The potential demise of the EU and beyond

a reply to: slider1982

In a nutshell, UK would stay in what used to be the European Economic Community, but not in a European Union which is acting more and more like a federal government with power to impose laws, but in practice doesn't have anywhere near the communal political support and legitimacy of the US Federal Government for instance.

In USA, Federal elections for Congress & President are major and critical. Who were the last three EU Presidential candidates? Where did they campaign? What were their platforms? Nobody knows or gives a crap, and so they don't want privileged burrocrats telling them what to do because they feel like they have no power to change it. People feel this way frequently even with unitary and long-established governments.

The EU is a modern day Holy Roman Empire, but without a Charlemagne---just accountants and pettifoggery.

a reply to: Flanker86

The idea that the EU was set up for the goal to "invade Siberia" is preposterous. There has never been anybody in EU with remotely that kind of ambition, balls or capability.

Detractors believe: EU was set up to fulfill some academicians dissertation projects, and guarantee tax-free government pensions to people who feel, emotionally, that Western European nationalism and cultural distinctions are "problematic", but to be super sensitive in light of colonial history, other nationalism and cultures are legitimate.

a reply to: mbkennel

Hallelujah - someone who finally gets it and can express it in a brief, accurate and succinct way.

If the UK votes to leave the EU it might be a good thing .

For too long European Policy has been controlled by unDemocratic forces.

It is nonsense to believe they won't be readmitted anytime it suits them.

In the meantime the Irish Government will make things as easy as it is possible to imagine for UK commerce.

As many notional and theoretical Corporate relocations as are desired will be examined with firmly closed eyes in Ireland.

The only land border the UK will have with an EU nation will be wide open. As it is today.

A lot of UK trucks will have Irish registration plates.

Nothing else will hurt business.

After the failed coup in Turkey key EU supporters of insurrection forces have destroyed any possibility of coercing Turkey into the EU and have set the stage for the disintegration of NATO. The EU has no chance of success even though some further subversive and chaotic activity will go on in Turkey for a while. The hope of the EU is now clear.
They want to use the Turkish police force as a provocation against certain segments of the Turkish society hoping for extended street chaos. The US is part of this but it is not yet clear to what extent.

originally posted by: grainofsand
a reply to: Soloprotocol

So what?
The settled European nationals already living in the UK will not be kicked out if we leave the EU so similar reciprocal arrangements are likely to be agreed for Brits.
Such a drama queen lol

Straight from the horses mouth.

Robert Peston: Now, there’s a lot of anxiety among migrants who’ve come here from the rest of the EU about whether they’ll be allowed to stay. There’s also quite a lot of anxiety among Brits living in the rest of Europe. What would you say to them?

May: What I’d say is that, at the moment we’re still a member of the EU, and the arrangements still continue, so there is no change to their position currently. But of course, as part of the negotiation, we will need to look at this question of people who are here in the UK from the EU, and I want to be able to ensure that we’re able to not just guarantee a position for those people, but guarantee the position for British citizens who are over in other member states, in other countries in Europe and living there.

Peston: So you would like people both… you’d like Brits abroad and migrants here to stay? Forever basically?

May: Well, nobody necessarily stays anywhere forever. But I think what’s important…

Peston: But at their choice?

May: What’s important is there will be a negotiation here as to how we deal with that issue of people who are already here and who have established a life here and Brits who’ve established a life in other countries within the European Union. And that is, their position at the moment is as it has been. There’s no change at the moment, but of course we have to factor that into the negotiations.

"Factor that into negotiations"??...in other words she is prepared to use foreign workers as bargaining chips to ensure Brits abroad get to stay abroad. Source

I called it correctly. No drama.

a reply to: Adaluncatif

Then the corruption will start all over again, the high party members in Russia had their own country cottages, Zill cars, imported food, wine, clothing, footwear, the more 'it' changes, the more 'it' stays the same.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

Yeah and reciprocal agreements will be made for settled Brits and EU nationals. It's just sabre rattling negotiations, the UK doesn't have the immigration staff to boot 3 million EU folk out and even if they tried there would be violent resistance from plenty of Brits.

My current beau is a Czech citizen, about a quarter of my social group are EU nationals, they aren't going anywhere, and suggestions that they are is the talk of fear mongering drama queens.
Certainly all my British friends agree we will violently resist it, hide our EU friends, even just marry them if need be, but it ain't happening fella.

Carry on with the silly fear if you want to though.

a reply to: grainofsand
There he is. I thought you were deid man.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

Haha sorry fella, just been enjoying summer, parties, getting drunk, usual.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

So what do you reckon then Solo, can you really imagine Border Force teams forcibly ejecting around 3 million people? I can't, not at all.
We are very similar in passionate views just differ in some shades of ideology, which is probably why we cross swords at times, but that said I can't see you ever letting the government snatch your EU mates either.
I also imagine many millions of us Brits feeling exactly the same, # me, regular protest and civil disobedience would seem like a child's tea party with dolls!

I ain't gonna happen, the police haven't got enough Tazers for a start. No, some transitional deal will be struck with with the EU, perhaps a cut-off date when it is signed to prevent a sudden rush of people movement in advance. Although it could be an announced future date and anyone who wants to live wherever will need to move quick to qualify. Who knows.
One thing is certain though, millions of Brits and EU nationals suddenly being forced back to their countries of origin just isn't gonna happen.

For the obvious chaos reasons of course, but also because decent people won't let it happen.
I'd take Tazerings, beatings, prison, and worse to defend my settled EU mates right to live, work, and party here.
All my Brit mates are the same, and if we ever find ourselves in that position then I shall think of you doing the same as me, way north of the border.

The problem is if the Government chose to do it they would do it on the fly. Your mates and mine would be dragged from their beds at the wee small hours. One minute they would be here, then probably in some deportation centre the next.

I dont necessarilly agree with you that chaos would follow. Scuffles aye, but you and i know that when it comes down to it people can be all mouth and no trousers. Personally i would be in like flynn. If it looks like they were going to try it then groups would need to organise and create safe houses to hide those effected if indeed we wanted to help them.

As you say though. I doubt very much it would ever happen. Political pawns in the game is probably the worst thing that will happen to them, but that just makes things worse for those effected..

I Have friends from Hungary who aint going back home...ever. Holidays and family visits only. Some are Mortgaged to the hilt here.

They didn't really care about politics but between the Independence referendum and Brexit it has made them sit up and take notice that things can and do change. The Brexit vote certainly made them feel a little uncomfortable and unsure about the future.

One thing is for sure, Things are about to get interesting as i dont see Merkel and co bending over for the UK.

I guess it's a case of who blinks first......or.....They will come to some agreement that makes them all look like they are glorious victors.

originally posted by: Soloprotocol
I guess it's a case of who blinks first......or.....They will come to some agreement that makes them all look like they are glorious victors.

That's exactly what will happen.
I could even see a deal where Brits in the EU are required to have health insurance or return home to the NHS but no change for the settled EU nationals in the UK. Merkel gets a massive concession over the 'naughty UK' which voted to leave, and May just shrugs it off as part of the EU exit she didn't support in the first place.

All just my wandering mind though, the question of what happens in your part of our island is equally as massive.
Same with Northern Ireland, and their land border with the EU. Definitely interesting times.

...we could be spanked to deter other countries from voting to leave the EU, but John Kerry was all mates and positive with Boris Johnson today, none of the 'last in line' comments. I figured that was bull# when Obama said it though.

EU's demise is by now a reality and a certainty. The EU though might attempt to reproduce a kind of Euro9/11 in the months of September October. That means a very large terrorist event orchestrated by the EU secret services to use as a false flag to attempt an invasion of Syria. The EU has been planning this for the past couple of years, since the military defeat and political/diplomatic deadlock in every possible aspect of the EU.

yep Flanker.....that's how I read it in that book too....

The EU outer border isn't shut yet against illigal migrants. That means a new streak of terror attacks by ISIS in the EU is inevitable, main targets again Germany and France, very soon. Possibly a matter of weeks!
EU policy in favor of illegality, slave trade and impoverishment of the EU middle class will lead to massive bloodshed and civil war. Legality means that only people with legal documents and visas can be allowed to enter the EU!

The ECB might attempt to artificially prop up the Italian stock market tomorrow, in the middle of another crash. Useless to say that's a very bad idea as it would only trow money in a black hole.

Migrants tents in the middle of Paris are orchestrated by the french govt itself. They brought them there from Calais under Hollande's order!

EU's demise is not potential. It's in your face. While idiots roam around Brussels EU "institution" babbling about an upcoming EU army, they are trying to come up with tricks to prevent the retreat of the USA from NATO, or at least the lower investment of American money on the defense of Europe.

I love Europe so much I would love to have 27 of them!!!