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USGS slams study's claim of 99.9% chance of large L.A. earthquake

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posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 07:49 PM
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The U.S. Geological Survey is raising serious doubts about a recent study that calculates a 99.9% chance of a large earthquake in the Los Angeles area in the next three years.

The USGS took the rare step of issuing a statement raising questions about the study, recently published in the journal Earth and Space Science and coauthored by a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

“I have serious doubts that the conclusions of the paper are supported by the analysis that's presented there,” Robert Graves, a USGS seismologist and Southern California coordinator for earthquake hazards, said in an interview Wednesday. The study lists Graves as a consultant who helped with calculations for the study, but Graves says he has deep concerns about the study.

The USGS said in a statement that the study's forecast "has not yet been examined by the long-established committees that evaluate earthquake forecasts and predictions made by scientists."
www.latimes.com...

For folks living on the West Coast but actually all those who live in the so-called ring of fire that could suffer damages from Tsunamis , I don't know who to go with for here we have two agencies with opposing views, yes we should always be prepared, but should folks uproot their lives or say put.
edit on 23-10-2015 by Spider879 because: (no reason given)




posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 07:56 PM
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a reply to: Spider879

i choose the side that says its bunk.



posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 08:26 PM
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There is lots of new data and evidence that it is mind blowing what they have discovered. Judging by markers from the past we are overdue by a longshot, even Michio Kaku was talking about it the other day so I wouldn't say its all bunk.



posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 08:39 PM
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CA is an overpriced desert anyway...moving solves both problems



posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 08:51 PM
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From Source:


“The 99.9% number -- I don’t know the method that was used to derive that. But basically, that's saying that’s going to happen. And that level of certainty, to my knowledge, is just not attainable. We can never be that certain.”

The probability used by the USGS for such a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake in this area over the next three years is 85%, Graves said.


99%........85%........regardless, it's coming, and I prefer the former - let's get this over with so we can move on to the next doom porn.




posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 09:15 PM
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When ever they get nervous and say its wrong the prediction its actually true.

edit on 7/30/2012 by dreamfox1 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 09:26 PM
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originally posted by: Foderalover
There is lots of new data and evidence that it is mind blowing what they have discovered. Judging by markers from the past we are overdue by a longshot, even Michio Kaku was talking about it the other day so I wouldn't say its all bunk.


Although I do like Michio Kaku, the fact is he's the Carl Sagan of our time, a scientific gad fly butting into every scientific controversy there is. He is a theoretical physicist. That's where his PhD comes from. His academic writings are on string theory and quantum mechanics.

What does any of that have to do with earthquake predictions and seismology?



posted on Oct, 23 2015 @ 09:44 PM
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originally posted by: autopat51
a reply to: Spider879

i choose the side that says its bunk.



Having lived on the west cost for all most 25 years, bunk it is not. Me and my team predicted the japan quake of 2011 within a 2 day time frame on a whim after reviewing tectonic swarm quake data and plate weight redistribution from such over a 3 month review of data.

The threat is real, and Id be more inclined to look off the coast of Washington than California, although I hate California and would rather see LA slip into the sea before Seattle.



posted on Oct, 24 2015 @ 12:10 AM
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I no longer live in a tectonically unstable part of the planet because I saw first hand the the devastation caused by several earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. I moved away from oceans that that brought storms when water temperature variation could bring storms to destroy my life, and purposely moved away from forests that could burn away everything I worked for.

I'll never be safe because I can't predict when the next rock will fall into the gravity well of our planet, but I have done what I can to not be in a place on Earth that has something like Mt. Rainier as the view from my back yard. I don't think I'm paranoid, but probably prudent. Things like the Whittier Narrows earthquake and Mt. St. Helens blast were a wake up call, but the Yuan de Fuca subduction data was enough to make me move to a more stable region.

Living in the L.A. basin and surrounding region is like sitting on a time bomb and not knowing what the clock says. It will happen, that is something we can't deny. When it will happen, is something we can guess about and dispute. If it's in your lifetime, sucks to be you, or if it happens 200 years from now, sucks to be them.

The only thing we know for sure is that it will happen, and we have no way of predicting it.
edit on 24/10/2015 by anxietydisorder because: Still can't spell even with a spell checker.



posted on Oct, 24 2015 @ 02:42 PM
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a reply to: Spider879

Hi spider,

Little to no chance of a tsunami from a so cal earthquake, these faults are strike slip? faults and the movement is horizontal, unlike the Japanese and indonesain earthquakes which are subduction faults, they have vertical movements.
The subduction zone here is a hundred miles inland and under about 15 miles of sierra Nevada granite.
During the landers quake of the nineties the san Gabriel mountains went up a couple of feet.

strike slip faults of socal
But the Cascadia subduction zone, off the coast of Washington, ahs and will again produce tsunamis, the last one was in the 1700's and was catalogued by the Japanese as a 2 meter wave by the time it hit japan.



posted on Oct, 24 2015 @ 02:50 PM
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New studies show that the fault lines are being reinforced by a combination of drought and warming temperatures.

They cite faith and prayers as being the sole cause for the recent spike in fault line strength.












yes I made that up



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