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An impressive coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in coronagraph imagery today following a large prominence eruption off the west limb. The widescale plasma cloud does not appear to have an Earth directed component due to its non geoeffective positioning. Had this been directed towards Earth, major geomagnetic storming would have been likely. More updates to follow if necessary. Image below by LASCO C2.
UPDATE: A minor geomagnetic storm watch was added beginning on October 2nd. Although the CME mentioned above was clearly directed mostly to the west, there is still the possibility of a glancing blow impact to our geomagnetic field. More updates in the days ahead.
A CME was first observed from the WSW limb in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph
imagery at 01/0724 UTC. Initial analysis of this event indicates it is
likely off the Sun-Earth line and not expected to be geoeffective.
Meanwhile analysis continues regarding the CME events from 30 Sep.
Multiple model runs were submitted and at least a few of the returned
products indicate a possible, partial Earth-directed event. Other model
returns indicate a glancing blow and even near-miss events. Confidence
factor amongst these results is not high, however, it seems probable
that at least a glancing blow is likely and will be reflected in the
geomagnetic activity forecast.
Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flare activity likely on days one and two (02-03 Oct)
and a chance for X-class (R3, Strong or greater) flares on day one,
decreasing to a slight chance on day two due to the flare potential and
location of Region 2422. There is a chance for M-class activity and
slight chance for X-class flares on day three (4 Oct) as Region 2422
undergoes decay and the eastern-most portion of the region rotates to
and beyond the limb.
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The unsettled and
active periods were likely in response to the enhanced total magnetic
field strength and prolonged periods of -Bz component.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with likely periods of minor storming (G1, Minor) due to the enhanced
and disturbed space environment, along with possible CIR and CH HSS
effects on day one (2 Oct). The geomagnetic field is expected to remain
at unsettled to active levels into day two (3 Oct), with a likely period
of minor (G1) storming late in the day due to possible arrival of a CME
from the 30 Sep events. Conditions are likely to continue at unsettled
to minor (G1) storming levels one day three (4 Oct) due to CME effects.
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
G1-Minor Geomagnetic storm conditions are forecast for 02-04 October due to the combination of a coronal hole high speed stream and possible arrival of multiple CMEs from 30 Sep.