Is Mt. Rainier Volcano in Washington State Experiencing Tornillos? (I hope not)

As long as it is not yellowstone I am good to go. The ash could suck here but owell.

Around 5,000 years ago, a large chunk of the volcano slid away and that debris avalanche helped to produce the massive Osceola Mudflow, which went all the way to the site of present-day Tacoma and south Seattle.

A repeat of the Osceola mudflow would destroy Enumclaw, Orting, Kent, Auburn, Puyallup, Sumner and all of Renton. Such a mudflow might also reach down the Duwamish estuary and destroy parts of downtown Seattle, and cause tsunamis in Puget Sound and Lake Washington.

a reply to: schuyler

This is far digressing from the OP, and bordering on off-topic. The issue is whether or not tornillos are occurring- and nowhere have I mentioned anything about tremor. Now since you can't seem to dispute my presentation from a scientific standpoint- by showing me why what I have presented is wrong- I guess then you are entitled to your own opinion. No volcanologist in his or her right mind would ever claim there is no imminent danger from an active, andesitic stratovolcano. And they won't because of the many, many examples where they got it wrong. Galeras is just one example that killed scientists, but there are many others.

And further, if those really ARE tornillos, it could indicate a change in the magmatic system. Magma could be accumulating under that vast amount of ice for all we know. It is extremely difficult to tell when there is so much ice. Here's some more facts:

Andesite magma commonly erupts from stratovolcanoes as thick lava flows, some reaching several km in length. Andesite magma can also generate strong explosive eruptions to form pyroclastic flows and surges and enormous eruption columns. Andesites erupt at temperatures between 900 and 1100° C.

Facts:
The word andesite is derived from the Andes Mountains, located along the western edge of South America, where andesite rock is common.

Andesite was the main rock type erupted during the great Krakatau eruption of 1883.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

This is in contrast to St. Helens, which is mostly dacite. Both are high in silica content, and can produce massive, plinian type explosive eruptions.

Am I claiming Rainier is going to erupt? No. But what I am saying is that if those are tornillos, it is possible we could be closer to an eruption than we were several months ago when there were none that I can see. I don't see what is wrong with calling attention to this change in seismic character I believe to have found. I could be wrong, and I'll be the first to admit it. But the pictures speak for themselves, and so far, no one seems to be contesting those. So contest them. I'm waiting.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
Just today a couple of odd events registered at Rainier on the USGS website:

They are listed as "Other" events. So let me show you those "Other" events...

After I reviewed the USGS - Mt Rainier - Monitoring pages, these events, there was a 3rd, are very shallow and IMO probably not related to magma movement.
M1.1 Other Event - 29km N of Packwood, Washington - depth=0.018 KM
M1.3 Other Event - 30km N of Packwood, Washington - depth=0.018 KM
M0.5 - 27km NNW of Packwood, Washington - depth=0.025

peace

Interesting, I have been having visions of Rainier for about 2 weeks now, remembering how crazy it looks when you drive by.

That thing blows it will make St.Helens forgotten, that ice cap is immense, the mountain just looks absolutely crazy and is one of the most amazing things I have ever seen.

Even more interesting is this July 2014 article I found from LA Times by Julia Rosen referencing a paper published on Nature.com were it describes scientists basically took an MRI of the earth under Mt Rainier and found it's perched over a plume and blob of magma resembling a lava lamp, or in technical terms Diapirs. Not to be confused with Huggies(tm) or Pampers(tm). Check out the image and caption part way down the LA Times article, I would post it here but don't know how. In the second paragraph is a link to the actual paper if you want to give it a read.

The study only analyzed East West so they don't yet have the data looking North South. Nonetheless, Mt Rainier is more unique compared to it's cousins.

According to the study, Mount Rainier sits atop a massive "chimney" of magma, a configuration unlike other neighboring volcanoes in Oregon.

When Mt. Rainier does blow it's going to be an impressive spectacle. Before it does I hope people have enough good sense to get the heck out of there.

a reply to: Sherwood315

Well if you think about it, if they are not earthquakes, and not mine blasts, then what are they? More glacier movement? Small, sudden shifts in the snowpack? Those usually show up as skipping a bit, and I recognize the signatures. And these aren't it. "Other" events. I doubt the UW even knows for sure. All they can do is speculate.

a reply to: Sherwood315

Excellent post Sherwood. Now see, THAT is the kind of post we need around here. Things that contribute directly to the subject for a more thorough understanding. Clearly you are searching and digging. Thank you.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Thank you for this post. S&F and I hope you'll keep it updated.

Are you saying the people living around there may be screwed?

How is seismic data from one of those different than other seismic activity?

To the south and west or Ranier there are definitely two separate erosion channels with valleys containing a bunch of towns, would not want to be there if it goes. To the east? Looks like state or national park(s). Not sure, but there'd probably some campers pooping their pampers.

As with St. Helens, you probably don't want to be within 10mi. I remember going going to the park there (St. Helens) in the mid 1990's while visiting my sister in Seattle. One of the craziest things I saw was a rusted hulk of a wagon covered in ash with the paint scorched off and all windows missing. And what may have been somebody in the driver's seat. (Bunch of baked on ash in the inside too.) This was at a lookout point across the valley from St. Helens where new trees were starting to grow at the time. (But I've never seen any pictures of that wrecked car, I wonder if it was removed? Shame if it was, because gruesome but cool.) If there was somebody in that car, you definitely have an idea of the last and most awesome thing they've ever seen. Anyone else ever been there around that time and seen it too?

As others have said they probably haven't replied because of the holiday. Also they may have orders not to release information because of the holiday. Wouldn't want to impact travel and commerce during this time of year.

Trueamerican knows his stuff and I'm thankful he's watching out for everyone in the PNW.

Mt. Rainier is a beautiful danger. Even if it steams, the lahar from glacier melt will follow the river paths and will effect the heart of Washington State (Puget Sound). That's several rivers that go through three major cities, Seattle , Tacoma, and Olympia and other cities that are the headquarters of big companies.

There is no escape from the lahar. All the free ways in the area are on the lahar path. On a normal day traffic is bad, if the volcano slightly steams and they get an hour warning, there's no way out. Only really hilly areas will survive and they will be islands. When I was in college taking a geology course, we looked at a historical lahar map. I lived in Kent, east hill and we were safe. Couldn't say much for downtown or neighboring cities.

a reply to: pauljs75

Their is an old komo news car still there at one of the st. Helens lookouts. If that volcano blows again, it will go out the north side because its the path of least resistance. Its unknown what side Rainier will blow, ideally east because less population.


True American, would tornillos be caused by glaciers settling after a new freeze? Last week there were some storms. This week it's been clear, or at least it's been clear near Portland. I no longer follow weather north of us as often as I used to.

originally posted by: collietta

True American, would tornillos be caused by glaciers settling after a new freeze? Last week there were some storms. This week it's been clear, or at least it's been clear near Portland. I no longer follow weather north of us as often as I used to.

Well, I can't say for sure, but I can say that I have been watching seismic data at Rainier for years and never seen these particular signatures there before. That doesn't mean they haven't happened. The scientists at UW and PNSN would know better than me. And yet, there seems to be no mention of them on the PNSN blog. They may be just as baffled by them as the rest of us, and could be studying them as we speak.

I can't imagine how a glacier could produce these signatures. I've seen all sorts of glacier slips, avalanches, rock falls, etc. there, but never seen these signatures until just recently.

And to be clear once again, I sent that email on November 18th, well before the holiday- but ok, close enough that it could be the reason I have no response yet. Or it could be they are not sure themselves to give an opinion either way. I just don't know. It's odd.

originally posted by: rickymouse
Are you saying the people living around there may be screwed?

No. I'll let the authorities determine that.

How is seismic data from one of those different than other seismic activity?

1) In that what little is seen of tornillos, they are almost always associated with fluid movement of some kind, and they only happen at select volcanoes. Apparently they happened at St. Helens and at Redoubt before eruptions.

2) Whereas both quakes and tremor can be associated with hydrothermal activity, or even gas activity, most of the time tornillos indicate magma movement (or at least so they think).

In studying some of these signatures more, like the ones from today, the apparent lack of energy in the 1 to 2 hz bands leads me to believe they are probably very shallow. In some of the other ones I sent to them, however, the exact opposite is true. The actual predominate frequency of them is exactly in the 1 to 2 hz bands, complicating this mystery. It could suggest two separate source mechanisms, if they are both tornillos in the first place. In those cases I think they are deeper. Much deeper. See the OP for the pics.

Hmm, daily recently thought to run an article....

www.dailymail.co.uk...
dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3305503/Could-Mount-St-Helens-erupt-Massive-magma-chamber-volcano-reveal-clues-future-explosions.html

a reply to: FlyingFox

Love your sig, was a big Ultraman fan as a kid.

Serious stuff...I understand tornillos.....just reading the op....their shape is due to softer substrate....like say...MAGMA...or next to magma...Ranier....the favorite beer that bear I cursed the lake campsite with.....liked to suck from the cans. that lake north of Concrete Washington. along about 2005, my curse took just about three minutes to manifest....from the reports. I had to do it.....it was a God thing, the park ranger kicked me out at 12:20 am after I had payed for the campsite.....as I drove away I commanded God's hand to pop that bunch, the reports said the bear showed up before 12:30 and ripped open ice chests at the boat dock ( where I was actually ) till sun-up.....had to be darted. he only wanted the Ranier cans....like 36 of them

I was fortunate enough to take a vacation early this year and drive up the Pacific Coast before flying out of SeaTac. We saw Mt. Rainier from the air, and it was one hell of an impressive sight! If that baby blows that thick glacial cap, it would be like shaking up and then cracking open an unimaginably huge champagne bottle... Not good at all for nearby residents. And you're absolutely right, the blast wave and searing hot pyroclastic clouds could be of unparalleled speed, size and strength than anything in modern history.

Very scary to contemplate. But I know I speak for the vast majority of the ATS community when I say thank you TrueAmerican- it's plain to see that you know your stuff. This thread isn't wild speculation or scaremongering, and you wouldn't bring this to all of our attention unless it was worth monitoring. I'd say that's one of the things ATS is all about, each of us using our skills and specializations to keep our group more prepared and well-informed.

Nice to know someone has a keen eye out for trouble. Keep up the good work friend!