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Russia/OPEC - 'We will live in a different reality'.

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posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 02:29 PM
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originally posted by: Vector99

China and the US are allies too. Who do you think buys all the Chinese crap? To be honest, China would most likely love to see Russia keep on the path they are, making China the #2 power in the world.


originally posted by: Vector99

It wouldn't surprise me one little bit if Russia keeps presence in Syria to prevent the Qatar pipeline that we start seeing "terrorist attacks" on Russian pipelines.


Again I agree with you.




posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 02:30 PM
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a reply to: Vector99




It wouldn't surprise me one little bit if Russia keeps presence in Syria to prevent the Qatar pipeline that we start seeing "terrorist attacks" on Russian pipelines.
That is always going to be one of the possible hazards to a pipeline but I would think more so in the Middle East .I see Russia got the power back on in the Crimea and the bridge must be getting close to being finished .



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 02:52 PM
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a reply to: FamCore




I had absolutely NO idea that Russia was going (or even could go) head to head with OPEC like this.


Russia can't sustain a low price per barrel battle with Opec, as they need at least $98 per barrel to be profitable.


The Russians played a dangerous game by invading Crimea and starting a conflict with the Ukraine over natural gas and oil exports. Russia needs the price of oil to be $98 or higher in order to produce it at a profit, and its economy, along with the value of the ruble, have been hit hard as a result. Over $150 billion has been lost in GDP to the low price of oil, and many fear that Russia may yet again default.


www.investopedia.com...



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 03:05 PM
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a reply to: tsurfer2000h



The oil price has fallen by more than 30% since Summer 2014. This affected everyone from producers to consumers. The visualization represents Oil Price Dynamics, Breakeven Oil Price which shows oil prices needed to meet general government expenditure and Marginal Cost of Oil Production which shows the change in total cost of producing one additional barrel of oil.
World oil price at $55-$60 / barrel exceeds the cost of Russian Arctic oil production, Europe and Brazil biofuels production, shale and tight oil production in US and Canada and offshore oil extraction in Brazil.
State budgets of oil-producing countries will suffer from oil price decrease if the market price falls below breakeven price. In Dec. 2014 world oil prices fell lower than necessary for almost all oil exporters in order to balance their government expenditures.

The data comes from IMF, Deutsche Bank, Citi Research and Reuters
knoema.com... lots of info at the link .



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 03:18 PM
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originally posted by: JedemDasSeine

originally posted by: MrSpad
OPEC and Russia cut a deal a year ago to cut production but, Russia broke it.

Can you provide a source of this information?


originally posted by: MrSpad
Add to that Libya's faster than expected transition to peace.

What? "Transition to peace"? Thanks to the western intervention to the sovereign country, it turned from one of the richest state in Africa into the destroyed one.


Sorry, Russia broke the deal in 2002 and OPEC has not trusted them since. You can find a ton of sources of every variety. And maybe you have missed things in Libya but, things are moving much faster then thought bringing oil production back on line much faster. The one thing that unites Libyan is remembering the horrors of Qaddafi, creating muesuems to remember the people murdered under his regime, trying to identify remains found in mass graves. The 1980 and 90s in Libya were filled with riots, attempted coups, military purges, assassination attempts and attempted invasions of Chad. Libyas oil wealth went the ruling party and trying to buy international good will and crazy projects. Let us not forget that Libya had a 30% unemployment rate leading in part to the protests. So lets us not pretend the Libyan people were rich or happy because if you go their and tell them that they will be happy to show you just how wrong you are.



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 03:24 PM
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a reply to: tsurfer2000h

a reply to: the2ofusr1
I've been trying to find stats regarding oil production costs. They are all over the place depending which site you look at. I looked at that knoema site, but their source seems to be themselves. I can't find the information anywhere on their other sources (IMF, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Reuters).

It seems the production costs might be a bit inflated, I doubt the entire world is pumping oil at a loss, but I've been wrong many times before.



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 03:30 PM
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This is a good piece to read .Seems that these low prices are bringing to light many misconceptions about the industry .

The world isn’t going quite the way Saudi Arabia expected when it led OPEC to declare a pricing war against US shale drillers last year by flooding the market with crude oil. Far from being a quick kill, shale drillers have stubbornly held on, and OPEC has suffered along with them.
But, as its members return home today after their latest biannual meeting in Vienna, OPEC’s problem isn’t only that it was wrong-footed by oil prices, historically the most potent tool for punishing and pushing out unwanted competitors. It’s that seemingly all the traditional tools for determining strategy have failed this time.
And not only for OPEC—the usual divining rods have suddenly gone faulty for the entire energy industry, along with governments, analysts, scholars, and journalists. All wrongly anticipated how low prices would drop and for how long, along with the degree to which oil companies and petro-states would keep drilling despite it all.
“We’re not good at predicting prices and not good at predicting costs, and all this has geopolitical implications,” Jeff Colgan, a professor at Brown University, told Quartz
qz.com...



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 03:41 PM
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a reply to: the2ofusr1

Nice article, this stood out

This tool (see the IMF’s version, right) simply divides a petro-state’s daily oil production by its national budget, and arrives at the oil price required to be in fiscal balance


It seems the IMF comes to the cost of production if the economy was ran solely on oil. Am I misreading it?



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 04:29 PM
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a reply to: Vector99

It's really hard to get a good grip on a lot of the metrics they use or misuse . We seem to be led to believe by the IMF or were that they wouldn't or couldn't make loans to countries ,ie Greece because of the rules but they have just recently decided to ignore or change the rules for Ukraine .....go figure ....



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 05:23 PM
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a reply to: grantbeed

You might find this video interesting uploaded 6 days ago. Christopher Greene of AMTV talks about how low oil prices will cause WW3.



Start at 1:00 minutes to skip ad.


edit on 11-12-2015 by deliberator because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 05:29 PM
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originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: jaws1975

Russia will cut social welfare over the defense budget. What do you think the people of Russia will do when there is no food?


Russia grows food.

Saudis?

What will the people of Arabia do when there is no money for servants and A/C, and they know most of it was stolen by the dissipative House of Saud? I think the Saudis are more vulnerable to revolutionaries with swords than Russia.
edit on 11-12-2015 by mbkennel because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 05:58 PM
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originally posted by: mbkennel


Saudis?


I found this.

Also, numbers. 30 million Saudis to feed compared to 140 million Russians.

edit on 11-12-2015 by Vector99 because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 07:27 PM
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a reply to: deliberator

cheers, will take a look at the video. The friction built up right now sums up what these Countries know is going on behind the scenes with Oil plans. All of them will go to War if they feel like they are going to lose out on Oil Revenue as they all have in the past.


edit on 11-12-2015 by grantbeed because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 09:30 PM
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How is Russia "winning" when their economy is being devastated and OPEC is still making a profit?



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 09:46 PM
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originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: jaws1975

Yes, but Russia is dangerously tempting a revolution if they try this. Saudi has the US behind them, so they will be fine as long as the oil keeps flowing to the US. The article points this little gem of a statement out

“The biggest danger is that the reserve fund will be exhausted by the end of 2016. They will then have to monetise the deficit or cut real spending by another 10pc. They can’t cut defence so that leaves social welfare,” he said.


Russia will cut social welfare over the defense budget. What do you think the people of Russia will do when there is no food?
Tzar Nicholas the 2nd ???



posted on Dec, 11 2015 @ 10:40 PM
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a reply to: OccamsRazor04

Remember it's not just about profit, it's about control. Control of the future. OPEC will never be satisfied if their profits have dropped so drastically. If they think their losing some control, its time for War


edit on 11-12-2015 by grantbeed because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 12 2015 @ 05:35 AM
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originally posted by: Vector99

It wouldn't surprise me one little bit if Russia keeps presence in Syria to prevent the Qatar pipeline that we start seeing "terrorist attacks" on Russian pipelines.


By the way, CIA already has experience in organising the diversions concerning gas infrastructure of the USSR (they did it at least once in 1982):


"In order to disrupt the Soviet gas supply, its hard currency earnings from the West, and the internal Russian economy, the pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines, and valves was programmed to go haywire, after a decent interval, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to pipeline joints and welds," Reed writes.

"The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space." US satellites picked up the explosion.

"While there were no physical casualties from the pipeline explosion, there was significant damage to the Soviet economy."

Source 1, Source 2, Source 3.



posted on Dec, 12 2015 @ 07:37 AM
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a reply to: JedemDasSeine

And did the same to Iran's nuclear program with stuxnet.



posted on Dec, 12 2015 @ 08:08 AM
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a reply to: snowspirit

The U.S. could do with a bit of producing its own end product as well!



posted on Dec, 12 2015 @ 09:07 AM
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originally posted by: rickymouse
Most of the price of oil was caused by speculation. The oil companies sell the oil to the market where it is raised in price often three fold then sold back to the same companies refineries.


Also, a lot of the big players like Goldman Sachs were stock piling it on tankers and have simply run out of room now.
The vampire squid has nowhere to turn to now.



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