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originally posted by: Trillium
From itelescope.net
Always use the latest possible orbital elements and ephemeris. Note that at the moment the JPL and MPEC ephemeris do not converge between the 29th and 1st Nov, reflecting how current orbital uncertainties feed into their orbit models, you you will need to keep checking until they substantially converge.
JPL ephemeris for astronomical twilight 31st 06 10 13.22 +32 21 01.1
MPEC ephemeris for astronomical twilight 31st 05 44 46.8 +26 28 06
Now a pretty big difference ???? why
originally posted by: wildespace
JPL page has now appeared: ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
Despite the condition code 9, I'm certain that the asteroid will pass safely past both Earth and the Moon. You will need a telescope to even spot it.
originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: UnBreakable
I do remember all the people who laughed at the Sept. 23 asteroid prediction. It was always, always a real long shot, but considering how short the notice is on this, it was never exactly something you could laugh at as an absolute impossibility either.
Is this going to do anything? Almost certainly not, but it carries a slender risk, and we're learning about it only about 15 days before its window of possibility.
originally posted by: Mogget
Any object in the size range of 210-650 metres would do a LOT more than wipe out a single city.
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 8.20 x 10^19 Joules = 1.96 x 10^4 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 2.2 x 10^5years
Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 65600 meters = 215000 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 34.2 km/s = 21.2 miles/s
The impact energy is 7.82 x 10^19 Joules = 1.87 x 10^4MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 1.02 km by 0.724 km
Crater Dimensions:
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.
Transient Crater Diameter: 7.58 km ( = 4.71 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 2.68 km ( = 1.67 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 9.93 km ( = 6.16 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 591 meters ( = 1940 feet )
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.492 km3 = 0.118 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 10.9 meters ( = 35.7 feet ).
originally posted by: Trillium
Ok found this on Face book interesting
does not look too close so far
2015 TB145 Orbit
Better then mine attempt
originally posted by: Mogget
Any object in the size range of 210-650 metres would do a LOT more than wipe out a single city.
originally posted by: PapagiorgioCZ
a reply to: Trillium
There's a possible connection with all the recent blue fireballs. Scary how it was underreported