Putin's Big Gamble. Will it pay off?

a reply to: LordOfArcadia

By shooting down the Russian plane as promised, Erdogan has proven that he is as tough as Putin; this will make cooperation between Russia and Turkey possible. For the time being, Putin will make ugly noises about Turkey backing terrorism, but he will quietly order operations away from the border. The endgame of the chess match will be an agreement to let Assad stay as an interim head of state while the rebels and loyalists craft a new constitution. This will permit the rebels to cooperate against DAESH under the joint supervision of Russia, Turkey, France, and Iran.

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: LordOfArcadia

By shooting down the Russian plane as promised, Erdogan has proven that he is as tough as Putin; this will make cooperation between Russia and Turkey possible. For the time being, Putin will make ugly noises about Turkey backing terrorism, but he will quietly order operations away from the border. The endgame of the chess match will be an agreement to let Assad stay as an interim head of state while the rebels and loyalists craft a new constitution. This will permit the rebels to cooperate against DAESH under the joint supervision of Russia, Turkey, France, and Iran.

Turkey is actually backing Isis though. They have been buying Isis oil and either providing or allowing shipment of weapons to the terrorists. And, shooting down a foreign countries jet isn't "proving how tough you are", it's basically an act of war. I have no idea how you think that will endear Russia to Turkey so that they will work together. That's so entirely illogical.

a reply to: pirhanna

Buying contraband is not exactly the same thing as support. Turkey has an interest in supporting Sunnis, not necessarily supporting "ISIS." Their chief interest is in being the most powerful state in the region. Shooting down an airplane that was deliberately violating your airspace is not an act of war, it is an act demonstrating commitment and an absence of fear: strength. You might not understand it, but it is not illogical. The strong only deal with the strong: the weak, they crush. Obama's failure to back up his "line in the sand" has made him look weak, opening the door for Russia to commit openly to war in Syria. Erdogan drew a line in the sand, and when it was crossed, he acted. Hitler did not respect Chamberlain, he respected Stalin.

a reply to: LordOfArcadia

So, how do you defeat an alliance when you are weaker both militarily and economically?

It doesn't matter if you can't match up with your enemy...it's how you fight that decides the outcome.

Just look at Afghanistan, Viet Nam is also another good example.

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: LordOfArcadia

By shooting down the Russian plane as promised, Erdogan has proven that he is as tough as Putin; this will make cooperation between Russia and Turkey possible. For the time being, Putin will make ugly noises about Turkey backing terrorism, but he will quietly order operations away from the border.

Why would he? What's in it for Putin?

Ergodan handed Putin a perfect opportunity: strengthen Assad further and simultaneously split the political unity of NATO. Putin knows that Ergodan is an easily offended nationalist and will exploit that.

US wants a political solution now--Ergodan wants a Sharia solution. Putin will exploit that difference.

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: pirhanna

Buying contraband is not exactly the same thing as support.

Neither is it the same as supporting your NATO allies against a monstrously wicked and dangerous power.

Suppose Australia had been buying contraband goods from Japan in 1942?

originally posted by: mbkennel

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: pirhanna

Buying contraband is not exactly the same thing as support.

Neither is it the same as supporting your NATO allies against a monstrously wicked and dangerous power.

Suppose Australia had been buying contraband goods from Japan in 1942?

64 countries buy oil from ISIS and the Western banking is where the money circulates to and from .

Suppose 63 countries were buying contraband goods from Japan in 1942 and Australia decided to become the 64th country to buy contraband goods from Japan.

The wicked game is being played in the heart of Ex Ottoman Lands and close vicinity to Turk Lands .

ISIS wants to kill Erdogan and you think ISIS works for Erdogan ?

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: pirhanna

Buying contraband is not exactly the same thing as support. Turkey has an interest in supporting Sunnis, not necessarily supporting "ISIS." Their chief interest is in being the most powerful state in the region. Shooting down an airplane that was deliberately violating your airspace is not an act of war, it is an act demonstrating commitment and an absence of fear: strength. You might not understand it, but it is not illogical. The strong only deal with the strong: the weak, they crush. Obama's failure to back up his "line in the sand" has made him look weak, opening the door for Russia to commit openly to war in Syria. Erdogan drew a line in the sand, and when it was crossed, he acted. Hitler did not respect Chamberlain, he respected Stalin.

Nicely summed up .

originally posted by: 23432

originally posted by: mbkennel

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: pirhanna

Buying contraband is not exactly the same thing as support.

Neither is it the same as supporting your NATO allies against a monstrously wicked and dangerous power.

Suppose Australia had been buying contraband goods from Japan in 1942?

64 countries buy oil from ISIS and the Western banking is where the money circulates to and from .

Suppose 63 countries were buying contraband goods from Japan in 1942 and Australia decided to become the 64th country to buy contraband goods from Japan.

The wicked game is being played in the heart of Ex Ottoman Lands and close vicinity to Turk Lands .

ISIS wants to kill Erdogan and you think ISIS works for Erdogan ?

Erdogan might not be directly responsible but he is indirectly as it is his country and he is responsible for keeping a clean house and securing the borders. Barrels of oil don’t just magically turn up.

a reply to: mbkennel

Why would he? What's in it for Putin?

The opportunity to broker a deal that favors Russia and makes Putin look like a "peacemaker" instead of a warmonger.

Ergodan handed Putin a perfect opportunity: strengthen Assad further and simultaneously split the political unity of NATO. Putin knows that Ergodan is an easily offended nationalist and will exploit that.

Putin cannot risk having his investment in Crimea ruined by having th Black Sea fleet immobilized by Turkey, and it would be disastrous for him to engage a large, modern army with his current forces stretched as thin as they are. Turkey is not Georgia or Ukraine. They might not even need to invoke Section V.

US wants a political solution now--Ergodan wants a Sharia solution. Putin will exploit that difference.

In case you haven't noticed, American interests have become irrelevant. People have been looking forward to a world without the Pax Americana, or American Empire, if you prefer. The US is no longer offering a security umbrella to its allies r using its might to maintain geopolitcal balance.

Without the US around to tip the scales, Russia, Iran, France and Turkey will start redrawing the map of West Asia to suit their own ends, just as France and Britain did almost exactly 100 years ago. Syria will lose a chunk of territory abutting the Kurdish portion of Iraq and Kurdistan will be born. Turkey can relocate its Kurds there. The borders of the other states will be adjusted to reflect the regional sectarian demographics. Russia gets to keep its bases-- maybe even gain some new ones in what's left of Iraq-- and he reaps acclaim for his diplomacy. Oh, and of course all the states that agree to this become clients.

originally posted by: crazyewok


Erdogan might not be directly responsible but he is indirectly as it is his country and he is responsible for keeping a clean house and securing the borders. Barrels of oil don’t just magically turn up.

Turks are doing fine considering the 2.5 Million refugees they took .

You have no idea about the burden the Turks has to put up with thanks to wars around them .

Have a look at the map and realise the border is impossible to keep % 100 safe & secure .
Just like USA - Mexico borders , Turkish - Syrian borders are long and impossible to keep people out .

There is even a minefield between the two countries for crying out loud and you have the audacity of accusing Turks of not doing enough to keep the border secure ?

Barrells of oil are turning up everywhere not just at the border of Turks. Syrian economy is still functioning with ISIS in charge and everyone is turning a blind eye to it .
So if you going to single out Turks for what everyone else also do ; then you probably have ulterior motives .

You probably think that you are better then a Turk .

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: LordOfArcadia

By shooting down the Russian plane as promised, Erdogan has proven that he is as tough as Putin; this will make cooperation between Russia and Turkey possible. For the time being, Putin will make ugly noises about Turkey backing terrorism, but he will quietly order operations away from the border. The endgame of the chess match will be an agreement to let Assad stay as an interim head of state while the rebels and loyalists craft a new constitution. This will permit the rebels to cooperate against DAESH under the joint supervision of Russia, Turkey, France, and Iran.

Shows how little you think you know. Putin is already pounding the same area. Putin and everyone else knows Turkey is behind ISIS completely. No, listen clearly. No Russian attack will bring in NATO. Turkey has gone to the side of the hard core Islamic's long since they were made a member. Putin is free to bomb the ever loving crap out of Turkey if he wishes and every leader of every other country in NATO is probably telling Putin that right now, all except Obama. NATO is a American-European club. Turkey was only let in to set Nukes on Russia's border back in the day and provide a massive boost in manpower if needed. We have already seen Turkey stick it to the U.S. before so the U.S. needs to let Putin give them a beating. Greece sure would be all smiles.

a reply to: 23432

LOL, Turkey is supplying ISIS, completely. Court documents were found by a reporter who is now in jail there for exposing the fact that the Turkish government is in complete control of ISIS. 100 percent!!!

a reply to: Patriotsrevenge

Putin and everyone else knows Turkey is behind ISIS completely. No, listen clearly.

People keep saying that but no-one seems to be able to prove it.

No Russian attack will bring in NATO. Turkey has gone to the side of the hard core Islamic's long since they were made a member.

Turkey's rural areas always been very conservative, whereas its economy has always relied on westernized, secular city dwellers. Erdogan's "Islamism" is for the domestic market.

Putin is free to bomb the ever loving crap out of Turkey if he wishes and every leader of every other country in NATO is probably telling Putin that right now, all except Obama.

Why? Because they want Turkish refugees?

NATO is a American-European club. Turkey was only let in to set Nukes on Russia's border back in the day and provide a massive boost in manpower if needed.

Turkey is a European nation. The issue was not just nukes, it was control of the Black Sea, where the Soviets, and now Russia, has a year round port. NATO cannot afford to lose control of the Bosporus, and Russia cannot take the risk of it being mined.

originally posted by: Patriotsrevenge
a reply to: 23432

LOL, Turkey is supplying ISIS, completely. Court documents were found by a reporter who is now in jail there for exposing the fact that the Turkish government is in complete control of ISIS. 100 percent!!!

Link, please. (Fully expecting to see the words zerohedge.com appear as if by magic.)

a reply to: DJW001

Ironic they all seem to have issues with Turkey since they shot down a russian warplane in its airspace yet prior to that russia had no issue with turkey, to the point of a pipeline.


Putin is throwing a temper tantrum and nothing more.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Putin is throwing a temper tantrum and nothing more.

Ultimately, Russia needs Turkey's good will more than it needs Assad in power. What we are seeing now is political theater. Given that the next American president will have a point to prove when they take office, Putin only has a year to get the region in shape. If he can maintain influence with the next Syrian regime, getting rid of Assad is a no-brainer.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Its not as clear to many including NATO members what or why it may have happened . Turkey has gone mad in responce to what they did and are not liking the response coming from around the world . I am thinking that Erdongan needs to convince his own political establishment they are the good guys while the negative wave makes its way back to Turkey ....Big big $$$$ are on the line for them ...

a reply to: the2ofusr1

Yeah ive seen the names blasting turkey. The same groups that said the election in Crimea was above board. After all that turkey still has the support of a lot of countries, including nato.

Russia thinks popularity is more important than truth.


Russia is already sanctioned. Turkey will be just fine.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Russia is already sanctioned. Turkey will be just fine.

The second vid is worth watching as there seems to be a lot of effort and rhetoric going on to convince the other Turkey politicians what you claim is nothing to worry about . Even Obama has been asking for calm because of how this could escalate . ...Putin now has legitimate reasons to bolster the military forces in Syria and I would suspect good evidence to take to the security council to make a resolution .....all thanks to a trigger happy Turkey ....