UK Referendum 23 June 2016 - Will it be an EU BREXIT or Not?

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
The latest official polls are a sign the truth is OUT as hopefully we will be!

Wouldn't it be special if we won Euro 2016 and voted OUT on the 23 June!

This thread has followed the EU BREXIT campaign's and has covered all the issues relating to the EU Referendum thus will be an historical ATS classic which was associated with the most important electoral vote in the history of the UK and Europe!

There is one thing I have been asking the Leave campaigners who have stopped me on the streets and knocked on my door, and nobody appears to have an answer other than various cliches to the effect of "have faith." That is not enough for me. The question is:

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
The latest official polls are a sign the truth is OUT as hopefully we will be!

Wouldn't it be special if we won Euro 2016 and voted OUT on the 23 June!

This thread has followed the EU BREXIT campaign's and has covered all the issues relating to the EU Referendum thus will be an historical ATS classic which was associated with the most important electoral vote in the history of the UK and Europe!

There is one thing I have been asking the Leave campaigners who have stopped me on the streets and knocked on my door, and nobody appears to have an answer other than various cliches to the effect of "have faith." That is not enough for me. The question is:

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

Then we are magically transported back to a better time where there are no immigrants, plenty of jobs for life, everyone loves the queen and beer is a penny a pint!

Huzaa!

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
The latest official polls are a sign the truth is OUT as hopefully we will be!

Wouldn't it be special if we won Euro 2016 and voted OUT on the 23 June!

This thread has followed the EU BREXIT campaign's and has covered all the issues relating to the EU Referendum thus will be an historical ATS classic which was associated with the most important electoral vote in the history of the UK and Europe!

There is one thing I have been asking the Leave campaigners who have stopped me on the streets and knocked on my door, and nobody appears to have an answer other than various cliches to the effect of "have faith." That is not enough for me. The question is:

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

First of all understand that any BREXIT will take up to 2 years which is helpful. From a trade perspective it will be business as usual due to the preference for good supply chain principles which in effect is how most company's and businesses operate. Basically, businesses build relationships with suppliers over many years because they value the quality of product, reliable and dependability of supply thus it is extremely unlikely that EU businesses will change their suppliers because of the UK leaving the EU. That would be very risky and put their businesses and growth at risk. A kind of business suicide if you like. Similarly EU companies will still want UK customers and UK businesses will want to maintain their supply lines. A good example is German cars, the UK buy a million of them every year, we will keep on doing so just as EU customers by UK manufactured cars.

There will need to be a gradual movement of powers back to the UK. There will need to be a transitioning plan which I expect will be lead by a UK Government team to ensure that the transition is made as smooth as possible minimising the impacts where possible. Would mind the job actually but I'm early retired!

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
The latest official polls are a sign the truth is OUT as hopefully we will be!

Wouldn't it be special if we won Euro 2016 and voted OUT on the 23 June!

This thread has followed the EU BREXIT campaign's and has covered all the issues relating to the EU Referendum thus will be an historical ATS classic which was associated with the most important electoral vote in the history of the UK and Europe!

There is one thing I have been asking the Leave campaigners who have stopped me on the streets and knocked on my door, and nobody appears to have an answer other than various cliches to the effect of "have faith." That is not enough for me. The question is:

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

First of all understand that any BREXIT will take up to 2 years which is helpful. From a trade perspective it will be business as usual due to the preference for good supply chain principles which in effect is how most company's and businesses operate. Basically, businesses build relationships with suppliers over many years because they value the quality of product, reliable and dependability of supply thus it is extremely unlikely that EU businesses will change their suppliers because of the UK leaving the EU. That would be very risky and put their businesses and growth at risk. A kind of business suicide if you like. Similarly EU companies will still want UK customers and UK businesses will want to maintain their supply lines. A good example is German cars, the UK buy a million of them every year, we will keep on doing so just as EU customers by UK manufactured cars.

That discussion is all about goods. The UK economy is around 78% services (of which financial services is a quite small part; the creative industries contribute far more per annum), many of which have to be delivered at the point of use (e.g. on customer sites around the EU). Without the free movement of people, it appears that it would be extremely hard for UK SMEs to keep delivering services to customers elsewhere in the EU. Obviously, customers could still choose to buy from UK service suppliers, but it would involved them having to sponsor the equivalent of tier 2 visas for their supplier's staff, taking them on local payroll while there, long delays and increased costs due to immigration red tape and fees. In other words, they would begin looking for other, EU-based suppliers well ahead of the two year limit in order to not cause unnecessary disruption to their service supply chains. Of course, British SMEs in the service industry could during that time set up subsidiaries within the EU and hire EU nationals there, but unless they want to sponsor visas for the longer term for UK nationals, they will probably let people go in the UK as the market for the UK businesses will be shrinking. I fail to see how that would in any way benefit the UK.

a reply to: nonspecific

We'll be able to have a nationwide street party and enjoy jam and cakes made by the WI. With no EU inspectors telling us we could all be poisoned.

oo-er, I think I just gave some ammunition to the Remain camp. Stay in the EU folks or the WI will turn into a collective Lucretia Borgia.

Seriously, vote Out everybody. Sadly, I am too ill to go to the polling station so I have to rely on everyone else to make the effort.

Just out of interest, what did the wages use to be and what are they now?

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Latest from Vote Leave:

We send £350 million a week to the EU, that's £50 million every day – enough to build a new hospital every week

We send far less than that, but never mind... regardless of whether we can build a new hospital every week or every three weeks, there is nothing left over to actually run them, which cost far, far more, and requires quite skilled personnel.

originally posted by: eletheia

originally posted by: FrankPoster
And leaving would be like having open heart surgery performed by Boris the Clown, i.e. very dangerous and almost certain to fail.

? ? Many people have survived open heart surgery and gone on to lead more

energetic and fuller lives then before their surgical intervention.

I'm quite certain that Boris the Turk wasn't the surgeon operating on those people.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Latest from Pollstation after over 117,470 votes is 81% Leave.


www.pollstation.uk...

Something wrong with that poll, unless all the other pollsters are lying for the govt.

Yes. It says "Our records show that you have already voted." No, I have not.

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
The latest official polls are a sign the truth is OUT as hopefully we will be!

Wouldn't it be special if we won Euro 2016 and voted OUT on the 23 June!

This thread has followed the EU BREXIT campaign's and has covered all the issues relating to the EU Referendum thus will be an historical ATS classic which was associated with the most important electoral vote in the history of the UK and Europe!

There is one thing I have been asking the Leave campaigners who have stopped me on the streets and knocked on my door, and nobody appears to have an answer other than various cliches to the effect of "have faith." That is not enough for me. The question is:

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

You probably have not got an answer because it is a stupid question and even asking it tells me you have no intention of voting anything but IN. I say that because it's the same charge being made by the likes of Nick Clegg. Of course no substance on the plan for staying in exists either. We can't even get a straight answer on what concessions Cameron actually won. We can;t get the truth on a European army. We cant even get the politicians to admit that the European council is unelected.
It is worth pointing out that before the plan for the conquering of Europe was started in earnest , Britain did just fine.

originally posted by: moniker
So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

The truth is no one knows for certain what will happen.

In my Opinion...
David Cameron will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty...
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty

Shortly after, he will resign as prime minister, triggering a leadership contest within the Conservative party. Boris Johnson will win this contest and become the Conservative leader. He may or may not choose to hold a snap general election.

After the dust has settled, the new government will have two years to negotiate with the EU in accordance to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union...
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty
Article 218 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union

Everything stays the same until we either negotiate a new deal or after 2 years.
However they may extend this period in accordance to article 50.3 of the Lisbon Treaty.

The 'new deal' is where the uncertainty really kicks in but logic tells me we will get a free trade deal without the free movement of people, except for maybe students.

We will get back the ability to propose/amend/appeal all of our own laws (except we would still have to abide to EU regulations for the goods we sell to the EU, just like every country around the world).

The UK will continue to grow by negotiating her own trade deals around the World and taking back control of vital industries such as fishing and steel.

The EU will try to continue it's path towards a United States of Europe.
Other Europeans countries will become more and more EU-skeptic and want their referendums too.
Leading to the eventually and maybe a messy break up of the EU.

originally posted by: moniker

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

We will have to see what David Cameron comes up with.... seeing as he has no

faith in the British people, he may need to call an election so that someone

who does believe in the nation can take charge!

Then as a *nation again* and not the *sugar daddy* of a bloated entity we can

take back control of our *own* destiny. There will be mistakes made, but they

will be *our mistakes* and we will be FREE to democratically vote

out those who do not carry out pledges they were elected in on.

Our own legal system and high courts will be able to make decissions, rulings,

and sentences without being over ruled by a justice system alien to us.


A small example of what we will be leaving behind ........ Angela Merkel, a

German made the grand gesture of inviting without consultation or restriction

ALL immigrants to 'Europe' on behalf of all of the other member states.

The result

I haven't been reading of any members who are happy with the results this has

achieved In fact it has caused more problems than it has solved .......


This is only the beginning ... The Brits are not the only discontented ... There

are many rumblings being heard all over Europe.

originally posted by: UKTruth
We can't even get a straight answer on what concessions Cameron actually won. We can;t get the truth on a European army. We cant even get the politicians to admit that the European council is unelected.
It is worth pointing out that before the plan for the conquering of Europe was started in earnest , Britain did just fine.

^^^^^^This^^^^^^

A policy document from the Europeans Peoples Party - the political grouping
of both European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel, confirm that plans for military intergration
and an eventual EU army are well under way.
The noises from Brussels are menacing whether Britain chooses to Remain or Leave

From an article By Political Journalist Macer Hall

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

It's an example of Better Together where one side gets screwed over by the other.

originally posted by: TheShippingForecast
a reply to: UKTruth

Imagine the bitterness if Remain scrapes it ... the Scots would get blamed for keeping England in the EU. And if Leave wins, the Scots may hold another independence referendum.

Either way, there's going to be some amount of rancour over the next few weeks.

Superb

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
The latest official polls are a sign the truth is OUT as hopefully we will be!

Wouldn't it be special if we won Euro 2016 and voted OUT on the 23 June!

This thread has followed the EU BREXIT campaign's and has covered all the issues relating to the EU Referendum thus will be an historical ATS classic which was associated with the most important electoral vote in the history of the UK and Europe!

There is one thing I have been asking the Leave campaigners who have stopped me on the streets and knocked on my door, and nobody appears to have an answer other than various cliches to the effect of "have faith." That is not enough for me. The question is:

So if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on the 23rd. Then what? What happens next? What is the plan?

First of all understand that any BREXIT will take up to 2 years which is helpful. From a trade perspective it will be business as usual due to the preference for good supply chain principles which in effect is how most company's and businesses operate. Basically, businesses build relationships with suppliers over many years because they value the quality of product, reliable and dependability of supply thus it is extremely unlikely that EU businesses will change their suppliers because of the UK leaving the EU. That would be very risky and put their businesses and growth at risk. A kind of business suicide if you like. Similarly EU companies will still want UK customers and UK businesses will want to maintain their supply lines. A good example is German cars, the UK buy a million of them every year, we will keep on doing so just as EU customers by UK manufactured cars.

That discussion is all about goods. The UK economy is around 78% services (of which financial services is a quite small part; the creative industries contribute far more per annum), many of which have to be delivered at the point of use (e.g. on customer sites around the EU). Without the free movement of people, it appears that it would be extremely hard for UK SMEs to keep delivering services to customers elsewhere in the EU. Obviously, customers could still choose to buy from UK service suppliers, but it would involved them having to sponsor the equivalent of tier 2 visas for their supplier's staff, taking them on local payroll while there, long delays and increased costs due to immigration red tape and fees. In other words, they would begin looking for other, EU-based suppliers well ahead of the two year limit in order to not cause unnecessary disruption to their service supply chains. Of course, British SMEs in the service industry could during that time set up subsidiaries within the EU and hire EU nationals there, but unless they want to sponsor visas for the longer term for UK nationals, they will probably let people go in the UK as the market for the UK businesses will be shrinking. I fail to see how that would in any way benefit the UK.

I think that the movement of people would not be that difficult because when we joined the EU it wasn't that different from it is now particularly for business and most trips or placements are short. Yes they maybe some issues with visa's but I would think there would be a fast track online process. It may not benefit the UK much but nor do I think there will be too much hindering either. Like with goods, services are often procured time and time again from the same suppliers for the reasons I mentioned earlier. If I was an EU company and I had procured the services I required from 2 UK companies for the last 10 years then it is highly unlikely I would want to change because of a few hiccups! Business and supply for products or services can be a risky business and swapping and changing them all the time leads to business woes and even failure! This is why good supply and service chain principles are backbone component of any successful business! That wont change!

Too much is being made about the fact that things will all change. You know what based on my experience in business and within the corporate world across continents and globally I see all this talk about trade and economic impact as just hog wash and that if there are any impacts they will be small and will recover if not improve!

Also, a point to note is that the UK does only 12% of its trade with the EU so our dependency is not critical and if we leave the EU it is likely that our trade elsewhere increases by more than 12%. Not that I think our trade with the EU will change much.

originally posted by: moniker

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Latest from Vote Leave:

We send £350 million a week to the EU, that's £50 million every day – enough to build a new hospital every week

We send far less than that, but never mind... regardless of whether we can build a new hospital every week or every three weeks, there is nothing left over to actually run them, which cost far, far more, and requires quite skilled personnel.

Correct we spend about 10.6B a year and what we get back we are told what we can spend it on. The 350m is a gross figure which is about to increase in July because of the 2.4B black hole the EU has.

originally posted by: bigyin

originally posted by: TheShippingForecast
a reply to: UKTruth

Imagine the bitterness if Remain scrapes it ... the Scots would get blamed for keeping England in the EU. And if Leave wins, the Scots may hold another independence referendum.

Either way, there's going to be some amount of rancour over the next few weeks.

Superb

I am hoping that Scotland gain independence... been dragging England down for far too long.

a reply to: UKTruth

Yeah, a leave vote could be more liberating for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland than we actually realise.
Bitter auld whinge-bags like the particular member (and others) I won't miss from the UK if they vote to love the EU.

David Cameron has intimated he will not resign till his term is up, however

with his stance and underhanded behavior during this time I believe that

If/when *Brexit* becomes a reality.

(After reading the following ) he should be made to resign.

Two weeks ago when 'project fear' was at full pelt senior figures
from both sides were convinced the 'Remain' side was set for victory,
but now they are bracing for 'Brexit'.
Discrete preparations are being planned by pro-EU MP's for a counter-
attack in Parliament, to try to minimise the consequences of a breach
with Brussels as it looks increasingly likely the country votes to quit
the EU.

Plotters argue that while the electorate appears split down the middle
on the UK's European future, the vast majority of MP's are supporters
of EU membership. They hope that the most Europhile Tories will fight
to the last to preserve British involvement in the European project.
Possibilities arise for a long running parliamentary operation to try to
delay and dilute the Brexit process according to die hard Europhile MP
Stephen Kinnock who this week argued that a leave vote would not
give a 'democratic mandate' for quitting the EU's single market.

In one scenario being discussed at Westminster, David Cameron pledges
to remain in office for another six months, despite the humiliation of
loosing the referendum.In order to preserve some continuity through
uncertain times. He then negotiates a departure 'timetable' with Brussels
for longer than the two year period set out under article 50
of the EU's Lisbon Treaty the formal mechanism for leaving.
Europhiles want years of hanging around in the EU departure lounge, in
the hope of keeping the UK in the European single market, possibly
through continued membership of the European Economic Area.
Britain could end up formally outside the EU yet retaining many of the
characteristics of membership including multi-billion annual payments
to Brussels and acceptance of EU free movement rules for migrants.
The Europhiles plotting is a sign of how drastically the referendum
campaign has turned around over the past fortnight

The EU Bureaucrats have threatened us .... But who needs threats

when our own people are working against us ??????

David Cameron the modern day Guy Fawkes...

plotting subterfuge and fireworks