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For months, the press and the Republican establishment alike have been expecting the Trump bubble to implode. Now that it's clear Trump isn't going anywhere, we're seeing stories about a long slog of a campaign or even a brokered convention. But there's a very real possibility that, far from those kinds of days of reckoning, Donald Trump could actually "run the table." Ironically, Trump not only could win — he could win more decisively than any non-incumbent Republican contestant for the nomination since the dawn of the modern primary system.
Conventional wisdom is that whichever establishment-friendly candidate places second — at this point John Kasich is lined up behind Trump, but Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and even Jeb Bush are all said to have a shot — is going to be Trump's most-viable challenger for the nomination. But if Donald Trump dominates with 30 to 40 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, and they come in 15 to 20 points behind, how is that possible?
But it's worth pointing out that the Cruz campaign has raised expectations considerably by touting this fact. A narrow Cruz win at this point would hardly be an exciting upset.
And Cruz could still lose Iowa. His rise in the state came during a period when he faced virtually no fire from the Trump campaign — and when he was directing virtually no fire Trump's way. That's no longer true. Moreover, Trump has actually led in four of the last five Iowa polls. And that was before the Palin endorsement.
Because of heightened expectations, a Cruz loss in Iowa would be devastating. He's been counting on a victory there to propel him to second or third place in unfriendly New Hampshire, and to possible victories in subsequent primaries in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.
If Cruz loses Iowa, and the air goes out of his balloon, who benefits? Who's the leading second-choice candidate of Cruz supporters? You guessed it.
South Carolina was decisive for every GOP nominating contest until 2012. It gave 55 percent to Reagan in 1980, 49 percent to Bush in 1988, 45 percent to Dole in 1996, and 53 percent to Bush in 2000. McCain just edged past Huckabee in 2008.
No non-incumbent has won both the GOP's Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary since the dawn of the modern primary system. Trump has a real shot to be the first. And no recent candidate has overcome the kind of deficit most of the other candidates face in both national and state-by-state numbers at this late date, against a candidate with as strong and stable numbers as Trump has, and gone on to win.
If Trump wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, and then goes on to win South Carolina and Nevada — as he is favored to do — he could very conceivably win every contest, or at worst lose a favored son state or two like Cruz's Texas. Nobody has run the table like that — not Nixon in 1968, nor Reagan in 1980, nor Bush in 2000.
Republican donors are quietly coming around to the idea that Donald Trump could be their party’s nominee for president.
While many major Republican donors still cannot abide the idea of Trump as their party’s 2016 standard-bearer — and some remain flat-out in denial about the strength of his candidacy — interviews with GOP business owners and CEOs in six states suggest shifting attitudes toward the controversial billionaire.
Trump has to date rejected financial support from wealthy donors, saying he does not want to owe them if he gets into office. But winning the acceptance — or even the favor — of donors could prevent a big-money assault against Trump and ultimately benefit him in a multi-billion dollar general election.
Donors who have either given the maximum $2,700 contribution to Trump’s campaign or plan to give vastly more than that in a general election, say they are noticing a growing acceptance of Trump among their mainstream Republicans friends and business associates.
When Republican donor Ernie Boch Jr. threw a party for Trump on the grounds of his 16,000-square-foot mansion over the summer, most of his friends in Boston’s elite corporate and political circles thought he was “nuts” for supporting the billionaire’s unlikely presidential bid.
“People were going crazy that I was having him over to my house,” Boch says of his summer fundraising bash for Trump. “A lot of my friends were afraid to say that they were supporting him because it just wasn’t politically correct.”
Now, nearly six months later, Boch, a car dealership mogul and supporter of the Massachusetts Republican Party, says friends and business associates he regards as moderate or “establishment” Republicans “are coming to terms with the idea that this is the guy; this is who is going to be the GOP leader."
Manchester, who gave $25,000 to the super-PAC supporting Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, says he’s willing to fundraise for Trump on a large scale when required. “A lot of my friends have really come around and are now saying they are going to support him,” says Manchester. “These are corporate leaders.”
“If he gets the nomination, then that’s a whole other ball game,” Manchester said.
Recent comments from leading GOP figures, including Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and Scott Reed of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have been aiding the establishment migration toward Trump, however slow and reluctant it may be. Though far from endorsing the billionaire, they are treating his candidacy with growing seriousness.
It wasn't until we started adopting the idea that we had to be more like the rest of the world that we started our financial and moral decline.
originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin
No, I do not think they are laughing at us. They are scared. The international community know who he is. A shrewd, cutthroat business man who gets things done. He is not a politician that can be bought and bend over. I am sure they are worried that their foreign aid is going to dry up as he has promised.
originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin
No, I do not think they are laughing at us. They are scared. The international community know who he is. A shrewd, cutthroat business man who gets things done. He is not a politician that can be bought and bend over. I am sure they are worried that their foreign aid is going to dry up as he has promised.
No we are laughing at him and those dumb enough to support him.
Really the other day at work a whole bunch of us were just killing ourselves laughing at the prospect of him being president. You can bet that all over the world there a groups of people having a good laugh about this.
He is not a "shrewd cut throat business man who gets things done" he is a thuggish bully with bad hair who made it with daddy's money.
originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
Guys....
Do you think any Americans realise that the rest of the world is laughing at them right now for seriously considering Trump as a presidential candidate.
Do you think any Americans realise that the rest of the world is laughing at them right now for seriously considering Trump as a presidential candidate.
originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: Bennyzilla
It wasn't until we started adopting the idea that we had to be more like the rest of the world that we started our financial and moral decline.
So its the rest of the world responsible for your financial decline? sure its not got anything to do with a culture of greed and a corrupt banking system that the government's in bed with.
And your solution to this problem?
"Lets get the greediest guy we can find to be the next president"
[/quote
the culture of greed by the majority of americans!! the corporations and businesses are greedy for profits and the common man cannot contain their personal spending habits!!! we are in denial!!! this consumerist mentality of spend, spend, spend will be the death of us!! whatever happened to saving money and living within ones means, we have no one to blame but ourselves!!
Bet there is a whole lot of your in the UK that would have wished you had a leader with the balls to shut down your borders, until you figured out how to handle it?
LOL Glad Trump has the Globalist status quo running scared!
So enjoy your UK Sharia nation and Ahmed Sheikh.
But no, Trump is a showman, he knows what you want to hear so it shouts it loudly.