outsider can ever win the nomination again in any GOP race (under the current rules).

This particular strategy was adopted to stop Cruz but it is going to work against Trump also.

Firstly the plan was to run many candidates to reduce the delegates for any one candidate in the early rounds.
Secondly the plan called for moving around states to place more in the proportional rounds - and also hand picking the states that would be moved in the schedule.

The plan has worked perfectly. Donald Trump has won 10 of the first 15 states and yet is less than 100 delegates in front. That's just the difference of two winner takes all states (actually less given that Florida offer 90 delegates)

So it's still all to play for despite the apparent view that Trump is romping to the nomination.


The 'hint' of manipulation

Now the more important part of this.

Kasich is still in the race by design.

In Ohio, Rubio is going to 'hint' to his supporters that they should vote for Kasich - This will give him an easy win in Ohio and he will take all the delegates, stunting Trumps progress and keeping him within easy distance.

In Florida, Kasich is going to 'hint' to his supporters that they should vote for Rubio, enabling Rubio a great chance to take Florida. Now I suspect behind the scenes they are going to try and rope Cruz into this scam too. Cruz has no chance in Florida, but he will command c10% of the vote. With him on board, hinting to his voters to go for Rubio, it will pretty much ensure a Rubio Florida win. Roping Cruz in to the game will be harder, but not impossible. The lesser of two evils for him is a Rubio Florida win as it will keep Cruz close to Trump in delegates.

Now you might argue that if Kasich was out of the race then it might have the same effect, but it doesn't. With him in, the GOP can stunt Trump (the outsider) in Ohio.

This of course sounds like a conspiracy theory - and that is because it is. However, Bill Cristal actually outlined the above (or as close to it without saying it outright) today. I think he let it slip by accident and will probably get a telling off.

Bill Cristal let's the 'hinting' strategy slip out...


Watch Ohio and Florida voter swings

Watch the votes in Ohio and Florida and look out for vote swings from Kasich > Rubio in Florida and Rubio > Kasich in Ohio. Watch also for praise being heaped on the relevant candidate by the relevant conspirator leading up to the election... or even communications to the ground teams of each campaign...

I have said all along that the real race was always between Rubio and Bush - no one else has a chance. Bush got pulled because the 911 heat was too strong. I think Trump scared the living daylights out of some very powerful men with his outing of that issues. Now Bush is out there is only one winner - Rubio.

Cruz, I suspect, will deal for a top job to play along - perhaps the Supreme Court. He knows he is done - if he couldn't get a lead after the key southern states (which he didn't of course) he has little chance. His most effective play right now is to use his voters to give the GOP what they want.

a reply to: UKTruth

I live in Ohio and I wouldn't vote for Kasich if you paid me.

Also, we are not unsophisticated hicks who can't think for ourselves. I would place a wager that Trump wins Ohio.

a reply to: Metallicus

Let's see how it plays out - it won't take every Rubio supporter in Ohio to flip.
Are you a Rubio voter?

I also live in Ohio and every voter i talk to laughs at Kasich's run and alot of them do have issues with Rubio and his boarder stance. Cruz on the other hand has a few followers but it's mostly Trump bc the GOP hates him so much.

EDIT: just to add, there is a lot of republicans in this state who have some very strong feelings towards the establishment republicans and i don't mean the warm fuzzy kind.

a reply to: UKTruth

You forget that the voters are mad as hell at the establishment and not taking anything other than an outsider this election.

I am ordering extra jiffypop for the Clinton vs. Trump match.

originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: Metallicus

Let's see how it plays out - it won't take every Rubio supporter in Ohio to flip.
Are you a Rubio voter?

I realize I should have an answer for you, but I still don't know who I am going to vote for at this point. I don't like any of the candidates and I was probably going to vote Carson before he dropped out. I think I might be forced to pick Trump or Cruz.

a reply to: UKTruth

The establishment is scared. The next president will be either Trump or Sanders and while they differ on policy both are going to do their best do dismantle the current power structure in DC.

a reply to: NewzNose

Spoiler alert... Hill Clinton beats Donald Perot.

Quick edit I hate that I'm pretty sure that's the way this goes down, super Tuesday turned into kill a bottle Tuesday.

a reply to: Aazadan

Hilary is around 500 delegates ahead, half way to the nomination.

originally posted by: Aazadan
a reply to: UKTruth

The establishment is scared. The next president will be either Trump or Sanders and while they differ on policy both are going to do their best do dismantle the current power structure in DC.

Perception is the operating factor in the way Presidents are chosen. The GOP will not let a geeky clown be their standard bearer. They have the "family values" reputation to protect and Donald doesn't quite measure up in that regard either. Donald's only alternative is to go 3rd party. That will be a good thing. He will still lose but we need more than just the GOP and dembs.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Aazadan

Hilary is around 500 delegates ahead, half way to the nomination.

If Hillay takes it (and she is ahead) then Trump will win.

originally posted by: Aazadan
a reply to: UKTruth

The establishment is scared.

Do you honestly think the military/industrial/corporate oligarchy elite is scared of a wealthy entertainer? They order the candidates to jump and the candidates ask "how high"

a reply to: UKTruth
I'm old enough to not really care who gets POTUS. It's a great day if I wake up. As such, I could sit back and watch the rude surprises either Hillary or Trump bring to the world stage.

On one hand the outrageous shenanigans of Bubba, as First Dude, entertaining the wives of folks meeting with President. Not to mention the green-eyed monster going ballistic if he has an affair with one of them.

On the other hand Trump would gut the GOP, maybe remake it into a bigger, more inclusive party. Mount Bullmoose over the fireplace and allow everyman to participate in democracy.

In either case Bubba and Trump would still golf regularly and advise each other.

a reply to: UKTruth

Had to reply to just to say that I am in awe of your post! As an american, I still cannot grasp to this whole GOP double speak process. lol.

I live in Ohio and I wouldn't vote for Kasich if you paid me

That's because he has compassion (allegedly).

a reply to: Aazadan

Trump is in a three man race with a marginal lead. If it's him and Hillary you don't need to pounder where my vote will go, but a lot of Republicans dont like Trump. He's abrasive, not really a conservative, and Democrats have an edge right now as up until now Republicans haven't had someone people stood behind before this. He has one hundred delegates ahead of Cruz. Don't think he's as powerful as you think, Perot had the same fate, and Trump hasn't won it yet.

originally posted by: roaland
I also live in Ohio and every voter i talk to laughs at Kasich's run and alot of them do have issues with Rubio and his boarder stance. Cruz on the other hand has a few followers but it's mostly Trump bc the GOP hates him so much.

EDIT: just to add, there is a lot of republicans in this state who have some very strong feelings towards the establishment republicans and i don't mean the warm fuzzy kind.

I'm in Ohio as well, and while I am not all fired up for Kasich, some of the people I know, think he would do a good job, while remaining essentially unelectable, nationally. Others I know, hate him with a passion.

We did sort of a Walker-lite here in Ohio, with a lot of modifications that public sector unions fought hard against. However, our pension systems were restructured to be much more robust, and will be around and solvent without any bail-outs required, (according to the actuaries, anyway) for at least 30 years.

In return, retirement ages for cops and firefighters (I was a firefighter) were increased from age 48 and 25 years of service, to age 54 and 25 years service....hmmmm....maybe it's 52, but I'm too lazy to check. This rolls the numbers much further out, by increasing years of service for those who start young, and reduces length of payout for post retirees.

And I have to say it was accomplished ingeniously. A legal "double-dipping" was emplaced, called the DROP. One would legally retire, then enter the mini/extra pension DROP investment plan, for from 1 to eight years. All the money that had been going into the pension was deposited to that account, and the person would keep working without any real changes, and still get the same pay. If a person stayed even one day over 8 years, they forfeited the entire amount. Ultimately, one could accumulate between a third and half a million dollars, besides their regular pension, if they stayed the full 8 years. Huge incentive....especially for the guys who had been taken to the cleaners, by exes.

Net result was that right after the first wave of stayers finished their eight, it was easy to justify rolling back the age standards, which had been hard won and fought for by the unions years before in much higher inflation times, and under the argument that it is a young man's game. Basically, they bought the old guys off, in exchange for future cost offsets.

Personally, I like it, because now my state is not and will not be in the dire straights that New Jersey, California, and a few other states are in. But it didn't tear us up, as happened in Wisconsin. I personally elected not to DROP, and just took normal retirement at age 55 with 25 years service. It actually is a young man's game, unless you have branched into some sort of desk job. Most of the people I worked with either thought I was nuts, or admired the walking away from all that cash. But, I had observed many many people deteriorate physically over the last years of their carers....and a few die shortly after retirement.

I look at it like this. I basically bought 8 years of my life and health for half a millon bucks. And I'm comfortable. But most of the hatred for Kasich, you hear out of Ohio is driven by public sector unions, who mobilized heavily to fight against (to my mind) reasonable cuts. But no one likes to give stuff back.

A couple other points about him.....Ohio is in pretty decent financial shape, largely due to his careful splitting of the pains and gains between the unios and the citizenry at large. And I suspect he was emplaced as one of the potential mainstream GOP picks early, because the choice of Cleveland for the Convention, made well over a year ago, seemed strange to me. Despite the overall state doing pretty well, Cleveland is more like Detroit, than any large city that is growing. It's much more af a somewhat crumbling Industrial town, than any kind of jewel of progress. But, Kasich could be presented as a job saver/preserver/creator Governor, in his home state from there, should he catch on with the public at large.

Ohio has always been considered a "key" state, like Florida. But, he didn't catch on....not because he wouldn't be good...but because he has about zero showmanship. And of course, in the event of a brokered Convention, he is still perfectly placed as a compromise candidate, having not pissed off too many people outside of Ohio, but also being a low key and demonstrably get stuff done kind of guy.

Anyway....that's my retired union Ohioan take from here.

Be well.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Aazadan

Trump is in a three man race with a marginal lead. If it's him and Hillary you don't need to pounder where my vote will go, but a lot of Republicans dont like Trump. He's abrasive, not really a conservative, and Democrats have an edge right now as up until now Republicans haven't had someone people stood behind before this. He has one hundred delegates ahead of Cruz. Don't think he's as powerful as you think, Perot had the same fate, and Trump hasn't won it yet.

Most Republicans (candidates) aren't really conservatives. They're typically Ultra-Liberal spenders, Ultra-Liberal in the realm of involvement in foreign wars, and Ultra-Liberal in terms of wanting a Big Federal Government to limit the rights of individuals. Many have been confused into thinking things like involvement in foreign wars, controlling personal choice and the huge debt spending they've done hand-in-hand with Dems since the beginning of the Reagan administration are conservative ideals, but they're simply not. I can't think of a single conservative in the race for the GOP nomination.

As for Trump - the more the GOP fights against their leading candidate, the more I feel as though I will most likely vote for him, should he get the nomination and be facing off against Hillary. Maybe it's all contrived to make us think that Trump is an "outsider" and he's really not, but it seems like they really don't want him, and so, I kind of do. I also think some of the more extreme ridiculousness he's put out there are not things he would really do, but were just meant to fire up the dum-dum base and get them locked in first. I believe he could actually moderate into something useful.

After that - should he become president, I'm 90% sure he'll either fall in line like they all do, be assassinated, or, actually manage to break through and create some real change. Cynically, I assume that if he is successful in doing so, the BIG big powers of the world will do whatever it takes and kill as many people as they wish to in order to secure their place. Trump isn't one of them. He is, after all, a mere 8-billionaire.

Romney has now openly called for exactly what I was suggesting - Rubio voters to swing to Kasich in Ohio. Just Ohio alone not going to Trump will knock him off his delegate course to the nomination. If Trump loses Florida too then he almost certainly wont get to the vital 50% of delegates.

One thing I forgot to mention is that in a brokered convention , Trumps delegates will only be bound to him on the first vote at the Cleveland conference. If there is no majority after the first vote, Trumps delegates will become unbound and they can switch to Rubio. I believe its the GOP that will have a large hand in who the Trump delegates actually are.

Not looking good for The Don.

a reply to: UKTruth

I live in Ohio, the Trump Hate is strong here. I'll be surprised if he can win in Ohio. I've seen nothing but hate for him here.

Then again I've seen nothing but hate for Hillary here too, but I suspect she'll still win somehow...