China is Buying 24 Su-35s for $2 Billion, has Interesting(!) Implications

The Russians have confirmed they have closed a deal with the Chinese for the sale of 24 Su-35s for the price of $2 billion.

I think this has a lot of very, very interesting implications.

1. It sure seems as though the Chinese feel their knockoff of the Su-27 (J-11) will not be enough to deal with whatever military challenges they are going to face. I'd expect that to some extent: the J-11, even with updating, will be facing F-22s, F-35s and several ASEAN nations are looking at Su-27s and Su-35s of their own. Parity is a bad place to be. In light of that, the purchase makes perfect sense. The Chinese can clone the Su-35 like they have the Su-27.

2. HOWEVER! This strongly implies any indigenous developments will not be ready in the same time frame as a Su-35 knockoff: either the Chinese are facing problems with their production or they do not think they can afford as many as they need. This would strongly imply they are having problems with the J-20 and/or the J-31.

The problems may be the stealth materials and/or the jet engines. Both are tough nuts to crack, especially with quality control for multiple manufacture rather than customized prototypes.

So! It may be the 5th gen fighters the Chinese are developing have a delivery date that has been pushed back significantly, since the time frame of an Su-35 clone would still be at least 5 years out from now at the earliest. The J-20 has been touted as having an IOC in 2017. This would mean at least 2020, if not 2022 or later.

Or so I think. Time for all y'all to poke holes.

a reply to: anzha

I'd be surprised by an IOC prior to 2020. They touted the first aircraft, and made sure that people saw the changes on later aircraft, then a few months later they all vanished.

Even as controlled as the net is in China, if they were in LRIP there should have been some recent news. I haven't seen anything in a long time now. I suspect they ran into materials issues.

Im thinking same with materials difficulty..China has always been geared towards mass production and having dealt with Chinese steel before (shudder) they have to look for outside help in sourcing or exploring new materials.Their biggest problem is "getting the whole project to work" as political infighting and knowledge cross feeding.The only part of Chinese tech that works well is their space arm.

a reply to: Blackfinger

THANK'S to Bill Clinton.

a reply to: anzha

USA to China: " Ha, ha, I told you so! Stealth isn't as easy as you thought now is it? "

a reply to: Blackfinger

A large part of the Chinese industrial system and economic strategy is structured to take intellectual property of other nations and reverse engineer them for their own gain. This is killing their own ability to innovate to build their own system of materiel development.
However and unfortunately with the lack of US industry cyber security, it's only a matter of time till they steal the trade secrets to effectively develop the materials they need to see these type of projects to fruition.

www.youtube.com...

a reply to: Sammamishman

Well, yes and no.

Its one thing to be able to craft something in a lab. One offs are, while not easy, possible to do.

Its an entirely different thing to mass manufacture .

While science and the universe cares little for nationality, it does seem to favor those nations with broad knowledge, not just single stolen diamonds fished across cyberspace.

C
hina uses a tiered system because who else other than America thinks it can produce thousands of stealth aircraft and the PLAAF admits the production line for the J-20 will not exceed 500 airplanes. Also according to some accounts the current stealth program like most military projects in China are technological test beds for the ultimate goal which is the first 6th generation fighter. They want to be masters of technology over a long time horizon.

Problem is the Stealth projects in the states will have jumped a couple of generations in materials and avionics by the time they have worked out the current level of stealth.
As they say finding a new material is easy,its figuring out how it was made and how it was used is the challenge.

a reply to: Blackfinger Another thing people don't realize is that China like most advanced countries has huge scientific establishment that is working on solutions to the most pressing science problem. So with combination of super computers and some pretty smart guys eventually problems get solved and questions answered.

a reply to: Harru42

A couple bits.

1. Speaking as a former user and sysadmin of supercomputers, do not assume they are a magic item bringing breakthrough after breakthrough. They are not oracles. Garbage in/garbage out. Additionally, HPC assets are more like custom computers and they get really, really finicky to keep them running and not have a single node crash rendering a user's simulation junk (it happens, a lot, even at some of the best HPC sites in the world).

2. The Chinese are far from idiots and its irritating when people here knock them down as just being able to rip off and copy and whatever they produce is junk. That's not true. They realize there's a huge catch up they need to do and the fastest way is to swipe what they can and use it to course correct to avoid a number of pitfalls we hit.

HOWEVER!

For whatever reason, the Chinese have shown they have serious problems in the material science and metallurgy areas. Especially when it comes to mass manufacturing something. That implies a very high reject rate meaning they can't get the process down properly and/or they just can't get it to work at all. Either case means they don't have a good handle on how to do the work.

a reply to: Sammamishman

Then there's the US to Russia: Rivets? And you call it STEALTHY?!

a reply to: Zaphod58

TASS is claiming the first Su-35s will be delivered next year (2016).

Either the Russians are diverting production to the Chinese because they REALLY need the money or they gambled and decided to start production before the contract was signed. Very probably both are true based on my experience with folks from members of the xUSSR.

a reply to: anzha

A big part of that comes from using Russian technology. Russia has the same problem, in that they're smart as hell, but things like their engines just suck beyond belief. Some of their aircraft have had do many engine problems on take off that now they sit on the end of the runway at full power, and if all the engines are at least close at the end of a certain time, they take off.

It only got worse after 1990, when they lost a huge chunk of their production/engineering base. The Su-34 service entry was a great example of this.

Of The first 16 aircraft, two had so many problems they had to be grounded to fix them. The other 14 had issues ranging from radios, to navigation systems, to fire control. They said if you went to three aircraft, and pulled the same board from all three, they'd all be assembled differently. Some had parts soldered onto the wrong side of the board, most had soldering problems, parts in different places, etc.

a reply to: anzha

Yeah, they need tape.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Good. The MFers. I have very personal ties to the Donbass and what happened there makes me see redder than IR.

Back on topic, quality assurance is one thing, but based on personal info, it seems like they can't get the matsci down quite right, not just in production.

One last comment on the supercomputers: everyone flipped out on the Japanese Earth Simulator back in the day (OMGIAmGettingOld), but the amount of real science that came out was abysmal. From what I've heard, Tianhe-2 is the same way. However, I walked away from HPC in August. I've been involved with that world off and on (more on) since 1990. With Moore's law being toast and noone looking into real architecture changes, I didnt want to do the same thing over and over for the next 16 years longer.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Earlier reports of the first Su-35s being delivered next year have been contradicted. Apparently the Russians are stating the first deliveries will be 3 years hence. That would suggest they are not interrupting the current deliveries for the Russian Aerospace Force.

That later date has even bigger implications for the J-20: it ain't coming quick no matter what. It might not even be a production fighter at all.

Cross your fingers. Maybe China will age out before their high tech is really ready.

a reply to: anzha

I think the Chinese tried to advance too far too quickly and ran into some serious issues with skipping some vital steps in the process will do. They may have realized that they need way more time to fully understand what it is that they are dealing with (reverse engineer) and be able to implement it effectively.
If that is the case then the J-20 and even the J-31 might be seen more as tech demonstrators 10 years from now.

Part of the deal includes installing a NKVS-27 airfield communication system.

Here are even more interesting implications. According to the Chief Editor of Arms Export, China doesn't have the tech to build a 5th gen, and doesn't need the Su-35, but is instead buying them for the engines. They're going to use them to build their own, and put them in their fifth gen fighters.