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Absence of Global Warming 'may be set to continue' – UK Met Office. Or it may not.

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posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 05:52 AM
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OK, time for another thread that shows the globe is not warming. Every now and then these articles come up on embarrasing studies that show the globe is not warming. Within a few hours the mass media shout it down and drown it in why the the world is warming reports. This one is from the home of climategate, the met office, the same governemnt weather agency that a few months ago predicted we could be in for a mini ice age - but then it said it never did.


The current warm phase is now 20 years long and historical precedent suggests a return to relatively cool conditions could occur within a few years ... Observational and model estimates further suggest AMO shifts have an effect on global mean near-surface temperatures of about 0.1°C. A rapid AMO decline could therefore maintain the current slowdown in global warming ...

Source

Can't wait to see all the back pedaling and avalanching over the top of this story over the next few days.
edit on 14/9/15 by Cinrad because: (no reason given)


 



edit on 14/9/2015 by ArMaP because: Mod Edit: All Caps – Please Review This Link.




posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 05:55 AM
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a reply to: Cinrad



The current warm phase is now 20 years long and historical precedent suggests a return to relatively cool conditions could occur within a few years

Already is here in Georgia , USA



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:00 AM
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a reply to: Gothmog

We just had the coldest winter in 32 years, it sucked. I am betting on mini ice age myself. This means colder and drier, just like this last winter.
edit on 14/9/15 by Cinrad because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:03 AM
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originally posted by: Cinrad
a reply to: Gothmog

We just had the coldest winter in 32 years, it sucked. I am betting on mini ice age myself. This means colder and drier, just like this last winter.


Yeah , didnt want to say anything, but over those "20 years" we have had more ice , snow, and cooler summers. This summer was a hot one as it should be. And actually , we are a week early with the cooling off. Usually around Sept 22nd or so.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:06 AM
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a reply to: Cinrad

I"m still amazed that people think Global Warming actually means the world is just 'warming' all together, all at the same time.



This about sums up what people who rail against climate change believe. They don't understand the science, don't care to learn apparently, so they use nonsensical stories and sources to prove their point.

Which is wrong.

The Earth is suffering from CLIMATE CHANGE. This means it can be colder or warmer. It means that we are to experience more SEVERE weather be it hot or cold. Which we have been, increasingly, over the last 20 years.

And like...98% of scientists agree. There were temperate records all over the world in the last 2 years.

2014 was the Hottest Year on Record!

It's not a theory. The reasons WHY are still up for debate sure, but Climate Change is real, and it's happening right now.

~Tenth
edit on 9/14/2015 by tothetenthpower because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:08 AM
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a reply to: Gothmog

To be fair though, the hot part of Summer this year was relatively short lived wasn't it...only a couple of weeks of real heat and the rest of Summer has been pissing down most of the time...felt like Autumn most of Summer to me.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:09 AM
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a reply to: Cinrad


Can't wait to see all the back pedaling and avalanching over the top of this story over the next few days.


No backpedaling required: the article cherry picked the report. Here is its actual conclusion:


While global surface warming slowed from the end of the 20th century, our best estimates of global mean temperature for 2015 are at or near record levels, and this is consistent with climate predictions for similarly high values that we made last year (www.metoffice.gov.uk...). Record or near record temperatures last year and so far this year, along with the expected warming effects of El Niño, mean that decadal temperature trends are likely to increase. Barring a large volcanic eruption or a very sudden return to La Niña or negative AMO conditions which could temporarily cool climate, ten year global average warming rates are likely to return to late 20th century levels within the next two years. Nevertheless, the slowdown in warming is still an active research topic and trends over a longer (15 year) period will take longer to respond.

Further long-term global warming is expected over the coming decades but variations of climate worldwide from year to year or decade to decade will always depend on the subsequent variations in the patterns of climate variability described in this report.


www.metoffice.gov.uk...

Incidentally, because of the nature of its mission, the Met Office uses models that focus on near term weather patterns, not long term global climate models. They are more concerned with the possibility of a storm in the next three days than a potential rise in sea level in the next hundred years. If you bother to read the report, much of the slowdown over the past few years was due to the volcano in Iceland.
edit on 14-9-2015 by DJW001 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:09 AM
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Global warming is the gradual and long term increase in temperature, not all regions of the planet will show the same increases or changes in temperature or rainfall.

Just because there is a slowdown in the warming process or there are regions of the planet that have experienced below average temperature does not invalidate the FACT that the planet is indeed warming and the climate is indeed changing.






'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.'

'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas


edit on 14-9-2015 by muse7 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:17 AM
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a reply to: tothetenthpower

The climate discussion, historically was 'Global warming'..it was always Global warming, never climate change.

That came later, when it was apparent the world wasn't getting warmer, just getting more 'weather' of extremes.

You say though that the real point is climate change, regardless of what the actual cause of that change is...i'd argue that the cause is crucial not incidental.

For years, it was 'Man made Global warming'...then that changed to 'Man made Climate change'...now it's just climate change.

The cause is important. Environmental damage, pollution of land and water is a real consequence of Humanity and can rightly be termed 'Man made'..but, as changes to our climate are a historic fact, changing as it does throughout all of history (the history that is accessible to us) it has become clear 'climate change is a cycle, it always has been cyclic in nature and has nothing whatsoever to do with Humanity, unlike environmental damage, which most certainly is.

The importance comes into the equation when our taxes go through the roof, or our utility bills, motoring costs are crippling the individual family or whole nations are tied up in carbon credits / selling and buying the right to release carbon, all on the backs of the misnomer that climate change is down to us...it isn't and never was.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:23 AM
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a reply to: MysterX


That came later, when it was apparent the world wasn't getting warmer, just getting more 'weather' of extremes.


Our understanding of it evolved because our science got better.


You say though that the real point is climate change, regardless of what the actual cause of that change is...i'd argue that the cause is crucial not incidental.


Oh I agree that it's crucial. I'm just tired of people arguing about it like if you don't believe in Man Made Climate Change, then somehow you don't believe in actual Climate Change.

Hell even the GOP willingly admit there's something screwy going on.


it isn't and never was.


Implying that the massive amounts of pollution we produce couple with our increasingly destructive behavior in regards to natural systems that keep pollution in check, isn't affecting climate is ridiculous.

It may not be the single cause, or the greatest of a multitude of causes, but it is no doubt a cause of Climate Change. There is no way that any person can say that deforestation, plus ocean acidity increases plus dirtying up the atmosphere isn't a cause of climate change.

I don't think taxing ourselves into oblivion is the answer either. But we can take Germany's route and invest heavily in renewable. We can attempt to produce more things that rely on less pollutants.

What we can't do is walk around thinking that 7 + billion of us have absolutely NO affect on our climate, it's just ridiculous.

ETA: to add, I don't think Climate change is even...50% human caused, but we do have an affect.

~Tenth


edit on 9/14/2015 by tothetenthpower because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:31 AM
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originally posted by: Cinrad
OK, time for another thread that shows the globe is not warming. Every now and then these articles come up on embarrasing studies that show the globe is not warming. Within a few hours the mass media shout it down and drown it in why the the world is warming reports. This one is from the home of climategate, the met office, the same governemnt weather agency that a few months ago predicted we could be in for a mini ice age - but then it said it never did.


The current warm phase is now 20 years long and historical precedent suggests a return to relatively cool conditions could occur within a few years ... Observational and model estimates further suggest AMO shifts have an effect on global mean near-surface temperatures of about 0.1°C. A rapid AMO decline could therefore maintain the current slowdown in global warming ...

Source

Can't wait to see all the back pedaling and avalanching over the top of this story over the next few days.

Well this is the usual dumb skeptic approach. The quote you quoted was made up by a skeptic about their interpretation of what is actually going on and then re-stated in a manner as if it comes from the original source.

Utterly DUMB!!!!

FYI : the met office has stated that despite an increase in warming that is now set to accelrate northern Europe may experience cooler and drier summers. This is called weather.

Just because the CLIMATE warms does not mean that every square inch of the planet earth will experience an equal increase in heat. Instead you get a shift in WEATHER patterns.

I have shouted out loud the two words that you skeptics seem to have great difficulty in understanding the difference between. I'm guessing the same number of letters is causing confusion.
edit on 14/9/2015 by yorkshirelad because: mistake



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:35 AM
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a reply to: MysterX


The importance comes into the equation when our taxes go through the roof, or our utility bills, motoring costs are crippling the individual family or whole nations are tied up in carbon credits / selling and buying the right to release carbon, all on the backs of the misnomer that climate change is down to us...it isn't and never was.


As the ocean levels rise and coastal areas are prone to flooding your taxes will skyrocket. Why are we pumping money into trying to save New Orleans? Another big storm and it will be wrecked again. The drought in California? That's costing the state plenty, but at least that's not coming out of your pocket.

Here is the economic argument: the overall global mean temperature has been rising since the "little ice age." There have been cooler periods due to major volcanic eruptions, but the overall trend is clear. This increase in temperature has several causes, some of which have to do with long term astronomical and geophysical factors, and some of them have to do with human activities. There is nothing we can do about the Sun's output, the Earth's orbit, the amount of volcanism, strength of the geomagnetic field, etc.

On the other hand, there are things we can do to control the human contribution, both locally and globally. We know that certain gasses trap heat energy. These can be limited by a number of means. Carbon credit trading is the most acceptable to capitalists. We can reduce the amount of waste heat released into the atmosphere by building more efficient machines. We can reduce local hot spots by increasing the local albedo, eg; painting roads and roofs white to reflect the sunlight.

The bottom line is that it is much, much cheaper to encourage people to take mass transit, provide industry with incentives to be more efficient, and discourage construction in at risk areas than it is to keep bailing New Orleans out, fighting non-stop grass fires, and building massive super-engineering projects to protect New York and San Francisco.
edit on 14-9-2015 by DJW001 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:37 AM
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a reply to: tothetenthpower




I don't think taxing ourselves into oblivion is the answer either. But we can take Germany's route and invest heavily in renewable. We can attempt to produce more things that rely on less pollutants.


That is 100% spot on.

You won't get an argument from me on that one. It's insane imo not to produce the vast majority of our energy needs using renewables.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 06:53 AM
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a reply to: DJW001

I'm not convinced that the effect we're having on the weather patterns on this planet are anything greater than negligible.

BUT..if the few % extra is going to break the camels back, then this single biggest difference we can make to reduce that few % contribution is to ban the commercial meat industry.

LOTS of jobs gone, but livestock is probably the single biggest contributor of GG. Tie in deforestation to make way for livestock and we have a double whammy.



We can reduce local hot spots by increasing the local albedo, eg; painting roads and roofs white to reflect the sunlight.


I've heard this idea before, and if it could work i'd say go for it...why not? But i wonder how exactly that could work since the heat has already entered the atmosphere heating it up, and to reflect it back at street or rooftop level is never going to be able to radiate the unwanted heat back into space, white roads or not.

The light / heat has to be diverted or blocked before it enters and heats the atmosphere. In reality we're talking space based redirection or reflection using gigantic, but thin Solar sails or the like.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 07:08 AM
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a reply to: MysterX


I've heard this idea before, and if it could work i'd say go for it...why not? But i wonder how exactly that could work since the heat has already entered the atmosphere heating it up, and to reflect it back at street or rooftop level is never going to be able to radiate the unwanted heat back into space, white roads or not.


It reflects the heat rather than absorbing it and re-radiating it at a longer and more easily trapped wavelength.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 07:12 AM
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a reply to: DJW001

Well, if it helps why not.

But then i suppose the environmental cost of producing, transporting and painting on that white paint (or whatever material could be used) would offset much of the benefit of doing it in the first place!

I'll stick with space based sun visors instead



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 07:21 AM
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i have read the report and something popped out to me that i have yet to see anyone in the "industry" acknowledge.

"It is well established that trace gases such as carbon dioxide warm our planet through the “greenhouse effect”. These gases are relatively transparent to incoming sunlight, but trap some of the longer-wavelength radiation emitted by the Earth. However, other factors, both natural and man-made, can also change global temperatures. For example, a cooling could be caused by a downturn of the amount of energy received from the sun, or an increase in the sunlight reflected back to space by aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Aerosols increase temporarily after volcanic eruptions, but are also generated by pollution such as sulphur dioxide from factories."

and it go's on to show other examples of how global temps have fallen soon after large volcanic eruptions
due to CO2 and SO2 and particulates this is well known however they also mention factorys right so if particulates in the atmosphire cool it due to reflecting light back into space would the various clean air acts around the world
which reduce particulates actually CAUSE global warming by allowing that light to make it to the surface
so in effect AGW is actually us allowing the earth to warm to where it should be in the first place?

just a thought

edit on 14/9/15 by ShayneJUK because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 07:34 AM
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a reply to: ShayneJUK

You may have a point, but i think they're talking the lesser of two evils aren't they?

Pollution in the form of airborne particulates may indeed reflect some Solar radiation, reducing natural warming...but also choke and poison the hell out of us and other life...so a win / lose situation really.

Many of the theories surrounding so-called chemtrails suggests more or less the same thing...that aerosols sprayed high in the atmosphere are intended as geoengineering reflecting some of the Solar radiation back into space before it has a chance to heat our atmosphere too much...whether that is what is going on, i don't know...but if it were for that reason, it wouldn't surprise me.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 07:36 AM
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a reply to: tothetenthpower




And like...98% of scientists agree.


wasn't it 97 %...last time I checked. I guess 1 more scientist switched sides.



posted on Sep, 14 2015 @ 07:44 AM
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originally posted by: MysterX
a reply to: tothetenthpower

The climate discussion, historically was 'Global warming'..it was always Global warming, never climate change.

That came later, when it was apparent the world wasn't getting warmer, just getting more 'weather' of extremes.

You say though that the real point is climate change, regardless of what the actual cause of that change is...i'd argue that the cause is crucial not incidental.

For years, it was 'Man made Global warming'...then that changed to 'Man made Climate change'...now it's just climate change.

The cause is important. Environmental damage, pollution of land and water is a real consequence of Humanity and can rightly be termed 'Man made'..but, as changes to our climate are a historic fact, changing as it does throughout all of history (the history that is accessible to us) it has become clear 'climate change is a cycle, it always has been cyclic in nature and has nothing whatsoever to do with Humanity, unlike environmental damage, which most certainly is.

The importance comes into the equation when our taxes go through the roof, or our utility bills, motoring costs are crippling the individual family or whole nations are tied up in carbon credits / selling and buying the right to release carbon, all on the backs of the misnomer that climate change is down to us...it isn't and never was.



And don't forget, that we just don't understand science if we don't agree....

Even though it is obvious I know a great deal about science, more so in many more categories of Science than most of the AGW supporters on this forum for sure!!!

Yet we are just science deniers, even though AGW goes against the entire scientific method at all times.

It automatically assumes man is at fault, and that we can stop warming cooling cycles that have existed far longer than we have....

But let's just ignore the fact and ice age ending means the glaciers necessarily melt.... " but the glaciers are melting!!! "

Ya they should!!

Or the always popular " but the warming has never happened this fast!! "

But that can't be proven, because there are no accurate temp records for anything but modern times.

And without accurate temp data you can't measure tenth of a degree by any other method period.

Of course this all ignores the fact, the warming has stopped for well over 2 decades now, in complete defiance of their " climate models" that have always been wrong in every long term prediction.

There isn't even a scientific basis to form a out of control warming conclusion from.

Because it has never happened, not even when co2 was in the thousands.

So scientifically, how they even make this absurd claim is beyond me.....

Because all the actual evidence says new co2 is good for life on this planet.

In fact thecarbon we ate releasing was already in the atmosphere during the greatest abundance of life in the planets history!!

So how is AGW in any way based on science and not faith?

Because I don't see the science, I see scams, bs, lies, and worst off by the standards of Science assumptions....

Nothing more



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