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UK Referendum 23 June 2016 - Will it be an EU BREXIT or Not?

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posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 01:27 PM
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I've been keeping an eye on the odds of us voting Remain or Leave here for the past few weeks now.

Obviously you have to take the odds with a pinch of salt, especially with 'Stay' continuously being the most popular bet.
However, the odds have shortened massively for 'Leave' in the past 2 days, I thought I would mention it.

Are the bookies finally waking up to how many people actually want to Leave? or has George Osbourne's scare-mongering totally back fired?



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 01:46 PM
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originally posted by: 83Liberty
I've been keeping an eye on the odds of us voting Remain or Leave here for the past few weeks now.

Obviously you have to take the odds with a pinch of salt, especially with 'Stay' continuously being the most popular bet.
However, the odds have shortened massively for 'Leave' in the past 2 days, I thought I would mention it.

Are the bookies finally waking up to how many people actually want to Leave? or has George Osbourne's scare-mongering totally back fired?
Yes you are correct. It was around 2/5 on for Stay and 2/1 for Leave 3 days ago. I was going to place a bet at 200 at 2/1 but not done it yet. I will do it now at whatever odds they are. See odds

www.oddschecker.com...
edit on 19-4-2016 by RP2SticksOfDynamite because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 02:12 PM
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originally posted by: 83Liberty

originally posted by: Flavian
So Gove claims we send £350 million per week? That leaves me very disappointed in Gove - along with Jacob Rees Mogg he is by far the cleverst person in Parliament and yet he is lying about his figures. So he claims the Treasury report is nonsense.......and then responds with nonsense claims of his own!

Frankly, we all deserve better (whichever side of the debate we happen to be on). The true cost can be found here....

The UK's EU membership fees

You are totally correct in pointing this out. Ive posted that link to FullFact many times.
I believe it's probably the best independent website for finding facts about the EU.

I don't understand why Brexiters continue to state £350 million because it's inaccurate and gives the Bremainers a come back.
I contacted the Vote Leave team about the 350m some 30 mins ago and this was their response

Dear T****y,

Thank you for your email - we do send £350m a week to Brussels. We get a small portion of our own money back from the EU but we have no control over this - this is decided by unelected EU bureaucrats hundreds of miles away in Brussels. Money sent to Brussels is not well spent - the EU loses billions a year to corruption and waste and its own auditors have failed to give its accounts a clean bill of health for two decades running. The only way to take back control and spend our money on our priorities like schools and the NHS is to Vote Leave. Please have a look at our online briefing if you'd like to find out more: www.voteleavetakecontrol.org...

I hope that helps to address your concerns. Many thanks for your support.

Best wishes
Hugh



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 02:55 PM
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a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

They are incorrect in their response.

The UK doesn’t pay or "send to Brussels" this higher figure of £350m per week (£18 billion yearly).
The rebate is applied straight away, so the UK never contributes this much.

They would be correct if they said £250m per week (£13 billion yearly).



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 03:13 PM
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originally posted by: Flavian
And again, all the Leave camp are claiming the treasury report is false.........and yet the economic experts say it potentially doesn't go far enough.


You may be interested in a programme I watched last night ... You may be able

to get it on 'catch up.'

It was a debate/discussion programme on ITV called *The Agenda* with

Tom Bradbury.

The guests were George Osborne along with with two women, Alison Pearson?

the other was MP Grace Dent and .... lastly .... wait for it!! Multi-millionaire

financial journalist and money saving expert Martin Lewis.




Again, economics isn't the only argument here, there are other issues that many feel are just as important. But to dismiss the warnings from the experts because they don't fit the narrative is beyond belief - it is illogical and actually pretty reprehensible


The women were of like mind and definitely weren't impressed by Osborne's

predictions, they were more for the feel good factor.

However Martin Lewis had a good balance on it.




For balance though, i will state again that what we need is simple honesty from all parties. I get the feeling though that this will just be wishful thinking........



Its being run as any general election so the people will have to sift the lies from

the spin themselves. I think the referendum is for the people And it

was not up to David Cameron to lead either side, still if he looses he'll go out with

a bang.



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 03:16 PM
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originally posted by: 83Liberty
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

They are incorrect in their response.

The UK doesn’t pay or "send to Brussels" this higher figure of £350m per week (£18 billion yearly).
The rebate is applied straight away, so the UK never contributes this much.

They would be correct if they said £250m per week (£13 billion yearly).
I have requested a response to your reply from them.



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 03:20 PM
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ATS Vote latest after 64 pages: 72% OUT including small Ineligible vote

%
Eligible IN = 16.46
Eligible OUT = 64.56
Eligible UNDEC = 11.39

InEligible IN = 0.00
InEligible OUT = 7.59
InEligible UNDEC = 0.00
Overall IN OUT UNDEC
% 100.00 % 16.46 72.15 11.39

edit on 19-4-2016 by RP2SticksOfDynamite because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 03:24 PM
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a reply to: eletheia

I watched the Agenda last night as well.

Osbourne was a disgrace. He literally said that each household would lose this £4,300 per year out of their pay packets.
Which is a fear-mongering LIE and NO ONE pulled him up on it.

Even the Brexit lady on the right hand side of Osbourne said the figure was more like £1000 per year, which probably made Osbourne's fear-story more believable for some people.



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 03:41 PM
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originally posted by: 83Liberty


They are incorrect in their response.

The UK doesn’t pay or "send to Brussels" this higher figure of £350m per week (£18 billion yearly).
The rebate is applied straight away, so the UK never contributes this much.

They would be correct if they said £250m per week (£13 billion yearly).



I've no doubt this will be cleared up soon. However when ever figures come up in

every walk of life there is 'wiggle room' like rebate ( which by its very name means

a refund) so why take it off pre payment which would actually equate to a discount?


However no one has brought up the recent (just before Christmas) demand for an

additional payment because the UK economy was doing much better than

any other member.

Remember David Cameron saying no way were they going to get an extra payment!

However they were paid two instalments? (I think) and then it was never

mentioned again. Made Cameron look like a spineless twit.



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 03:50 PM
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originally posted by: 83Liberty


I watched the Agenda last night as well.

Osbourne was a disgrace. He literally said that each household would lose this £4,300 per year out of their pay packets.
Which is a fear-mongering LIE and NO ONE pulled him up on it.

Even the Brexit lady on the right hand side of Osbourne said the figure was more like £1000 per year, which probably made Osbourne's fear-story more believable for some people.



I thought Martin Lewis was very good.... He more or less said that it was an

impossible call for either side to predict economies so far ahead, and it looked

to me as if Osborne was giving him a wide birth.

The two women I would term as the 'silent majority' the type that represent so

many and who will possibly pull it off for the *OUT's*......
edit on 19-4-2016 by eletheia because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 04:10 PM
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originally posted by: eletheia
I've no doubt this will be cleared up soon. However when ever figures come up in every walk of life there is 'wiggle room' like rebate ( which by its very name means a refund) so why take it off pre payment which would actually equate to a discount?


Because like I have already stated, the rebate is taken off before we pay the EU. So we don't send the EU £18 billion nor would we save £18 billion if we Leave. The correct figure to use is £13 billion.



However no one has brought up the recent (just before Christmas) demand for an additional payment because the UK economy was doing much better than any other member.

Remember David Cameron saying no way were they going to get an extra payment!

However they were paid two instalments? (I think) and then it was never mentioned again. Made Cameron look like a spineless twit.


I have mentioned this multiple times too and it is one thing that isn't included on the FullFact website!
I remembered we paid half of the money and the other half was paid through a reduced rebate.
www.theguardian.com...

But that still wouldn't make it £350 million per week (£18 million yearly).
edit on 83112bAmerica/ChicagoTue, 19 Apr 2016 16:12:22 -05003016 by 83Liberty because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 04:35 PM
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originally posted by: eletheia
I've no doubt this will be cleared up soon. However when ever figures come up in every walk of life there is 'wiggle room' like rebate ( which by its very name means a refund) so why take it off pre payment which would actually equate to a discount?

Sorry I had mis-read this bit. I don't know why the rebate is taken off before we pay the EU other than it would make more sense than the EU having to send the money back to us.



posted on Apr, 19 2016 @ 07:01 PM
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Much is made of *The EU Rebate* LOL!! Its the 'carrot and stick of

the EU.


First there was the Margaret Thatcher winning an increased rebate?


Then thanks to a decision in 2005, by the then PM Tony Blair the value of the

rebate has fallen by 40%.


Any further renegotiation of Briton's EU membership will have to look at the way

the rebate works. There is still anger that Tony Blair agreed to surrender a large

proportion of the British rebate in return for a promise of 'Common Agriculture

Policy' reform - A promise never kept.

( Wasn't he after the Presidency of the EU
)


From FOI requests it is possible to see how much the rebate was actually reduced

by in each year. 'Business for Britain' has acquired government data that shows the

UK has already lost more than 10 billion and is set to loose even more.

Is that what is going to make us prosper by staying in the EU



Since Tony Blair's changes, the value of the UK rebate has fallen by

10.4 billion
- this is equivalent to £445 per family OR enough for over

60,000 nurses for each year since the rebate was reduced.


The amount the UK has received from rebates between 2010 and 2013 was

over 40% lower than what it would have been had Tony Blair not

changed the formula!


www.google.co.uk...=tony+blair+and+eu+rebate
edit on 19-4-2016 by eletheia because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 20 2016 @ 06:24 AM
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More from Vote Leave:


Imagine if we Vote Leave in 64 days’ time… We can take back control and free our small businesses from burdensome EU regulation which costs us over £600 million a week.


BBC: The Great Debate - On 21 June, the BBC will be holding a televised EU debate at Wembley Arena. The event will feature senior representatives from Vote Leave and the IN campaign. To reserve your place click here. www.bbc.co.uk...

Juncker admits that the EU is too meddling

Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday made some astonishing admissions, stating that the EU too often meddles in the business of individual member states. He acknowledged that ‘we are no longer respected in our countries when we emphasise the need to give priority to the EU’, before going on to say that the EU is ‘losing economic clout in a very visible way’. In an admission of defeat, he concluded that he couldn’t ‘go any further’ to try to reduce the level of spending by the EU institutions.

When even the President of the European Commission admits the EU isn't working, we know that it’s time to take back control. Every week the British taxpayer sends £350 million to the EU, and by Juncker’s own admission this will only rise and rise. After we Vote Leave on 23 June, we can spend this money on our priorities, instead of handing it over to an ever-growing and inefficient Brussels bureaucracy.



Business is divided on the EU

The IN campaign would like you to think that the world of business is firmly behind EU membership. However, the reality is that opinion is split in the business community.

The EU works for big business because they can afford expensive lobbyists to shape the rules in their favour. Indeed, multinationals are using EU law to cut their tax bills and reclaim billions of pounds from the UK Government. www.voteleavetakecontrol.org... ce=voteleave
Research by Vote Leave found that British taxpayers could be on the line for up to £50 billion because of rulings of the European Court attacking our tax system.

However, smaller businesses see the EU as costly and burdensome. Only 6% of UK businesses export to the EU, yet 100% have to comply with Brussels regulation. Yet SMEs often don’t have a say on these rules. After we Vote Leave, UK businesses will no longer be shackled by Brussels red tape, and will be able to focus on creating jobs and driving the economy.



Great reception for Michael Gove speech

Thank you to everyone who watched Michael Gove’s speech online yesterday. Over 50,000 of you tuned in to watch the Justice Secretary give his positive vision of life outside the EU. We will be looking to stream more of these events, so watch this space! If you missed out yesterday, you can read the full speech here.
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org...



Today’s must-reads:

Gove: Brexit would be start of democratic liberation of Europe - Times
www.thetimes.co.uk...

We DO meddle too much, says EU boss - Mail
www.dailymail.co.uk...

Michael Gove: If we vote to stay in EU it’s like voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car - Sun
www.thesun.co.uk... k-of-the-car.html

In an uncertain world, Britain would be safer running its own affairs - Daniel Hannan MEP, Evening Standard
www.standard.co.uk...

EU FACES RUIN: Staggering admission from Juncker as he admits EU DOES meddle too much - Express
www.express.co.uk...

Terrorists gain 'advantage' from EU open borders - EUobserver
euobserver.com...



posted on Apr, 20 2016 @ 07:57 AM
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The first few pebbles toward an avalanche in the EU?? I've just the following.>>>>


The former German chancellor Helmut Kohl has warned his protégé, the

woman he chose as his successor Angela Merkel -


*that Europe cannot become a new home for millions of people

in need throughout the world. National policies of the lone- knight variety

must be left in the past. For the most part they have a belief which is

different from the Judeo/Christian beliefs which form part of

the foundations of our social order, and our values. The solution lies in

the affected regions...not Europe.*



The political giant did not name M/s Merkel - but left no one in any doubt that

his criticisms were aimed at her. Mr Kohl who is now rarely seen in public, is

said to be estranged from the woman he propelled to the heights of power.



posted on Apr, 21 2016 @ 07:55 AM
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Heads up from Vote Leave on EU Debate

BBC: The Great Debate - On 21 June, the BBC will be holding a televised EU debate at Wembley Arena. The event will feature senior representatives from Vote Leave and the IN campaign. To reserve your place click here.
www.bbc.co.uk...

Bank-funded Nick Clegg wants to stay in the EU

Nick Clegg last night gave a speech in the US claiming that if we Vote Leave it will damage our relationship with America. This ignores the fact that our strong ties with the United States of America go back long before we joined the EU, and that the US sees the UK as its greatest ally in Europe. However, Mr Clegg has a history of being economical with the truth.

He lied about tuition fees to get himself into Government six years ago. He promised a referendum on the EU but then backtracked on it. He used to warn we’d disappear off the map if we didn’t join the euro. Now he’s telling us it would be a disaster if we Vote Leave. Remember, this is coming from a man who was paid £36,660 www.mirror.co.uk...
by Barclays and £22,500 www.theguardian.com... by Goldman Sachs to make pro-EU speeches in the past six months.

The British public will be in no mood to be lectured by a politician with such a history of broken promises, especially when he is being bankrolled by those which crashed our economy. After we Vote Leave, we can take back control and hold our politicians to account.



Obama to intervene in EU debate

President Obama is expected to come to the UK tomorrow to show his support for the IN campaign. This is yet another example of Downing Street wheeling out big hitters to try to defend the Prime Minister’s failed renegotiation.

However, Mr Obama’s argument might carry more weight if the US had dropped its border controls with Mexico, or had accepted the judicial supremacy of the Organisation of American States. No US President would ever accept giving up as much control as we have to the EU.

The fact is that the EU threatens our national security and our relationship with the US and other key allies. Former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove www.prospectmagazine.co.uk... likened the EU’s security services to the ‘leakiest ships of state’ and 'colanders', meaning that other intelligence services are reluctant to share information with them. www.dailymail.co.uk...
General Michael Hayden, the former CIA and NSA director, echoed Sir Richard, stating that the EU is not a ‘natural contributor to national security … and in some ways gets in the way of the state providing security for its own citizens.’

After we Vote Leave we can strengthen our relationship with the US and other key allies. We can build on NATO and the Five Eyes Agreement – with the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – which British security has depended on since the Second World War. That’s why it is much safer to Vote Leave and take back control on 23 June.



Today’s must-reads:

Nick Clegg blasted for claiming it would be 'unpatriotic' to back a Brexit in the EU referendum - Sun
www.thesun.co.uk... um.html?utm_content=bufferc1a2e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Poor EU border controls put Britain in danger - Dominic Raab, Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk...

Ex-Bank of England Governor slams George Osborne’s 'simple minded' Brexit cost claims - Sun
www.thesun.co.uk... _content=buffer00a64&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I do hope the SNP has made sure Jean-Claude Juncker approves of its manifesto - Tom Harris, Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk...

We’re so used to EU rule that we’ve forgotten how to do it for ourselves - Allister Heath, Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk...



posted on Apr, 21 2016 @ 09:57 AM
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originally posted by: eletheia


The first few pebbles toward an avalanche in the EU?? I've just the following.>>>>


The former German chancellor Helmut Kohl has warned his protégé, the

woman he chose as his successor Angela Merkel -


*that Europe cannot become a new home for millions of people

in need throughout the world. National policies of the lone- knight variety

must be left in the past. For the most part they have a belief which is

different from the Judeo/Christian beliefs which form part of

the foundations of our social order, and our values. The solution lies in

the affected regions...not Europe.*



The political giant did not name M/s Merkel - but left no one in any doubt that

his criticisms were aimed at her. Mr Kohl who is now rarely seen in public, is

said to be estranged from the woman he propelled to the heights of power.

Don't you think she is too kind to the extent that it adversely affects fellow German's quality of life? Not to mention the added threat to German life's from refugees or immigrants with malicious intent!



posted on Apr, 21 2016 @ 10:07 AM
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originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: 83Liberty
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

They are incorrect in their response.

The UK doesn’t pay or "send to Brussels" this higher figure of £350m per week (£18 billion yearly).
The rebate is applied straight away, so the UK never contributes this much.

They would be correct if they said £250m per week (£13 billion yearly).
I have requested a response to your reply from them.


Still awaiting a response from General inquiries of Vote leave on the 350m vs 250m issues. Strange they not reply again this time. I chased them again.



posted on Apr, 21 2016 @ 10:16 AM
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originally posted by: Cobaltic1978
When it comes to Osborne and the economy in the same sentence, then you can safely assure that the forecasts are miles off.

When has any of his economic forecasts ever been correct?

The bloke is a complete numpty who lucked out with the price of oil driving down inflation. It certainly hasn't been down to any of his budgetary decisions.

it's certainly Project Fear being played out.

Both Cameron and Osborne stated they were willing to lead the U.K out of the E.U unless they could secure fundamental changes to the E.U. As we have seen, their changes have little effect on the U.K membership and they would never have campaigned for the U.K to leave.


Not just about correct forecasts but about whether it is possible to forecast so far ahead. Even the best guestimates there would be a huge margin of error. Its ridiculous to attempt to forecast years ahead when you are dealing with economics because the variables are so flux.

And as far as leading the UK out of the EU I think that is unlikely because pressure would be enormous on Cam and Osb to resign.



posted on Apr, 21 2016 @ 10:21 AM
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originally posted by: Freeborn
As many may know I'm no fan of the EU.

But I'm still open to other points of view.

Don't know if this has been posted before but I came across it on the BBC News website.
It's interesting as I've been completely unaware of any EU investment in the UK.

Travelling anywhere within the EU it's pretty much common place to see the EU sign saying 'funded by the EU' but I can honestly say I've only very, very rarely seen it here.

But apparently

Over the last 15 years, Cornwall has received more than £1bn of EU structural investment.


www.bbc.co.uk...


Between 2000 and 2014, £888m was invested in Cornwall from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF). The money has financed infrastructure projects, airports, universities, road widening schemes, superfast broadband and local businesses.

Another £486m has been earmarked between 2014 and 2020.


I'm aware that the BBC may be pushing the governments pro-EU agenda but it is a good read and whilst alone it's certainly not enough for me to change my mind but it certainly is something that's worth bearing in mind.
Yes interesting read, but there is nothing there that suggests a leave voter should consider a change of mind.



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