BERNIE HAS A PROBLEM: Nevada Caucus, Before and After
First, a lot happened for the Democrats after the previous debate. Bernie Sanders was always expected to win in New Hampshire, but few foresaw
Hillary Clinton suffering what NPR called a “blowout loss”. This almost certainly wasn’t part of her plan, but Clinton is no fool and handled
herself well in Milwaukee at the last debate. Her game plan has always been to cast herself as the pragmatist with actual plans in contrast to
Sanders’ idealism and talk of a political revolution. Her primary problem, as I see it, is not that she’s anything less than a slick political
operator. If it were anyone else running against her, she’d be picking her teeth with their bones by now. But Sanders has a big-T “Truth” on
his side, and as someone who literally worships the god of liars I know better than most that old Jonathan Swift adage “Falsehood flies, and the
truth comes limping after it”, and I know that when the truth does finally arrive it often has a weight and presence that can blow away all the
lilting, airy lies.
Unless, of course, you find new lies to keep ahead of the game. Hours before the debate, Hillary Clinton managed to snare the Congressional Black
Caucus PAC, a key minority voting block that helps strengthen her lead on Sanders in that area. John Lewis, a house representative from Georgia and
well-known civil rights leader, was moved — or perhaps forced at gunpoint — to proclaim that he didn’t remember Bernie Sanders hanging around
back during the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. days, something he had to walk back after the enormous backlash. “I’m not saying he wasn’t there,”
Lewis said later. “I’m just saying I never saw him or met him.”
Let’s be clear. The Black Caucus supporting Hillary Clinton is a political move based on past favors and *insert political spiel here*. They
clearly see her as the frontrunner and they’re doing what they can to support the DNC. They’re not stupid for doing so, even if it’s getting
more and more apparent that Clinton is losing young voters of every race at an alarming rate. But the real question, of course, is Will It Work.
It’s tempting to shout “no!”, but in truth the answer is “probably!” The minority vote is the best route to victory for Sanders, and
Clinton is still leading him by comfortable margins. “But Sanders got more latino votes in Nevada!” I hear you say. Well, guess what! No he
didn’t. The Quartz article, and pretty much every person proclaiming a victory for Sanders in regard to Hispanics, was using entrance and exit
polls, which are notoriously bad at predicting the latino vote. The truth is this: Clinton won by large margins in areas of the state with a high
density of hispanic voters. So when you see tweets like this, know that it is almost impossible for Sanders to have lead Clinton on hispanic voters
by that large a margin and still lose by 6%.
Look, guys: Bernie Sanders still has a minority problem, and if he doesn’t fix it he will not win the nomination.
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edit on 21-2-2016 by DisinfoCom because: (no reason given)