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The U.S. Geological Survey is raising serious doubts about a recent study that calculates a 99.9% chance of a large earthquake in the Los Angeles area in the next three years.
The USGS took the rare step of issuing a statement raising questions about the study, recently published in the journal Earth and Space Science and coauthored by a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
“I have serious doubts that the conclusions of the paper are supported by the analysis that's presented there,” Robert Graves, a USGS seismologist and Southern California coordinator for earthquake hazards, said in an interview Wednesday. The study lists Graves as a consultant who helped with calculations for the study, but Graves says he has deep concerns about the study.
The USGS said in a statement that the study's forecast "has not yet been examined by the long-established committees that evaluate earthquake forecasts and predictions made by scientists."
“The 99.9% number -- I don’t know the method that was used to derive that. But basically, that's saying that’s going to happen. And that level of certainty, to my knowledge, is just not attainable. We can never be that certain.”
The probability used by the USGS for such a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake in this area over the next three years is 85%, Graves said.
originally posted by: Foderalover
There is lots of new data and evidence that it is mind blowing what they have discovered. Judging by markers from the past we are overdue by a longshot, even Michio Kaku was talking about it the other day so I wouldn't say its all bunk.