posted on Jan, 7 2005 @ 12:44 PM
Guess it would be hard to track down an exact figure. Here is one point of view on the 100 000 figure, and how it was determined. The link is, but
I've reproduced the whole thing below without editing.
100,000 Dead—or 8,000
How many Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the war?
By Fred Kaplan
Posted Friday, Oct. 29, 2004, at 3:49 PM PT
The authors of a peer-reviewed study, conducted by a survey team from Johns Hopkins University, claim that about 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died as
a result of the war. Yet a close look at the actual study, published online today by the British medical journal the Lancet, reveals that this number
is so loose as to be meaningless.
The report's authors derive this figure by estimating how many Iraqis died in a 14-month period before the U.S. invasion, conducting surveys on how
many died in a similar period after the invasion began (more on those surveys later), and subtracting the difference. That difference—the number of
"extra" deaths in the post-invasion period—signifies the war's toll. That number is 98,000. But read the passage that cites the calculation more
We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during the post-war period.
Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you,
I'll spell it out in plain English—which, disturbingly, the study never does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused
deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in plain language—98,000—is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast
This isn't an estimate. It's a dart board.