a thought recently crossed my mind. If i remember correctly, there is a star wars race or something going on. Where the superpowers are trying to be the first to develop anti-nukes/missiles/icbm defense.

If one of the country has made a significant leap in the discovery, and are within an arms reach of success, would that trigger panic in the other nations? Ie. their nukes will be useless, whichever country develops that defense will almost have EXTREME power, as the US did when they first invented the atomic bomb.

So my question is, how would the other nations react in such an event? I am specifically interested in US, China, North Korea.

First off, I find the scenerio to be unlikely.
Second, Star Wars and ABM system is still far from being 'perfect'.
Third, both China and Russia are developing ICBM's that incorporate decoys and dummies, besides being MIRV's.
Fourth, North Korea is a non-mention in all this.

I understand what you are thinking, but even in a hypothetical scenerio, say as the one you presented, there is no trigger for a "pre-emptive" strike, let alone it being successful, because though the strike may be 'successful', the return strike will also be 'successful'. It all still amounts to M.A.D. and is likely not to change till a near full-proof ABM/Star Wars system is engaged/developed. IMHO, I don't see this taking place anytime soon.




seekerof

Originally posted by chensta
a thought recently crossed my mind. If i remember correctly, there is a star wars race or something going on. Where the superpowers are trying to be the first to develop anti-nukes/missiles/icbm defense.

If one of the country has made a significant leap in the discovery, and are within an arms reach of success, would that trigger panic in the other nations? Ie. their nukes will be useless, whichever country develops that defense will almost have EXTREME power, as the US did when they first invented the atomic bomb.

So my question is, how would the other nations react in such an event? I am specifically interested in US, China, North Korea.

It is widely speculated (and probably correct) that some sort of comprehensive defensive system against a nuclear attack would make war more likely. However, the systems being designed and put into place (unlike the "star wars" plans of the 80's and 90's) can not protect a country from a large scale nuclear attack. I think the mere presence of a defensive system would not trigger an attack from your adversary - rather it makes you more likely to consider a first strike.

To loosely quote Nicole Kidman from "The Peacemakers", I'm not afraid of the person who wants 100 nuclear weapons - but those who want just 1 scare me to death.

There some flawed logic at work here. The missiles defence system would prevent the likes of North Korea from holding the world hostage if they dont have there nukes to blackmail the world they have nothing left the countrie would collapse weather or not North Korea would take one last gamble who knows?
As for China well there going to to war with Taiwan in the future even without star wars although that is a differnt issue. Perhaps the US and its allies see star wars as a way of countering the economic and military growth of china.

the risk of mutual destruction is what keeps countries from going to the nuclear level. this is known as MAD, and i believe there are several other topics in this forum on it.
by adding a star wars system, it tips the balance of power and gives one side the confidence in believign that they can survive a nuclear war, which is not a good thing, as they get a bit reckless with the nukes. not necesarilly true, but that is what i have heard, and this is what i believe.

by adding a star wars system, it tips the balance of power and gives one side the confidence in believign that they can survive a nuclear war, which is not a good thing, as they get a bit reckless with the nukes. not necesarilly true, but that is what i have heard, and this is what i believe.

What you have said is true . But look at it this way Star Wars prevents the likes of North Korea from acting reckless with there nukes. Say for example the US and its allies went to war with china Star Wars would allow the Americans to use there nukes aganst the Chinese while preventing the Chinese from using there nukes against the USA and its allies.

xpert11, i understand what your saying, but thats from an american point of view. Lets say we flip it around.

China is about to develop a complete Star Wars system. If they goto war with america, they can launch nukes, and do not have to worry about retaliation. Your country (america) couldnt do anything.

Now how would that make you feel? And now think how would that make the politicians feel.

Originally posted by chensta
xpert11, i understand what your saying, but thats from an american point of view. Lets say we flip it around.

China is about to develop a complete Star Wars system. If they goto war with america, they can launch nukes, and do not have to worry about retaliation. Your country (america) couldnt do anything.

Now how would that make you feel? And now think how would that make the politicians feel.

I wouldn't say nothing. The US (as well as Russia, and to a lesser extent China) have the capability to deliver signifigant numbers of warheads via cruise missiles (Air/sea launched) as well as bombers. With this in mind, even a comprehensive ABM system does not eliminate the prospect of MAD and therfore would not make nuclear exhcanges much more likely...

xpert11, i understand what your saying, but thats from an american point of view. Lets say we flip it around.

China is about to develop a complete Star Wars system. If they goto war with america, they can launch nukes, and do not have to worry about retaliation. Your country (america) couldnt do anything.

Now how would that make you feel? And now think how would that make the politicians feel.

First of all Im not an American. The fact that China can develop a Star Wars program is all the more reason for the USA to develop the Star Wars program. China dosnt have its own Star Wars program unless there keeping it secret they are already behind the 8 ball. In other words I would rather the USA had the Stars Wars program before the likes of China do thats if China chooses to develop its own Star Wars program.