a reply to: ericblair4891
A few years ago I made a graph showing earthquakes 6+, Moon Phases and Solar Flares. Unfortunately didn't keep the Excel file, I'm sure I loaded the
screenshot to ATS, but I can't find it right now.
This weekend I made a new more complex 2016 graph showing Earthquakes over 5.5 (IRIS data), Moon Phases (fourmilab), Solar Flux (Space Weather Canada
and Solarham), Solar Flares (Solarham) to see if there was any developments along these lines.
What I see from the graph;
4 major peaks of solar flux
4 clusters of solar flares
4 major quakes over 7.4
Looks promising, could there be a match?
3 of the major quakes occurred "just after"* a solar flare cluster or high flux reading, by 16 days (Feb 15-Mar 2), 5 days (July 24-29), and 12 days
*I say "just after", 12 and 15 days is a long time, but the solar flux and flares are so far apart that just after is relative.
and one occurred 1 day before a solar flare (Apr 16-18)
one high flux reading did not produce a flare or a major earthquake but did produce a 7.2 (May28)
one solar flare did not produce a major quake (Jan 2)
As for the Full and New Moon and Perigee (close in) and Apogee (far away) I really can't see how it has any influence on earthquakes.
All those Moon positions/phases are quite regular, at least twice a month, so if they did influence big earthquakes there should be regular
earthquakes too at the same rate. There isn't.
There is no use looking at quakes below M7.4, as there are so many of them one or two are always going to fit into the period before or after a Moon
I suppose at a stretch you could say that;
2 of the major quakes occurred as the Moon was coming in towards Earth, but 2 didn't, the SW of Sumatra quake of March 2 was as the Moon was traveling
away, the Sth Georgia Is one occurred just as the Moon was about to reach its furthest point from the earth in August.
I'm not too clear as to what solar flux is, but it does tend to proceed a solar flare (well 3 out of 4 times this year). That is something to keep an
eye on, High Flux + Solar Flare = Big Quake?
or another way to look at it is; based on 2016 data there is a 75% chance that a High Flux will produce a Solar Flare and if that happens there is a
75% chance the two combinations will precede a Big Quake.
Whats that overall? 75% of 75% = 56.25%
So at least for year 2016 the results are inconclusive, it doesn't give any indication where that big quake might be at all, so what use is it knowing
this, should everyone on the planet be on high alert every time there is a High Flux + Solar Flare scenerio developing?
More research is required, over a longer time period. Funding is non existent, so it may take a while.
2105 looks interesting, a lot more Solar Flares for a start.
Here are the resources I used (as mentioned in the intro)
Moon Phases (fourmilab)
Solar Flux (Space Weather Canada)
Solar Flares (Solarham)
Solar Flux 2 (Solarham)
If this pans out, maybe we should be watching the Solar Flux daily rather than scanning the various network earthquake sites after the fact.
The Solar Flux is at a low point today 80.8
I might make it a daily point of keeping a graph, seeing as the Bing Map thing seems to have collapsed in a heap of not available files, man I spent a
lot of time making those
edit on 0900000026026016 by muzzy because: spelling fixed
edit on 0900000026026016 by muzzy
because: stuffed up one of the links, fixed it