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Where do the votes go now?

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posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 02:37 PM
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GOP

Here we are a few days out from the Iowa Caucus and the GOP field is starting to drop so...where will these votes go and how important will an endorsement from those conceding will be in the coming weeks.

Keeping recent we have Huckabee, Graham, Paul, Pataki and now Santorum. Some may say they were hangers on or low-hanging fruit but each of them have supporters. Some syndicated TV. Others a loud voice in Washington. How will this pay out for the current candidates?

The only ones that we could speculate on would be Santorum and Huckabee. This only because they showed up at his event after the debate. Paul, he will not I believe endorse anyone. Graham will go conservative and is still waiting on a Bush surge but likely will go with the next conservative in line when he drops. Pataki has endorsed Rubio which may help him up north.

Any other ideas and when the field thins even more where will the current go?

DNC

I guess we can just flip a coin here.....




posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 02:41 PM
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Just the fact that people will make their decisions based on the endorsements of other people makes me want to throw up.



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 02:49 PM
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a reply to: matafuchs

Sanders might take New Hampshire. But after that, its all Hilary.

The Republicans don't matter......they can no longer win at the national level.



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 03:00 PM
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originally posted by: Esoterotica
Just the fact that people will make their decisions based on the endorsements of other people makes me want to throw up.


People should think for themselves, yes, but it is also fair to admit when you have to take advice.

Also, presumably the choice of candidate of YOUR candidate of choice could be worth looking into. You were, after all going to let your candidate make descisions on your behalf.



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 03:11 PM
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a reply to: matafuchs

They'll start to coalesce around the establishment candidates. Rubio will likely take the nomination.



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 03:14 PM
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a reply to: DupontDeux

I also meant in the scope of celebrity endorsements, from what kind of shoes to wear to who to vote for. Our society is broken & disgusting.



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 04:24 PM
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originally posted by: Esoterotica
a reply to: DupontDeux

I also meant in the scope of celebrity endorsements, from what kind of shoes to wear to who to vote for. Our society is broken & disgusting.



It's called capitalism, advertising and free speech. What's wrong with that? No one is forcing anyone to buy, vote or support anything.

The smart money [support] will coalescence around Sanders.

Trump seems to have maxed out. Even the AM radio rightwingers have avoided jumping on the Donald band wagon; they aren't stupid, they too can see the cliff that Trump is about to drive over.
edit on 3-2-2016 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 10:06 PM
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a reply to: links234

As evidence to my previous post; The Endorsement Primary

Rubio gained 15 endorsements after the Iowa caucus, slightly edging out Bush for the most endorsements so far. These are actual endorsements that matter, these endorsements consist of major party players that have a big impact on the convention, super-delegates, etc.
edit on 3-2-2016 by links234 because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 3 2016 @ 10:09 PM
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Hillary just bombed the New Hampshire town hall.

Sanders will start gaining more momentum as the two spar. that's my prediction. she was doing well when they avoided each other.



posted on Feb, 4 2016 @ 01:49 PM
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The latest PPP poll taken after Iowa shows the national GOP race as:

1st Trump 25% - major drop
2nd/3rd Rubio & cruz tied - 21% each ... thats a big jump for Rubio and a slight jump for Cruz as they make major inroads into trumps lead.

Looks like Trumps support is falling away.

I actually think America is going to pick 2 establishment candidates again



posted on Feb, 4 2016 @ 02:33 PM
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I am thinking that by the end of the week, Cruz may be in forth behind Trump, Rubio and Carson. Bernie is getting fired up and he should have an easy win.

You have a huge spread here...

www.realclearpolitics.com...


edit on 02pm29pmf0000002016-02-04T14:34:44-06:000244 by matafuchs because: (no reason given)


The PPP poll looks odd because it is the exact opposite for the DNC than all others.
edit on 02pm29pmf0000002016-02-04T14:35:29-06:000229 by matafuchs because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 4 2016 @ 04:03 PM
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originally posted by: UKTruth
The latest PPP poll taken after Iowa shows the national GOP race as:

1st Trump 25% - major drop
2nd/3rd Rubio & cruz tied - 21% each ... thats a big jump for Rubio and a slight jump for Cruz as they make major inroads into trumps lead.

Looks like Trumps support is falling away.

I actually think America is going to pick 2 establishment candidates again


That's why we have the primaries! So that the threats to the status quo can be eliminated!

We went to the Moon w early 60s tech but we're not able to have a general election.

Our election system is set up to keep entrenched power entrenched.

Derek



posted on Feb, 5 2016 @ 06:59 AM
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originally posted by: Viesczy

originally posted by: UKTruth
The latest PPP poll taken after Iowa shows the national GOP race as:

1st Trump 25% - major drop
2nd/3rd Rubio & cruz tied - 21% each ... thats a big jump for Rubio and a slight jump for Cruz as they make major inroads into trumps lead.

Looks like Trumps support is falling away.

I actually think America is going to pick 2 establishment candidates again


That's why we have the primaries! So that the threats to the status quo can be eliminated!

We went to the Moon w early 60s tech but we're not able to have a general election.

Our election system is set up to keep entrenched power entrenched.

Derek


Yes - it does look like Rubio is surging in NH now - might well be a single digit Trump polling lead by next Monday.
Trump was a full 15 points ahead of Rubio in the polls in Iowa and only beat him by 1 point.

If Trump loses NH (or even if it is close) i think we may see him fall away completely and withdraw.



posted on Feb, 5 2016 @ 07:16 AM
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originally posted by: matafuchs
I am thinking that by the end of the week, Cruz may be in forth behind Trump, Rubio and Carson. Bernie is getting fired up and he should have an easy win.

You have a huge spread here...

www.realclearpolitics.com...



The PPP poll looks odd because it is the exact opposite for the DNC than all others.


The PPP poll for the DEMs is consistent with the other polls in terms of the National position.



posted on Feb, 5 2016 @ 07:27 AM
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This is a graphic taken from The Federalist blog analyzing caucus goers in Iowa and spreading them among the GOP vote.


The survey asked all respondents—Democrat and Republican—if they would or would not consider voting for each of the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. Using a variety of statistical tools, I found GOP candidates are likely competing along two main dimensions in the primary: a populist/establishment dimension, and an ideological dimension. Rand Paul comes close to defining a third dimension, and stands apart from the other GOP candidates. I’ll explain.




As you can see in the chart, Donald Trump heads up one dimension (horizontal axis) and Ted Cruz leads the other dimension (vertical axis), while Jeb Bush and John Kasich are at the opposite end of the spectrums. These data seem to suggest that voters view Trump as the most anti-establishment/populist candidate and Cruz as the most conservative candidate.


These data seem to suggest that voters view Trump as the most anti-establishment candidate and Cruz as the most conservative candidate.

In contrast, voters seem to view Bush and Kasich as more moderate candidates closer to the so-called GOP establishment. Paul stands out, probably because he is viewed as outside the Washington establishment but his libertarian streak makes him appear more moderate than Cruz. Notably, Rubio straddles both the anti-establishment and establishment wings.


These data provide some indication that if GOP voters ultimately value an outsider populist over the establishment and don’t care as much about ideology they go for Trump. But if at the end of the day they want an anti-establishment candidate who they view as also very conservative, perhaps they go for Cruz.


thefederalist.com...

You can learn some things by looking at this chart, including that the TEA Party isn't exclusively in Trump's corner. In fact, he has more mainstream Republican voters than anything else, especially those who are not economically conservative.

Rubio seems to be the closest thing to a consensus candidate which may be what puts him over the top. I just wish I trusted him after the Gang of 8 ... but I don't. It shows he can be manipulated if nothing else.



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