posted on Feb, 9 2016 @ 03:33 PM
ISIS as a military force will be defeated by the end of the year. They have been in retreat for the last 6 months and that has only been speeding up.
Coalition forces are advancing every wear and both ISIS capitals will be attacked in the next few months. ISIS as a terror group can not be defeated
by military force of course, any more than any other can.
What will happen to them is they will likely join another group just as they joined ISIS. Depending on what happens in Iraq, will the Shia Iraqi
regime really become a unity government? If so ISIS whatever was left of ISIS would have to flee. More likely however, We will see the US/Turkish
backed Kurds and Sunnis facing off against the Shia Government. That would likely create areas between the two groups where a ISIS could still
operate as a terror group.
In Syria after the fall of ISIS things will be different. Assad and the Russian whole sale slaughter of Syrian civilians is going to lead to a lot of
new radical anti Assad groups forming. With ISIS gone all the rebels groups will move against Assad. With ISIS taking up most the rebels attention
until that point, all those forces will move against Assad. Likely they will all work together at first. ISIS fighters would likely find their way
into some of those rebel groups in particular native born Syrians who see Assad as just as bad as ISIS. Assad will either leave or fall. Then you
will see the rebel groups square off. If the SDF can stay unified bring in the other non radical groups they should be able to take power and hold it
dealing with the radicals in what would be yet another war. If they do not remain unified a new bloody civil war would continue. Among that chaos
ISIS would find a new name and a new home.
The only real hope for Syria would be Assad leaving and his forces joining up with the SDF. Not giving the radicals any room to maneuver. For that
to work most of the blame for the recent slaughter would have to be put on the Russians with Assad's forces having no choice but, to go along with it.
That is not likely. Memories are long in that part of the world and while the Russians will be hated, Assads and the Syrians who have supported him
will likely be the main targets.