a reply to: SPECULUM
It appears you have just taken the Red Pill. It will take a bit to start assessing the situation now. I know it can be overwhelming once you
understand how fragile our society is.
First step: Identify most probable threats.
Baseline your "threat" probabilities. There are many possible Sit X situations and you cannot plan for them all ,just the most probable outcome of a
Currently there are a few on my "high probability" list (such as EMP & Bio event) but almost ALL major scenarios have the same outcome (in my opinion)
and that is why you should plan for the outcome of the event and not particularly the event itself which the cause may vary.
That most probable outcome is -Disruption of Electricity or Transportation for an extended period of time... that is it and really all that it would
take to cause a massive chaotic situation. "Something" causes massive transportation / electrical shutdown for an extended period of time or over a
No Transportation = No Food for 95% or more of the population within days.... This is the primary outcome and the primary problem since most people
only have a few days worth of food.
The Possible Outcomes of a nasty event:
Food runs out in days, rule of law quickly deteriorates, If in the winter, people will start burning anything to keep warm.. not a pretty scenario any
way you look at it.
It may take a couple of weeks before this happens but if supplies start running low......people get desperate.
In time (most experts say 72 hours) Chaos would reign in the major populated urban areas as the desperate "have nots" take to looting anything and
anyone that still has resources in the area as the stores and warehouses would already be picked clean. This possible situation can get rather ugly
and dangerous very quickly once it starts and then it may be too late to travel safely out of the area. I recommend leaving an urban area quickly
unless you have a secret concrete bunker somewhere in your back yard.
In urban area and the suburbs, The Authorities may go door to door to "centralize" food for "distribution" IF there is still an order structure in
place to feed the masses. If those "authorities" realize or know that there is no help coming anytime soon, they may take what they have "confiscated"
for themselves and "fortress" up somewhere. There are many possibilities here which makes this possible situation even more dangerous. This is why
"Bugging In" a standard residence may not be such a good idea.
In this type of situation, You would rather "quickly" get to your "concealed" shelter and wait it out if you don't want any part of the looting or
having to defend yourself from looters. If nobody knows that your shelter is even there, nobody is coming to "see what you have".
In my opinion, grabbing a BoB backpack and a gun and running into the woods is an idiots plan of desperation in most cases. I would suggest you don't
run for a state park... there will be plenty who do this and they may find themselves in a crowd of people who came with a rifle and a bugout bag who
may decide your stuff is worth more than their morality if you catch my drift.
Having a planned shelter with supplies is the only answer in my opinion.