Phoenix Lights - UFO witness summary (11/3/2015)

originally posted by: JimOberg

All these factors are absent when judging unknown lights against a dark sky.

So any estimation of the range to the object[s] will be based on guesses and assumptions.

Don't you agree?

Whenever we say "close up surface" you say "distant lights".

Why is that? You are far smarter than I'll ever be, so that can't be the problem...

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

originally posted by: ZetaRediculian
I am all for speculating and drawing from other cases and all that....but just show where there is one documented case of planes in formation causing people to see things in the details described. Or is there another phenomenon here? like an inordinate amount of burned out hippies living in AZ?

I can't show a documented case of planes causing people to describe a massive low flying object - unless Phoenix counts - however the interweb is strewn with supposedly structured flying craft that have turned out to be planes, skydivers, satellites, fireballs, starts, clouds, lanterns, car headlights and even boats.

It is well documented how open memory is to being suggestive and how individuals can get caught up in group themes. Maybe atmospheric conditions contributed, the flares added further confusion as did media coverage or it was other reasons but the earlier reports were all consistent and didn't mention this huge craft with surface detail.

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

I could.

But seeing as I don't know you're not a kook who would harass them with calls... well, you get the picture.

Your registration date and post history would indicate that would be unwise. How about I give it to someone here I trust and they can tell you whether it's a place?

originally posted by: JimOberg
I had interpreted the comment to mean that human binocular vision showed that the lights in question were close.

The range for accurate depth perception via that method is between 40-60 feet in all the sources I've seen, and with a wider separation [moving head around] maybe a few hundred feet at most.

People judge greater distances while driving cars by estimation based on KNOWN SIZE of more distant objects.

All these factors are absent when judging unknown lights against a dark sky.

So any estimation of the range to the object[s] will be based on guesses and assumptions.

Don't you agree?

I agree with your last statement to the extent you're talking about an ambiguous white light against a black, featureless background, where no other visual cues are present. Like in a lab setting in some science experiment.

But... this wasn't a science experiment, and it wasn't just lights against deep black sky. What we have with the "Phoenix Lights" were sightings that started around sunset, continued on up through astronomical twilight, and then well into the night. Even after twilight -- heck, all night really -- the glow from a large town or city scatters light all over the atmosphere. Light pollution, basically. So a person is very capable of judging distances up through several hundred feet there, at a minimum. And most if not all witnesses from that one area said the craft, with its distinct "carpenter's square" edges, was only a few hundred feet above them. Barely clearing telephone poles, I recall someone saying. Someone else said he could possibly have hit the object with a tennis ball. And it took something like 10 minutes for it to fly over them. They could move their heads and everything during that time... shift their perspective by a few feet here and there... which is exactly what they did.

So it would be disingenuous to argue that people are not able to gauge distances under the circumstances present that night. Being able to intuitively "triangulate" unfamiliar objects, whose size we know nothing about, is something we instinctively do all the time. That black & white situation you're referring to is simplistic... but simplicity is its advantage, and is exactly why you're most likely to find it only in a controlled, laboratory environment.

originally posted by: TeaAndStrumpets......but simplicity is its advantage, and is exactly why you're most likely to find it only in a controlled, laboratory environment.

Agreed, which is why I think my Kiev 1963 report is so important to understanding how some such large craft reports originate.

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

I could.

But seeing as I don't know you're not a kook who would harass them with calls... well, you get the picture.

Your registration date and post history would indicate that would be unwise. How about I give it to someone here I trust and they can tell you whether it's a place?

I understand that but you might also not want to say the name of the company cuz you made it up.

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

I could.

But seeing as I don't know you're not a kook who would harass them with calls... well, you get the picture.

Your registration date and post history would indicate that would be unwise. How about I give it to someone here I trust and they can tell you whether it's a place?

I understand that but you might also not want to say the name of the company cuz you made it up.

I offered to tell a third party. That would solve both our issues.

a reply to: ZetaRediculian

I think you might have read my post incorrectly. I was referring to natural movements of the head, or even the instinctive shifts in body posture & positioning that we all make in order to help us better judge the distances to objects whose size we do not know. Parallax and all that, which is useful out to much greater distances than we get with just binocular vision alone....

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

I could.

But seeing as I don't know you're not a kook who would harass them with calls... well, you get the picture.

Your registration date and post history would indicate that would be unwise. How about I give it to someone here I trust and they can tell you whether it's a place?

I understand that but you might also not want to say the name of the company cuz you made it up.

I offered to tell a third party. That would solve both our issues.

who is the third party?

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

I could.

But seeing as I don't know you're not a kook who would harass them with calls... well, you get the picture.

Your registration date and post history would indicate that would be unwise. How about I give it to someone here I trust and they can tell you whether it's a place?

I understand that but you might also not want to say the name of the company cuz you made it up.

I offered to tell a third party. That would solve both our issues.

who is the third party?

You want a skeptic, no doubt?

originally posted by: TeaAndStrumpets
What we have with the "Phoenix Lights" were sightings that started around sunset, continued on up through astronomical twilight, and then well into the night. Even after twilight -- heck, all night really --

And most if not all witnesses from that one area said the craft, with its distinct "carpenter's square" edges, was only a few hundred feet above them.

Apologies for snipping the above, I don't believe I have taken it out of context but you are mistaken in your timeline of sightings. First sightings were approx 7:30 to 8:30, no more than 20 mins from any one observer, consistent with the distance and line of sight for a formation of planes.

Second sightings were approx 10pm from memory, max 10 minutes. If you have any sources that state otherwise please link.

You are also mistaken in what the witnesses reported - the high majority reported what was consistent with a formation of planes at high altitudes.

It does depend what source you use for the witness reports as some sites will obviously cherry pick depending on their disposition but if you take a look at all sources available and run your own sanity checks you should see some patterns develop. One of those patterns is definitely that the more "interesting" reports gain the greatest bandwidth - so you have to ask whether that is another phenomenon at play here, cause and effect.

a reply to: chunder

I can't show a documented case of planes causing people to describe a massive low flying object - unless Phoenix counts - however the interweb is strewn with supposedly structured flying craft that have turned out to be planes, skydivers, satellites, fireballs, starts, clouds, lanterns, car headlights and even boats.

True. There is no doubt that people can see illusory contours and get caught up in all manner of UFO disease. No argument here.

It is well documented how open memory is to being suggestive and how individuals can get caught up in group themes.

Why yes it is. We could add mass hysteria as an extreme example of group dynamics.

Maybe atmospheric conditions contributed, the flares added further confusion as did media coverage or it was other reasons but the earlier reports were all consistent and didn't mention this huge craft with surface detail

Maybe. Certainly a lot of variables to consider where we could probably come up with a variety of interesting possible scenarios. I just don't think there is enough here to come up with anything definite.

originally posted by: chunder

Go back and take another look at the witness testimony - try the NUFORC site for that night and particularly the reports submitted within a reasonable timeframe.

You will find that a high majority of reports are very consistent with a formation of planes. Jet engines were heard in one instance and planes were identified ny telescope and binocular on at least 3 occasions....

Some witnesses reported an aircraft flying around at a higher altitude, and said they could both see and hear that aircraft while they were watching the 'UFO' float over their houses. That seems to have been mentioned from the beginning, by some of the earliest witnesses, and it obviously complicates any effort to dismiss the whole event as airplanes in formation. Really, it's not like all other air traffic just stops when a UFO comes to town. And I don't mean that sarcastically; just pointing out that it's pretty much inevitable that the topic is going to be messy.

a reply to: draknoir2
You actually have a job?

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: HorusChrist
I was watching a documentary about the phoenix lights on Netflix. Why do all the witnesses have to have pony tails? It's like with the ancient aliens guy with crazy hair. If you want to be taken seriously, get a hair cut, shave, put on a suit. I have to suspect it is done on purpose tho to discredit ufologists and make them all look liked burnt out hippies.

I think it's an AZ thang.

that's another problematic thing, it may be unfair and politically incorrect, but it's so hot in Arizona, people get their mind fried and see things. Just makes them a little less trustworthy. This is no offense to anyone in Arizona. If I get proven wrong because pure proof of that v shaped craft comes out, I'd be glad to admit it.

I started working here the year after the Phoenix lights event. I did a lot of business with a subcontractor in Phoenix. During one phone conversation I mentioned it to the head of engineering there and his response was pretty level-headed and matter of fact. There was no doubt in his mind something weird was going on. This was not something that was reported regularly, or at all on this scale. Whatever the explanation(s) I wouldn't chalk it up to Arizonan wackiness.

that could just mean the head of engineering had lost his mind too. I imagine you can't say what that company was?

It was a small electronic subcontractor that made circuit board subassemblies for me. It's just a personal anecdote, not top secret Lockheed Martin whistleblower testimony.

right but if you could say the name I could google it and see if they are a legit company or kooks.

I could.

But seeing as I don't know you're not a kook who would harass them with calls... well, you get the picture.

Your registration date and post history would indicate that would be unwise. How about I give it to someone here I trust and they can tell you whether it's a place?

I understand that but you might also not want to say the name of the company cuz you made it up.

I offered to tell a third party. That would solve both our issues.

who is the third party?

You want a skeptic, no doubt?

Forget it I am not trying to say you're a liar or anything and even in the end it wouldn't prove anything 100%. I'm just looking for evidence of this v shaped craf and with UFOs it always seems like there is someone saying they saw something but no one with proof.

originally posted by: chunder
Apologies for snipping the above, I don't believe I have taken it out of context but you are mistaken in your timeline of sightings. First sightings were approx 7:30 to 8:30... Second sightings were approx 10pm from memory, max 10 minutes. If you have any sources that state otherwise please link.

It's all good.... Snipping is necessary sometimes.

But anyway, I agree completely with your times. Is that not astronomical twilight? It extends 'til well after sunset, and there's still some natural light in the sky then. (In addition to the city lights.) I'm certain that I've heard witnesses describing their sighting as happening at dusk or twilight, just before dark. Looking back at my post, I see that I typed "around sunset," which may be a little misleading. My apologies. The point of that whole section, though, was to show that the sky was not as dark as some people seem to be imagining.

You are also mistaken in what the witnesses reported - the high majority reported what was consistent with a formation of planes at high altitudes. It does depend what source you use for the witness reports as some sites will obviously cherry pick depending on their disposition....

It's not that I'm "mistaken" about what the witnesses reported. It's all right there for us all to see. It's more likely that you and I are coming at it from different angles, with different assumptions, and therefore give greater weight to different witnesses. I can live with that.

...but if you take a look at all sources available and run your own sanity checks....

Okay, so this is where I said "ohhhhh... I think I get where he's coming from now." It sounds like you think it's "insane" that a vehicle built by a non-human intelligence might be traveling through our skies?

Again, fair enough.

I don't think that's insane. Not in the slightest. And the idea is becoming less and less insane all the time. We put our own "UFOs" on something like 10 other major astronomical bodies less than 100 years after our first powered flight. Pretty impressive. Yes, interstellar distances are much, much greater... but on the other hand, so is the timescale. The temporal scale matches the spatial scale quite well. (Really, how could it possibly be otherwise?) It's just that we're not used to thinking in terms of thousands or millions of years. Anyway, several mathematicians have published papers saying (and Fermi said it himself) that if there is other intelligent life out there, it should've arrived here by now....

To me, it'd be more insane if there weren't probes from other places doing some nosing around down here. Look at what an interesting time it is for our species. So this would be the time to do it, too.

...you should see some patterns develop. One of those patterns is definitely that the more "interesting" reports gain the greatest bandwidth - so you have to ask whether that is another phenomenon at play here, cause and effect.

Sorry, but it's starting to sound to me like you might be coming at it from the angle of "I know UFOs can't be real, so there's got to be something else going on. Must be... selective reporting and mass hysteria."

Why not give more weight to the witnesses who were closest to the object, the most geographically clustered... the ones who appear to also be the most consistent? It seems to me that a person running proper "sanity checks," as you call them, would do that. I guess reasonable people can disagree though. And, of course, in this instance, accepting what those witnesses said would mean the "aircraft in formation" hypothesis becomes untenable.

Back to the selective reporting / mass hysteria thing -- that is what you were getting at, no? -- where are all these UFO reports that have been generated by mass hysteria? There must be a ton of them, given how often it's cited as the stimulus for a sighting. People like Hynek looked in earnest for those incidents, expecting to find many, but were instead surprised by how relatively few they came across. I think the same kind of thing could be said about the Battelle report (BB Special Report 14), and the Condon Report, but I haven't read those sections recently. That was my honest impression, anyway, that mass hysteria UFO reporting really is much more rare than some skeptics would have us believe.

originally posted by: TeaAndStrumpets
......
Why not give more weight to the witnesses who were closest to the object, the most geographically clustered... the ones who appear to also be the most consistent? It seems to me that a person running proper "sanity checks," as you call them, would do that. I guess reasonable people can disagree though. And, of course, in this instance, accepting what those witnesses said would mean the "aircraft in formation" hypothesis becomes untenable.

Once again, you are assuming -- the actual distance of the lights -- something that you really haven't proven, in order to then look like you've proved it.

To me, it'd be more insane if there weren't probes from other places doing some nosing around down here. Look at what an interesting time it is for our species. So this would be the time to do it, too.

No argument, and there's no way to disprove this, since any technology able to physically access our environment would presumably be complettely capable of evading human detection -- which might be what an entity you posturlate WOULD do, if it were here for the reasonable motives you suggest. So I think your argument -- they OUGHT to be here therefore what we are seeing can reasonably be interpreted as their being here -- is tautological, or what we used to say more earthily in Mission Control, 'a self-eating watermelon.'