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originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: tanka418
Sorry to drift off topic, but probabilities are a hobby of mine.
originally posted by: tanka418
originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: tanka418
Sorry to drift off topic, but probabilities are a hobby of mine.
You are preaching to the choir! I am fully aware of the probabilities. Math at that level, and, probability specifically is an integral part of my job...I've been quite successful for over 40 years...you might try explaining to some of the others how 6 coin flips is only 6 events and not 7.
I've been saying along that 1 in 64 is only "uncommon" at best, was actually about the first to say that...but, it seems that some simply have to comment after not reading, and then get the whole thing wrong.
Yes its quite fun, if you reverse the probabilities of runs, you can have fun calculating the odds in your favour of predicting an outcome. Like we have stated that after six coin flips, of say heads the chances of the next one being a head, are now 128 to one, so your odds of getting a tail are getting better.
originally posted by: Eilasvaleleyn
a reply to: tanka418
Yes, there are six events. (Coin flips.)
If you were calculating the probability using the binomial formula, six is the number you would use for "Tries".
However, there are seven outcomes. (Final score arrangements.)
And there are 64 unique combinations of the results of those events.
originally posted by: Eilasvaleleyn
a reply to: tanka418
Okay, let's lower the number of coin flips to two. There are two events. There are three outcomes.
H/T
2/0
1/1
0/2
originally posted by: Eilasvaleleyn
a reply to: tanka418
Now you're resorting to personal attacks? How odd. I wasn't even disagreeing with you, I was explaining where the 1/64 came from, like you asked me to.
No, 1.56% is not "slightly uncommon."
You are drastically understating how unlikely it is.