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Could Belarus be the next Ukraine?

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posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 03:00 AM
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Belarus is Russia's closest ally and considered vital to Russian interests. Just as Ukraine was. And just like Ukraine Belarus has been moving toward the West. The reasons for this are part economic and part political. Ties with the West would of course be an economic boom for Belarus while being tied to Russia is an economic drag. The second and most important is Russia's radical foreign policy which seems to have no long term plan. In particular Belarus found Russia's take over of Crimea and war in Eastern Ukraine to be a wake up call that Russia does not see the former Soviet States as sovereign.

So Belarus has not supported Russia in Ukraine or Syria. It has instead been making deals with Ukraine, that include joint weapons development and other defense related deals. While China has done the same thing, Russia is in no position to challenge China. Not long ago Belarus was caught buying western goods and putting Belarus stamps on them and the selling them in Russia to get around sanctions.

And as of late when Russia and Turkey are at odds, what does Belarus do? Announces it wants to promote and fully supports new trade ties with Turkey Full support promised for Belarus Turkey projects


Belarus Economy Ministry will provide maximum support for mutually beneficial Belarusian-Turkish projects, Belarus' Deputy Economy Minister Alexander Yaroshenko said as he met with a delegation of the Turkish-Belarusian Business Cooperation Council at the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey




Alexander Yaroshenko informed the Turkish delegation about the investment potential of Belarus, preferential regimes established in the territory of the country. These include the free economic zones, medium and small population settlements, and rural areas.


Belarus has also been creating much closer ties with NATO/EU member Lithuania. Including trade and defense talks. Lithuania Belarus ties on the rise

And all these moves by Belarus have not gone unnoticed by the West. Europe ends sanctions on Belarus


The European Union ended five years of sanctions against Belarus and its authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko on Monday, citing improving human rights as the bloc seeks more friends in Russia's back yard.


Russia has also noticed. How Belarus disappointed Russia in Ukraine and Syria



Last week, Russian propaganda outlet Eurasia Daily published a commentary with the eloquent title "Belarusian 'Neutrality' is Hypocrisy on Spilled Blood." It summarised a series of articles in which experts close to the Kremlin accused Belarus of anti-Russian policies in Ukraine and Syria.





Russian political commentator Evgeny Satanovski earlier accused Belarus of working with Turkey and Qatar against Russia in the Middle East. Now he has taken his criticism of Minsk to the extreme. According to him, while previously Russia's opponents in the Middle East – Qatar and UAE – purchased arms for ISIS in Serbia and North Korea, now they do it mostly in Minsk. Satanovski underlined, “They [ISIS] are going to use these weapons. Whether it will be against us [Russians], Syrians, Iranians or civilians whom they murder is a secondary question.”


Yep the old Russian tactic of claiming anybody they are mad at is arming ISIS. In many ways Belarus is following China's example of simply taking advantage of Russia's current weakness and isolation. Both are signing trade deals with and defense deals with Ukraine and both are making trade deals with Turkey. With friends like these who needs enemies.

Russia however simply has to let China do as it wants. Belarus on the other hand it does not. Belarus is considered a part of Russia and vital to its defense. Much as Ukraine was. As Belarus pushes West what will Russia do? It's old stand by is to create a crisis and grab a chunk of territory creating a new buffer state. Belarus know this but, seems to be betting Russia is already over extended in Ukraine and Syria and that the Russian forces in Belarus would not be up to the challenge (likely heavy in conscripts while Russia's professional forces are busy in Syria and Ukraine).

What can Russia do? A 180 in foreign policy would help. Or it has the same option it had in Ukraine, claim the West is making this happen and that they need to protect some group from them. And Russia faces the same problem in all the former Soviet Republics where, Western or Chinese interests prove far more alluring than anything Russia can offer. So watching what Belarus does and how the Russians respond will be very interesting.




posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 03:04 AM
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Hurried random alliances rings alarm bells ...

Small Countries hedging their bets. Smells of a WW3 early warning !

Stuff needs to happen to reverse this trend.
What that is - any ideas ?

Delicate times ...



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 03:39 AM
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Do I smell a muslim problem in the offing perhaps?
nudge nudge wink wink...



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 04:14 AM
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Belarus and the Russian Federation are in some sort of political union as of 2000. Both part of the EAU as well. The union does not have much enthusianism though.

Unlikely.

The Grand Chessboard has laid out the geo-politics of what was going to happen back in the late 90's. Russia would prefer to be european instead of north asian in population makeup and outlook, that's why it wants ukraine. Ukraine was predicted long ago.
NATO encroachment worried russia of its bases in crimea. It did what it had to do in its national interest. Crimea will stay in Russia until a major war.

Ukraine means a lot more to russia than the west.

The whole thing started when Ukraine's president pivoted towards russia away from the EU. The US disposed him installed their guy and then Russia put their foot down.

If US and company pulled a similar thing in belarus then yes its possible Russia would put their foot down.

Turkey and Russia were also predicted to collide but it was supposed to be in the caucus.

There are free PDF's of The Grand Chessboard.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 04:20 AM
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a reply to: MrSpad

I could be dead wrong about this, but it almost seems as though Belarus is purposely attempting to attract Russia's antagonistic side and almost wants a war with Russia. Maybe not a direct conflict, a proxy war perhaps? Between Belarus and pro Russian separatists.

If that were to happen Belarus would probably hope that it's relationship with Lithuania and possibly it's new founded economic trust from western powers pays off by giving them financial aid of some sort? Better yet Military aid?

My hope is that I'm wrong.
edit on 17-2-2016 by NateTheAnimator because: Grammatical error



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 04:32 AM
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a reply to: MrSpad

Lukashenka is a monster. He only stays in power because of various Russian financial supports. His own Belarussian people despise him. Previously the West would not touch him with a hundred foot barge pole. But as dictators go, he has become attractive to the West as a stick with which to poke the Russian bear.

It would take Russia little time or effort to get rid of Lukashenka and bring Belarus in close to Moscow's orbit. The actual popular sentiment in Belarus is with the pro-Russian east of Ukraine. The only time Belarus is public about supporting Kyiv, for example, is at sporting events where Lukashenka makes sure the Belarussians present are compensated for doing his bidding (as well as being reminded of what will happen to their families if they do anything less than he and his dictatorship demand).

The game that Lukashenka is playing is simply one of blackmail. He makes Moscow nervous and then demands more money and more commodities. He is an old Soviet style monster. As long as Russia thinks they can control him, then he stays. Perhaps they use him to gain intelligence about those powers with whom Russia has few above board links... I don't know. But I do know that one phone call from Putin or Medvedev and Belarus would have a new 'leader' and a renewed Moscow-centric outlook.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 04:46 AM
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Not happening. The Belarus government was already aware of the NGO operations in the country and took quick actions agaisnt them. That is why they at least tried by sending Belaruan expats to Ukraine to join the protests because i did saw some Belaruan flags in those Pro EU Ukrainian protests.

At least the live web feeds. The West Regime Change polices have being rather falling apart recently.
edit on 17-2-2016 by TaleDawn because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 05:10 AM
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Not too attractive merely changing one regime for another do ya think.......



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 05:11 AM
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originally posted by: Timely
Hurried random alliances rings alarm bells ...

Small Countries hedging their bets. Smells of a WW3 early warning !

Stuff needs to happen to reverse this trend.
What that is - any ideas ?

Delicate times ...


Entirely agree.
But, that's what caused the creation of NATO and other longer-lasting alliances, and it's one of the reasons economic ties were introduced as a motivating factor to prevent escalation.

After WW2 there was a clear international effort to create a system where economic pressures could be used to prevent full-scale armed conflict, and what we're seeing with instances like Russia/Ukraine is a continuation of that.

I don't think reversing this trend is going to be easy. The only solution I can think of would be to welcome these smaller nations into NATO on a fast track. The pro-Russia preachers on here will hate reading that, but if you put yourselves in the shoes of any citizen in these nations you would probably be wanting the same. Russia has proven that it cannot be trusted and it has become a threat to other nations, that's a fact. They invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, that's absolutely all any nation needs to see to want to protect themselves against this threat, and in order to do that they will side with the West and NATO.

I think we have an opportunity to welcome them right now, rush them in, form a greater union with these countries and, yes, take advantage of the situation Russia created for itself.

Putin chose this path, he knew that his actions would threaten ties with various nations surrounding him, he has no right to complain about the consequences of what he did to Ukraine.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 05:29 AM
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The problem with the remaining nations who exist within the Russian (shrinking) sphere of dependency, is that they see their economies stagnating and their institutions increasingly corrupted. The people in these nations travel, have the internet and also a brain, even with high levels of censorship and media control. They see that when a nation frees itself from Russia’s moist grip things actually get better for the common man. This is why practically all of the nations once under Soviet occupation have chosen to look West, with Ukraine being the last example. Russia does not like being repeatedly told that their model has been found to be rubbish.

You can either resist the inevitable and suffer the consequences like Ukraine and Georgia with a belligerent Russia acting like a spoilt kid, or you can learn from them and try a different way to loosen Russian’s grip.

In Belarus’s case, their problems are compounded by the fact that dictatorships don’t last long in this day and age. The abuse of human rights eventually catches up with the abusers HRW Belarus and the people will eventually get sick of the corruption.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 05:58 AM
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a reply to: Rocker2013



Russia has proven that it cannot be trusted and it has become a threat to other nations, that's a fact. They invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, that's absolutely all any nation needs to see to want to protect themselves against this threat, and in order to do that they will side with the West and NATO.

Do you want to know what a fact is? The west supporting the civil war in Ukraine so they could put their own little puppet government to control and build a NATO base in front of Russia's door. They did not invade Ukraine as they are still a sovereign nation, and Russia annexed Crimea as a reaction to the west's plans. They did that to protect their national interests.

You trying to push other countries that share the border with Russia in NATO will only cause escalation, because it will force Russia to react because of the strategic reasons.



Putin chose this path, he knew that his actions would threaten ties with various nations surrounding him, he has no right to complain about the consequences of what he did to Ukraine.

I understand it's hard to think for your own when you've been fed up with lies since the day you were born, but since you are here on ATS, maybe it would be best if you stopped reading to MSM and tried to do your own research as to why some things happen the way they do. Why do you accept anything your government tells you? After all the lies, crimes and what not?

The bottom line is this. Of course Russia will react, the same way the US would if Russia wanted to make a base say in Canada or Mexico. Not acceptable. So, don't be dumb in trying to provoke a super power unless you want this world to end.


edit on 17-2-2016 by Nikola014 because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 06:29 AM
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a reply to: Nikola014




They did not invade Ukraine as they are still a sovereign nation, and Russia annexed Crimea as a reaction to the west's plans.


Wrong they invaded Ukraine by way of Crimea...which was part of Ukraine when they decided to illegally annex it. Funny thing is Putin has already admitted to the reason he took Crimea and at first it was a lie.

He planned the taking back of Crimea well before they did it.



The west supporting the civil war in Ukraine so they could put their own little puppet government to control and build a NATO base in front of Russia's door.


And Russia was the cause of that civil war. Funny thing is you keep wanting to promote NATO as wanting to be on Russia's doorstep with Ukraine, but you fail to remember one very important thing...NATO turned down Ukraine for membership so why if NATO wanted this so bad why did they turn down Ukraine the first time?

Simple facts you seem to want to overlook.



I understand it's hard to think for your own when you've been fed up with lies since the day you were born, but since you are here on ATS, maybe it would be best if you stopped reading to MSM and tried to do your own research as to why some things happen the way they do. Why do you accept anything your government tells you? After all the lies, crimes and what not?


DO you think you have some part of the internet the rest of the world cannot get, because we do have access to all the propaganda you want to promote as being the truth.

Amazing that you are as clueless as you try to make others look and cannot see it for yourself.



The bottom line is this. Of course Russia will react, the same way the US would if Russia wanted to make a base say in Canada or Mexico. Not acceptable. So, don't be dumb in trying to provoke a super power unless you want this world to end.



And yet they had one in Cuba...


Russia had a major electronic intelligence base, the SIGINT facility, in Lourdes, Cuba, since 1967. The base was the largest of all Soviet intelligence centers abroad with 3,000 personnel. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the base was downscaled, but continued operation. In 2001, the Lourdes intelligence center stopped its operations mainly because of high costs.


www.rt.com...

Again facts you seem to want to overlook.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 06:44 AM
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a reply to: tsurfer2000h

If Russia took Crimea as you say then they did it legally because Kiev or the west never launched a challenge . Seeing that it is so clear to you and Kiev that this is the case ,you would think that Ukraine would be marching their army to the Crimea to take it back ,instead of turning miners in the east into becoming soldiers to protect their families , friends and homes . Seems that there is a Minsk way or the highway that leads to Russia and the east knows who is helping and backing them in this dispute . Belarus can make and take the same moves that Ukraine did but they could end up in the same shape ,which is not a pretty picture economically as the west has them on a drip feed . The IMF had to change their policy to even keep the drip going thus far . Not many lining up to invest there now .



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 06:47 AM
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originally posted by: tsurfer2000h
Again facts you seem to want to overlook.


Ah, those pesky facts. Those inconvenient truths.

There is no love lost between the repressive Lukashenko, the President of Belarus and the EU. However, Lukashenko has also been a fickle supporter of Russian policies, particularly in Georgia and Ukraine. I guess Lukashenko knows that Russia could easily start to meddle in his affairs. With close to a million ethnic Russians in Belarus it only takes a tantrum from Putin and BINGO a whole area is up in arms and Russian sponsored mayhem prevails.

ILukashenko is getting on a bit and won't last forever.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 07:26 AM
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I wonder if Nuland's been handing out cookies...



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 07:42 AM
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a reply to: the2ofusr1




If Russia took Crimea as you say then they did it legally because Kiev or the west never launched a challenge .


THe threat of the use of nukes will do that to a country.




Seems that there is a Minsk way or the highway that leads to Russia and the east knows who is helping and backing them in this dispute .


Ah yes they have been doing a bang up job there...Crimea is in shambles and the East is no better, Russia has been helping out so much that they don't even want the east of Ukraine.


Russia says it wants east Ukraine to stay with Kiev under reformed constitution


www.reuters.com...

Russia knows they have to stay the course with keeping the fighting going in the east of Ukraine or be isolated even further for showing the world what they already know...Russia is behind the fighting in Ukraine and are supplying fighters and military equipment to them...something they keep denying although it is already been proven they are doing it.

The only thing Russia is doing in the east is helping to destroy it as they have no want of it.



Belarus can make and take the same moves that Ukraine did but they could end up in the same shape ,which is not a pretty picture economically as the west has them on a drip feed .


So your saying they face the same BS that Russia said to enter Ukraine...glad to see your seeing the light.

Russia has been trying to bully their neighbors for years, but they finally got tired of the bullying and are looking for help to keep the bully at bay.

In fact that is why the Baltic countries have been going the way of NATO, as they fear they could be next.



Not many lining up to invest there now .



Fact is your wrong...there are many foreign investors in Ukraine.

usa.mfa.gov.ua...

And the US isn't even the biggest one...go figure.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 07:55 AM
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a reply to: MrSpad


Ties with the West would of course be an economic boom for Belarus while being tied to Russia is an economic drag.

Yah, after meddling with Russia's economy and all, after political bashing in the main stream, various sanctions and driving down the price of oil and all.

What a drag Russia is being made into.

The EU has to face facts sooner or later, a depressed Russia is a depressed economic outlook for all of east and western Euro. Most are dying to go back to business as usual.



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 08:00 AM
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There is no way Belarus is going to be taken over by western interests as it is controlled from Moscow. Russia has troops there, it controls the economy.

Then again it all depends on the USA, Nuland, McCain and that god damned wretch of political meddling STRATFOR

Repeat............................................. S T R A T F O R

It all comes back to STRATFOR



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 09:27 AM
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a reply to: tsurfer2000h




THe threat of the use of nukes will do that to a country.
Unlike the US who has actually used them on civilian populations . and sense when did countries drag nukes into a court of law ? If the west and or Ukraine have a legal leg to stand on they would have burned a path to the courts no matter how many nukes Russia has and you know it . week attempt of creating a straw-man to tear down is all that was ..



posted on Feb, 17 2016 @ 11:12 AM
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a reply to: the2ofusr1

And if Russia has such a strong leg to stand why do supposed allies like China not acknowledge Russia's claim on Crimea?



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