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.Only time will tell which of these will be the case, but at the moment, the sun isbehaving very similar to the Dalton Minimum (sunspot cycles 4/5), which wasa very cold time. This is based on the similarity of sun spot cycle 23 to cycle 4(which immediately preceded the Dalton Minimum).As the global climate and solar variation reveals themselves in a way notseen in the past 200 years, we will surely attain a much better understanding of what causes global warming and cooling. Time will tell. If the climatecontinues its ocean cycle cooling and the sun behaves in a manner not wit-nessed since 1800, we can be sure that climate changes are dominated by thesun and sea and that atmospheric CO2 has a very small role in climate changes.If the same climatic patterns, cyclic warming and cooling, that occurred overthe past 500 years continue, we can expect several decades of moderate tosevere global cooling
Global temperatures, ocean-based teleconnections, and solar variancesinterrelate with each other. A team of mathematicians (Tsonis et al., 2003,2007), led by Dr. Anastasios Tsonis, developed a model suggesting that knowncycles of the Earth’s oceans the Paciﬁc Decadal Oscillation, the NorthAtlantic Oscillation, El Nino (Southern Oscillation), and the North PaciﬁcOscillation all tend to synchronize with each other. The theory is based ona branch of mathematics known as Synchronized Chaos. The model predictsthe degreeof coupling to increase over time, causing the solution to “bifurcate”,or split. Then, the synchronization vanishes. The result is a climate shift.Eventually the cycles begin to synchronize again, causing a repeating pattern of warming and cooling, along with sudden changes in the frequency and strengthof El Nino events. They show how this has explained the major shifts that haveoccurred including 1913, 1942, and 1978. These may be in the process of synchronizing once again with its likely impact on climate very different fromwhat has been observed over the last several decades.
I said I was familiar with Judith Curry.
I thought you said you were familiar with the theory?
originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
1. That the CO2 emissions can raise temperature on a planet wide scale just like it does in a greenhouse
Possible but not likely. Greenhouses don't have oceans, solar winds etc. Just because it happens in a laboratory does not mean it happens on a grander scale.
You either want to debate or you want to sit in the bushes and criticize. If you disappear this time, I am done with you
So it would seem that she is not really sure what Tsonis is talking about. But if you read further on that page you might learn something.
I don’t have any particular insight in Tsonis’ work in terms of the chaos/nonlinear dynamics aspects (which I am not an expert on). But I find these ideas very intriguing and they make more sense to me than anything else I’ve read on trying to interpret the the climate record of the past decade and make projections a few decades hence. I would appreciate comments on this from the denizens that are knowledgeable on this topic.
And my conclusion. Despite the clear shortcomings of the paper (especially as far as the coupling is concerned) it suggests that the behaviour of the indexes follows correlation-decorrelation pseudo cycles. This observation has no predictive virtue so I don’t think that it could be used for your intent to elaborate a decadal scenario. All that Tsonis says, is that the behaviour (of the indexes, not of the system itself!) significantly changes when the correlation is strong and the predictor good. This situation happened in 2001 again. So according to Tsonis something will change/has changed significantly. As his paper is neither quatitative nor predictive, he cannot say WHAT will change and HOW.
Synchronization followed by an increase in coupling coincided with all the major climate shifts of the 20th century, and was also shown to mark climate shifts in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warmingover time periods spanning multiple decades.
I gather that it is impressive because it has tracked past climate change very accurately. At last a model that works!
Then why did you say this:
I don't think it predicts the effects on just one oscillation but focuses on the interplay between all four oscillations.
It also perfectly explains the amazingly strong El Nino affect this year.
originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: markosity1973
no I am not saying that - I never said that the data was incorrect (although it keeps getting changes as it was just recently. I was discussing the period of global cooling from 1942 to 1978 which gave rise to things like the Times article that was predicting another ice age.
Tired of Control Freaks
Since Tsonis work goes back in time to before there was significant CO2 emissions, I think he is merely acknowledging that CO2 is "said" to the major climate forcing in the twentieth century.
While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warmingover time periods spanning multiple decades.
Indeed, and where does that heat from the ocean go? And why did the ocean get warmer this time around than the last time?
it would make sense that PDO would throw out a lot of heat as it enters the cooling phase