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Hezbollah, the Syria-Iraq pressure cooker and future conflict with Israel

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posted on Oct, 21 2015 @ 11:07 AM
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Hezbollah, or army of god, is an Shiite Lebanese paramilitary group backed by Iran and in some extent Syria. It is labeled as a terrorist oganisation by most western nations. It has a firm grip on Lebanese politics,for example army's leadership is voted by and accepted by Hezbollah's government representatives.
Its goal is the destruction of Israel, yet it seems to be moving focus these years. It is extremely active in Syria, with 6-8 thousand soldiers fighting there. On June 2013, the group for the first time deployed combat forces that proved decisive in recapturing the city of al-Qusayr near Lebanon. Thus far +1,000 fighters have been killed. Actual strenght of the organisation is very hard to find. Yet they seem to be very diciplined soldiers. Armed, trained and funded by Iran, they are not the regular jihadi amateurs.

This video of an assault in the city of Zabadani, Syria just a few months ago shows exactly that. Filmed with go-pros, although edited with some extra bullet sounds, it is very real:


This goes hand in hand with a Shiite block that is forming, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and at the head Iran thats funding, training and arming most. In some extent Yemen may be tied to this alliance (also experiercing a civil war). In Iraq a secondary Hezbollah force (Kata'ib Hezbollah, or Hezbolla battalions) has grown exponentially. Last years estimate was at a strenght of 40.000, and I reckon they have only grown in size. A couple years ago there were only a handfull of members. In Syria Iran and hezbollah have helped train the 'National defence forces', which is now estimated at a strenght of 100.000. These Iranese backed forces seem to be mostly comprised of Shiites, yet strangely, christians seem to be joining these forces too, including Hezbollah itself. An explanation might be found in the fear these minorities have for ISIS & colleagues. Also about 7.000 Iranian sdoliers are fighting in Syria, with more coming in each day.

The conflict is heating up and it is heading for a full blown holy war between the sunnis and the sjiites. Iran and Saudi Arabia are truly mortal enemies and I believe this conflict will go on for at least another decade. Especially as I believe that Iran and Hezbollah and even Russia dont want the conflict to end, as they can get good pr by fighting the utter most evil ISIS and such barbarians, gain world-wide support, recruit willing soldiers and have more control over the Syrian goverment. On the other hand Saudi & friends will do everything in their power to swing Syria in their favor. For a pipeline, religious fervour, tactical decisions? The great unkown factor in this conflict is how other Sunni countries will react. The USA is also a questionmark, perhaps we will know more after the next elections. Its certainly a game changer if fully active. And lets not forget the Kurds. A part of whom also just happen to live in Iran... ''ending with Iran''

Homebase of Hezbollah, Lebanon is facing Increased sectarian violence and political instability in Lebanon due to spillover from the Syrian civil war. Note to all. this country harbours over 1 million refugees. Yet when this conflict might end, Israel may face a serious threat, much greater than before. Hezbollah made it very clear it wants to liberate the palestinian people from Israel. Palestinian based Hamas also has links both Iran and Hezbollah.
This year 2 israeli soldiers have been killed and 7 wounded in an Hezbollah ambush. An enormous bloc stretching from lebanon to Iran with massive numbers of loyal veteran soldiers, equiped with modern weaponry and possibly backed by Russian and even Chinese airforces are probably the stuff of nightmares of many Saudis and Israelis and western leaders... and the sunnis living there are in for some dire times, being forced to either support a Shiite goverment or join the rebels. I think most of us know what those rebels stand for.

Still those days may be very far away, but conflicts in Syria and Iraq are the perfect opportunity for shiite forces to grow and strenghten. Did they make the best of a dire situation, or was this the plan al along? Does the USA have benefit of this? As they installed a shiite goverment in Iraq when they left... They could have easily forseen that Iran will gain more influence over the region. The largest military and intelligence of the world could not have overseen this IMO. Any thoughts?

edit on 21-10-2015 by DeusImperator because: (no reason given)

edit on 21-10-2015 by DeusImperator because: (no reason given)




posted on Oct, 21 2015 @ 11:13 AM
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a reply to: DeusImperator


The largest military and intelligence of the world could not have overseen this IMO. Any thoughts?

You mean the US isnt responsible for the current quagmire in the ME?

Tell me another.



posted on Oct, 21 2015 @ 11:17 AM
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a reply to: intrptr
Though the question is, what does the US gain by letting the Shiites and especially Iran strenghten their position?
I think people underestimate the US goverment, yes they #ed up the region, but perhaps it has been done intentionally, with a bigger endgame. ''never let a good conflict go to waste''

edit on 21-10-2015 by DeusImperator because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 21 2015 @ 11:24 AM
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These Iranese backed forces seem to be mostly comprised of Shiites, yet strangely, christians seem to be joining these forces too, including Hezbollah itself.

Why should this be strange? Christians fight for their homes just as much as any other group.



posted on Oct, 21 2015 @ 11:59 AM
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a reply to: buster2010

The OP didn't say "strange". he merely pointed out the facts as he sees them.

You seem to have an overriding compulsion to change the threads' subject as fast as possible.....




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