Quake Watch 2016

Again, I must say that there is a definite pattern of earthquakes in Nevada. When you look at this newest swarm area, you have a wide and disperse area of earthquakes. There is no linear line to follow. They are spread out over a roundish area. Also, they other areas are still swarming and smaller newer areas are popping up. Overall, really busy. Let's not forget it's been a long time and continuing, and spreading.

Mexico. Really busy went counting for the 08, was about 60.

a reply to: ericblair4891
Where do you mean "new swarm area"? at the north end of the Fox Range, Gerlach-Empire?
I counted 127 122 there in the last 7 days, 4 at Black Rock Desert and one at Granite Range
on USGS.

a reply to: ericblair4891
I wonder why the USGS didn't convert that 5.9 to Mw, a quake of that size deserves the conversion, so as to be able to compare to other Mw readings in the area or elsewhere.
This is where the magnitude system falls down, comparing apples with oranges instead of apples with apples.
I note that GCMT gave it a 5.9Mw anyway. ds.iris.edu...
The Russians 5.9mb and 5.7 Ms

Another little swarm going on in Southern California right now, by the Salton Sea.
5 in the last hour, all between 2.1 and 2.7.

a reply to: Rocker2013
you mean these? Imperial/El Centro
scedc.caltech.edu...

Bit of volcanic activity in NZ the last week, first White Island had a crater eruption (steam and ash) then Ruapehu's crater lake is warming up to 44C.
discussed on Volcano Watch 2015/2016
www.abovetopsecret.com...

But there are no quakes of any significance that match in with these volcanic events.
There are some small ~M1 quakes on the slopes of Ruapehu, but no more than normal background seismic activity.
What is a bit "new" is activity in the Wanganui Basin. There have been swarms of quakes here before, some with a lot of events over a period of weeks and months, but that never turned into anything of significance.
map of 09.05.2016 NZ earthquakes
Not sure whats up with this spot.
In the back of my mind is that if you track the line of volcano's down from Raoul Island through White Island and the Taupo Volcanic Zone, this is where you end up, Wanganui Basin.
It may be a long shot, and it could be thousands if not millions of years before it happens, but what about a new volcano in the Wanganui Basin?

a reply to: muzzy

Yes, I'm talking mainly about Empire, the newest swarm area. There are other smaller areas that have been popping up among the other swarms we've discussed. Frankly, there's been some many new areas over the last year I really keep track of the smaller ones. To confuse the matter, many other swarms in nearby California are artificial. Due to geothermal, and I think, from water extraction, and they also frack in California. It's hard to tease out which other swarms are natural or due to industry. I know some near San Fran were natural. And I think Salton Sea is natural, and maybe concerning? Except, there are often swarms in the area.

Nevada seems to be different. The majority aren't man made. And they seem to be following one another as if they were migrating, or the stress is differentiated depending on God knows what. I've already disclosed my bias.

Oh, I haven't been ignoring the eastern U.S. There was an article about a theory on plates melting and slipping into the mantle. I find I will post.

Maybe that's what's happening in Nevada. Oh my gosh. It that's the case. There may be a similar but different process happening in Nevada. If there is some chucks of the old plate melting and falling into the magma, maybe the plate is increasing it's movement under North America. Maybe. Maybe the swarms in Nevada are the upwelling of magma under Nevada as the old hard stuff sinks. The chunk that falls leaves a less dense area. Then hotter magma rises up and expands the crust from some pressure and heat. Swarms. There we go. I merged the two ideas.

I did a search and there's a bunch of articles. Here's from England. I love hate the English.
www.mirror.co.uk...

"The crumbling North American Plate is the cause of earthquakes in the south eastern USA, scientists at the University of North Carolina have said.Huge fragments of the Earth's mantle are breaking up and sinking causing earthquakes - and there are more to come, experts have warned.

The fragmenting North American Plate is the cause of violent tremors in the south eastern USA, scientists at the University of North Carolina have revealed.

The region was previously though of as relatively stable and largely free from extreme seismic activity, but a quake struck in Mineral, Virginia, in 2011, which measured a whopping 5.8 on the Richter Scale.

The research, which was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth yesterday, suggested the breaking mantle thins and weakens the remaining plate, making it more prone to the slipping which causes earthquakes...."


Oh Mexico. It's probably due to the almost 6.0M earthquake on the 8th, but yesterday, Mexico registered about 96 earthquakes.

Oh, I just looked at Northern Nevada, and even though the swarm is at a snail's pace, there was something interesting in the last seven days view. There's a linear line. North south inclination. Is this the actual fault? Were the other swarm earthquakes stretching? And the fault is more defined, will this make it easier for a bigger rupture? Too many questions?

Also, if you take that line and continue it south, you end up right in the middle of the newest swarm area. And if you look at the area, there is a main area with a smaller swarm area nearby. This is the ones I am talking about. They are often very small but usually near the new swarm areas as the pop up. We're having swarms of swarms.

Okay, my brain is hurting now. These swarms following the contour of the border. The border was drawn because of the mountains. The earthquake swarms are running up and down the eastern side of the mountains. I looked on google earth and it makes sense. The are on the east side. If the plate was dropping off and falling into the magma, I think this the area you'd expect to find the diving old plate.

I know I haven't talked much about Oklahoma. That's mostly because there's nothing much new. But here's a CBS story... And now Oklahoma is "Earthquake Alley" So, it's Tornado-Earthquake Alley. Why don't we just call it the state of tears.

The trail of tears led to a state of tears. It's really a disaster zone and a environmental nightmare in the making.

Muzzy, I'm so glad this study had to do with New Zealand. You may see the place you live differently. It is the water. You know I've been harping about following the water.

"Rainwater trigger earthquakes in New Zealand
BY TIM SANDLE 5 HOURS AGO IN SCIENCE
Wellington - A new study has found that along New Zealand fault, rainfall can contribute to plates slipping and sliding, thereby triggering earthquakes.
The connection between precipitation and earthquakes has come from a study of the Alpine Fault. Geological research suggests the fault has arisen through thousands of years of rainfall and snowfall.
The Alpine Fault is a geological fault running the length of New Zealand's South Island, a boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. Earthquakes occur along the fault, with a major one taking place every 330 years.
The new research has come about after geologists traced the source of water flowing through New Zealand’s Alpine Fault. The earthquakes are triggered by underground fluids, which are the result of rainfall and snow melt-water. The fault is structured so that it traps large quantities of water.
Water helps to induce earthquakes by altering the strength of rock and counteracting the forces that hold two sides of a fault together. The assessment, according to Science News, was based on water-deposited minerals in rocks, the relative abundance of helium in nearby hot springs and the various oxygen and hydrogen isotopes that made up the water.
It is hoped by tracking water activity, scientists will be able to predict earthquakes, with greater accuracy, further in advance of the tremors happening. Moreover, the results may inform about other faults around the world. In addition to the build-up of water naturally from precipitation, the Earth’s depths also hold watery waste such as municipal wastewater and, increasingly, used fracking fluid trucked in from faraway wells. These can cause pressure to build up, and quakes can be triggered as a result of the greater pressure.
For example, it has been noted that the act of pumping wastewater underground has affected parts of Oklahoma. Here considerable quantities of water left over from oil and gas extraction could have led to earthquakes in certain regions of state since 2008.
The research was carried out at the University of Southampton, U.K. The research is published in the journal Earth and Planetary Sciences Letters (“The fluid budget of a continental plate boundary fault: Quantification from the Alpine Fault, New Zealand.”)"


www.digitaljournal.com...

a reply to: ericblair4891
Interesting. that's "the other island", not the one I'm on.
Nevertheless I read through the document you linked, not that I understood much of the theory.
What caught my eye was

The Alpine Fault fails in regular large earthquakes (∼Mw∼Mw 7 to 8) (Sutherland et al., 2007) and is late in its 329±68 yr329±68 yr seismic cycle, having last ruptured in 1717 AD

Same sort of scenerio as the San Andreas timewise
Late/Overdue
Alpine fault Wiki

1848 - Marlborough, estimated magnitude = 7.5
1888 - North Canterbury, estimated magnitude = 7.3
1929 - Arthur's Pass, estimated magnitude = 7.1
1929 - Murchison, estimated magnitude = 7.8
1968 - Inangahua, estimated magnitude = 7.1
2003 - Fiordland, estimated magnitude = 7.1
2009 - Fiordland, estimated magnitude = 7.8
I think Wiki including the 2009 event is a bit of a stretch,
however this may change the view of how wide the Alpine Fault is
www.stuff.co.nz...

So if it is water, and they get up to 10 metres a year on the Westcoast, but only 20% finds it's down way to 2km, you would think there would be more earthquakes than there are.
I think its more likely the water lubricates the Fault, so it shifts without too much drama, hence less earthquakes?

another interesting story on the Alpine Fault mentions the rain as well.

In the past 25 million years, the two sides of the South Island have shifted more than 700 kilometres relative to each other along the Alpine Fault. That is 250km more than previously thought.
The full extent of the movement was masked because the rocks first moved 250km in one direction, then went back the other way – retracing the first 250km and adding a further 450km.

edit:
On another topic which crops up here from time to time "Swarms". I think this is quite a good definition; (underlining is mine regarding fluid)
from this PDF

‘‘Earthquake swarms’’ are sequences of often similar-sized earthquakes with no distinctive largest event [e.g., Sykes, 1970]. They are commonly observed in geothermal fields, volcanic areas and near mid-ocean ridges (e.g., Sherburn, 1992) and are often interpreted to be associated with fluid movement (Hagiwara and Iwata, 1968; Mogi, 1989; Vidale and Shearer, 2006) or with aseismic creep (e.g., Roland and McGuire, 2009).

15 Minutes ago, quite a big "aftershock"

Public ID 2016p355041
Intensity strong
Universal Time May 11 2016, 8:45:53
NZ Standard Time Wed, May 11 2016, 8:45:53 pm
Depth 7 km
Magnitude 4.7
Location 10 km south-east of Christchurch
Latitude, Longitude -43.59, 172.70
169 TTNT energy released
www.geonet.org.nz...

2765 felt reports in 15 minutes!
edit: another 1000 in an hour.

They never defined a precise Fault in the Port Hills, but this one is right near the Feb 2011 M6.34 that destroyed most of Christchurch, under the Lyttelton Tunnel

Some of us have been watching mexico and southern Cali.

This one isn't big, but there are a couple smaller ones along with it.

4.4 ENE of Colonia Vicente, Guerrero 10km (6.2mi)

earthquake.usgs.gov...

a reply to: crappiekat

I'm seeing three in Southern California in the last hour, a 4.8, followed by a 4.4 and finishing with a 3.0.

This is the first time I'm seeing anything in Southern California, I don't think there's been anything happening there of note over the last few weeks, at least nothing that I can recall.

a reply to: Rocker2013

Here's a list of the smaller ones.

scedc.caltech.edu...

There was a small swarm just south of the Salton Sea.

Here a better link to see where the quakes were.
earthquaketrack.com...


And here is a list for Mexico.
earthquaketrack.com...

a reply to: muzzy

Oh, I'll find another article I read recently that talked about slow earthquakes that might cause tsunamis. I can't remember much more than that at the moment. Yes, I like that you underlined the word "fluid". The swarms in Nevada are most likely fluid driven.

www.radionz.co.nz...'slow-slips'-could-trigger-big-quakes

Water can lubricate the faults. Especially, those with rocks that compose ancient clay. Water can alleviate, or it can trigger. But whichever, it means that water is very essential for the way a fault moves, and why it moves. The rocks down there in the crust hold an amazing amount of water. More than we think. In past, I have posted articles about how drought followed by rainfall causes earthquakes. Of course it doesn't cause all earthquakes. But it is involved in some way, great or small. The trick is trying to figure out the mix. You got mountain building, rifting, and even continental rebound. Each of these would be different depending on the water. Are the mountains on the coast and filled with sedimentary rock or granite. Is the rifting happening in Iceland an island in the ocean, or in Africa in the middle of a continent. Each case with be different. And think about it, continental rebound earthquakes are directly related to water due to the fact that it was a giant frozen slab of water that was ontop the North American continent. It was so dense it depressed the rock.

Think of it. Water can be giant piece of solid mass that can crush and deform rock. And in the same instant somewhere nearby, water is as tiny as migrating molecules which can pass right through rock. It's movement can shatter and scrub clean, solid rock.

Water is the universal solvent. It appears water is more universal than we think.

....


had to add

Really, my three examples of water and earthquakes is enough. But I remembered Ecuador. If you care about the example, go back to where I posted that cross section of the coast. That crust which is subducting is full of water rich sedimentary crust full of clay and limestone. Wet and slippery.

Wow, I still had some time to edit. The newest swarm, Empire, Nevada, if you zoom on the USGS down to a 5 km scale, there's 147 listed for the swarm. And it is a swarm by Muzzy's provided definition, because there was no major main shock. Now, historically, I haven't checked how far back the last big one was in this particular area.

Public ID 2016p355601
Intensity light
Universal Time May 11 2016, 13:44:23
NZ Standard Time Thu, May 12 2016, 1:44:23 am
Depth 88 km
Magnitude 5.2
Location 10 km west of Murupara, NI,NZ
Latitude, Longitude -38.49, 176.59
www.geonet.org.nz...
only 637felt reports for this one, not such an urban area as the SI one last night

Geofon converted it to 4.9Mw
geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...

It might be time to do another breakdown of SW of Kuyshu / Amakusa / Kumamoto series as a group. there has been a shift of activity the last few days, the northern parts of the Kumamoto series at Oita and Aso have stopped completely on 10/05JST (could just be temporary, but they have been getting less and less over the last week). There is new activity off Sashiki in the Amakusa Region, 3.8, 3.4, 3.2 and five other smaller ones, in the space of 2 hrs, these M3's are right up there as the biggest events in this "bridging" area since the Kyushu 7.1 in 2015.
So, based on the data for 10/05/2016JTS (the latest reviewed) Kyushu had 24 events, Kumamoto (southern part only) had 33.
Last analysis I did was only 6 days ago, but things have changed......
Kyushu 7.1 (this SW of Kuyshu/Amakusa/Kumamoto stuff near the bottom of the page)
3 areas graph comparison

Kumamoto is becoming a lot of work to keep up to date, mainly because of the Bing maps, now on the 19th map to cover the 4014 events since the first M6.5.

another one ............. and closer
I heard this one, thought it was a truck going by, but apparently not
Public ID 2016p356222
Intensity moderate
Universal Time May 11 2016, 19:15:32
NZ Standard Time Thu, May 12 2016, 7:15:32 am
Depth 35 km
Magnitude 4.7
Location 10 km west of Masterton
Latitude, Longitude -40.95, 175.51
www.geonet.org.nz...
Intensity Reports
strong 1
moderate 16
light 1267
weak 197
Total 1481

a reply to: muzzy

Do you think this activity is related to Ruapehu?

I read somewhere else, there was no connection.

And another one , bigger, Definitely felt this one, same routine, heard it first thoguht it was the wind, then it started shaking
Public ID 2016p356297
Intensity strong
Universal Time May 11 2016, 19:55:18
NZ Standard Time Thu, May 12 2016, 7:55:18 am
Depth 27 km
Magnitude 5.2
Location 20 km west of Masterton
Latitude, Longitude -40.92, 175.42
www.geonet.org.nz...

Intensity Reports
strong 13
moderate 161
light 2495
weak 115
Total 2784

a reply to: crappiekat
In the bigger scheme of things maybe
Masterton quakes will be from the Mt Holdsworth M5.2 of 11th April, which are on the west side of the Wairarapa Graben (low sinking land area), also location of the 2014 Eketahuna 7 which was on the east side of the Graben.
Graben Wiki
Murapara quake was quite deep, probably due to sub-duction of the Pacific Plate from the Hikurangi Trench side.
Christchurch one, not sure.
All related to tectonic Plate movement in some way, including the Ruapehu lake heating and the White Island eruption