What will happen in middle east (:hey:)

4-5 years america will have 1 million men in Iraq or the vicinity of iraq\kuwait.
Year 5 - Launch offensive against iran
Then set eyes on saudi - 10/15 years
Don't believe me, wait and see!

economies that large need oil, even if it costs 1000's of lives\dollars

How do you know that in 10 to 15yrs large economies will be as dependent on crude oil as they
are today?

Sanc'.

They don't change over night, imagine all that machinery\economy becoming obsolete in such a small time, the phased changeover needs a supply to last some time, a supply of the black stuff.
You do have to realise how long the u.s would take to be back in the '30's, 10 years without oil from overseas? NO.... more like 10 days, those assets are surrely getting seen to.

I'm not asking about the next 2-5yrs, i'm interested what you see 15yrs from now, regarding crude oil dependence by large economies. Both consumption by buyers, and revenue by sellers.

I can see a major shift to other fuels such as gases and solar within a 15yr time frame.

Sanc'.


[edit on 4-1-2005 by sanctum]

Somehow I just don't see the US with 1 million men in Iraq, not now, not ever. Unless they institute another draft, which too many people oppose.

very easy to have 1 million men there without noticing, picture this:
300, 000 soldiers on ground in iraq
150, 000 in surrounding waters on ships
200, 000 in vicinity - (kuwait, turkey air bases)
150, 000 aid relief, rebuild
50, 000 oil related employees

That's a generous time frame....

I'm guessing we'll see military action against Iran before THIS year is out, likely more towards December. If not then, then early 2006. We'll STILL be in Iraq, though with isolated attacks becoming less frequent, and an organized resistance is no longer, only pockets of sabateurs/bombers.

The big question mark is going to be Isreal. Something tells me Isreal will be involved in the Iran action in a BIG way, and maybe not even with US approval. This is likely to irk it's Islamic neighbors, and we may even see a repeat of a unified attack on Isreal by such nations.

Basically, the burner's been hot, and the soup is simmering....just a question of when it's going to come to a full boil....