Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb

originally posted by: cavtrooper7
If GLOBAL WARMING occurs I hope it happens soon....
www.pbs.org...

you do realize that there is a world outside your own town, right?....what next, that senator who held up a snowball while on the floor of the senate chamber, and said "what warming"?....or, maybe go to Saudi Arabia, pull into a gas station, and pay 16 American cents a litre, and then ask "what high gas prices"?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Pluginn

As Peter said we need a new kind of Manhattan project. Finding a way to get co2 out of the atmosphere, so an invention to make this possible which needs lot of funding and research.

That would be nice but there is no single solution. It is a highly complex problem.

However, since the OP does not believe that human activity is the cause of the warming trend, I'm curious to find out what solutions she has to offer.

This is normal when you look back on history. No need to wonder the cause as the cause is really of no importance. We cannot change mother nature. The Sun has a lot to do with our weather and climate.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The OP never once said man has nothing to do with the cause.

You are so worried about the cause while I'm over the debate ... get on with doing something and stop arguing already. Instead of worrying about looking smart act it.
We cannot change mother nature this is why I suggest MOVING to higher ground while you suggest calling representatives.

Calling wont do any good. We have been over this already Phage.

You state you have children and want a better future for them yet you are only offering a phone call for a solution?

If you spent time on the video or the PDF instead of spending your time assuming and trying to discredit me we may actually get somewhere.

a reply to: MamaJ

You are obviously passionate and want to make a change. The problem is (in my eyes) that it would be impossible to come up with a sound scientific solution to a global problem unless we understand exactly HOW and WHY the problem is occurring. It pisses me off when people say things like "the debate is over" on climate change. This is an extremely complex problem to solve, and while I'm sure it gets tiring to tell people the same facts over and over, it is still imperative to listen to the opposition (no matter how ignorant it might sound) and give facts that back up your claim. There could be nuggets of truth buried in the nay-sayers ideas.

My primary reason for being sceptical of (not the same as denying) the official story is the fact that they are pushing the whole "the debate is over" rhetoric. To me, that's the same as saying "don't investigate this any further or postulate different theories because you might discover that the official story is bunk." I think that if we are going to find a solution to the global warming problem (if there even is one), then there needs to be a sanctuary somewhere where intelligent, educated sceptics can take the floor without being interrupted every time they say something that doesn't fit with what other people BELIEVE is happening. Of course, facts would need to be presented as well to back up the theories. Only then would we have a chance of coming up with a reasonable solution.

The other side of the problem is that if there were to be a reasonable solution, it would be another matter to actually get people to follow it, especially on a global level. Look at how people in the United States are being taxed for solar power to protect the energy companies, even after all the global warming rhetoric spouted by Obama. It's debatable if the majority of Americans switching to solar power in their homes would even put a dent in stopping global warming, but even still, Americans who have the resources and CHOOSE to switch to solar power are being financially punished instead of rewarded. I honestly wonder if TPTB have any intention of stopping ANY environmental disaster that may occur, but they certainly love to pretend they care.

So, if you want to do something about global warming (and I really hope you do since you seem very passionate about it), these are the challenges you need to overcome. First, don't "convert" sceptics, but rather encourage scepticism and create a forum for fair scientific hearings. This will bring a LOT of sceptics on board, who aren't opposed to helping, but rather don't like how their intelligence is questioned every time they bring up a point. Second, there will need to be a serious assessment of the murky waters of the political and sociological ocean and come up with a solution that takes into account both the inherent laziness of people and the corruption and apathy in the government.

I still stand by what I said on page one.

Nobody knows much at all about the 'Big Picture' but human nature/psychology dictates we cannot have that. Even ordinary people with no real qualifications on the subject who just trawl the internet for YouTube vids that give their doom porn lust instant gratification believe they 'know' whats going on globally. Even more so than qualified scientists. And the qualified scientist seem to disagree with one another. Then these same delusional ordinary individuals call for 'action' over and above anything anybody else suggest such as rallying? Protests? Refusing to consume? Demanding alternatives? What? You don't even know what.

It's just a case of ""I've found a vid and I agree with it. I'll even expand the theory based on it with misinformation like made up hypothetical maps from a totally different hypothetical situation (!? Lol)
and proclaim everyone else who doesn't agree with my hyperbole as ignorant and/or responsible for the prophesied doom I am personally pedalling".

Chill out and enjoy your life. Change is inevitabke. Man , even in their billions, cannot change the inevitable.

Sorry for the delay in reply Mamma but I was too busy playing in the park all day. The weather was nice and warm see and the kids are still off on holiday.

Bringing the high heat to the upper inside corner
August 19, 2015
Surface melting was significantly more frequent and more extensive than average on the Greenland Ice Sheet in July, especially around the northwestern coast. July also saw high air pressure over the entire island and warmer-than-average temperatures in the northwest. This warmer summertime pattern, combined with lower winter snowfall patterns, resulted in a large mass loss from the ice sheet for the summer to date.

nsidc.org...

And also from the same link above...

The sharp increase in surface melt extent (and estimated melt runoff) in July resulted in large ice mass loss rates. Although 2015 is not at satellite-era record levels (set in 2012), there was a large rate of loss overall. A combination of low snowfall in the past winter season and warm temperatures with extensive melting resulted in a large loss of ice from the ice sheet in the northwest. Some areas in the southern one-third of the ice sheet have less loss than average. Greenland typically loses mass due to melt runoff through the summer, although in recent years both low snow and runoff, and an increase in glacier outflow (not shown here) have combined to significantly shrink the thickness of the ice sheet, contributing to sea level rise.

It isn't just humans being affected. There is a huge problem here and we to sit up and take notice. This is what the OP said and I am saying it again. SIT UP! Let's get together as a collective and do something. We can no longer wait on the officials nor do we have time to call on them and wait... tick tock, tick tock. Time is running out.

Below is from an article 3 days ago... 35000 walruses? We are seeing sea life and creatures from land migrate while we sit around and worry about Trump. lol GEEEEZ!

The extreme loss of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is forcing thousands of walruses to crowd ashore on a remote barrier island off Alaska, and threatening their survival.

www.theguardian.com...

Melted within 15 years? I don't think we have that much time. They are being generous as to not scare the general public imo.

Sea ice cover in the winter months fell to a new low this year because of climate change and abnormal weather patterns.

Some scientists believe the Arctic could be entirely ice-free in the summer months by the 2030s – with profound effects for local indigenous communities that rely on the ice, as well as wildlife that depend on extreme conditions.

a reply to: hololeap

I agree with all you said except this below.

Also, Instead of saying Global Warming or Climate Change we should now call it Global WARNING! haha.. I laugh but I am so serious.

The HOW and WHY however is so debatable and while we debate the sea is warming and rising at a rate scientists didn't see coming ( or the ones people listened to) not even 5 years ago we are losing precious time.

We can check in daily to observe the melting and WE SHOULD. We shouldn't wait to be told RUN to higher ground.

This is a snowball effect, Im afraid. It is changing the life as we know it globally... and quickly.

Change always begins with one.

a reply to: HumberWarrior

Well I began the thread in the middle of the night so I wasn't up for running at the park. lol

You can put the cart before the horse and or jump ship. This is your choice.

Don't pay attention the info in the OP or research yourself. Everyone seems to have an opinion about the video without even watching it or reading any material within the last 6 months regarding such issue presented.

My choice however is to bring this information forward. It's up to you to discredit me or the info. and not do anything but criticize the messenger.

The info isn't debatable though. We can SEE ICE MELTING... many animals are dead and displaced. Humans will be next. Pay attention to nature around you and maybe you will realize this problem and help your family by at least moving to higher ground.
The climate has always changed and will continue to do so. Doesn't mean sit around and be taken over by drought, floods, famine, and starving to death.

Chill out and enjoy your life. Change is inevitabke. Man , even in their billions, cannot change the inevitable

Why do people assume so much without facts? I am enjoying my life and I enjoy it so much with my kids I want to continue to do so. In order for me to do that I am taking action and protecting them. I still am working and enjoying life. Don't get it twisted. lol

If someone told me the sky is falling I wouldn't believe them until I did my own research. I have had a bad feeling about this issue for years now. I have been paying attention. I am not a follower. With that said.... I felt like telling ATS and then what you do with the info is your choice. SO be it.

The only positive about this situation is we will discover what is under all the Ice.

The Arctic is one of the world's least explored and last wild places

However at some point people need to realize this may displace you and your family. Before displacement though you may have a hard time surviving if survive at all. Really will depend on where you live.

It is hard to exaggerate how dramatic this is. Perhaps not since the felling of America's vast forests in the 19th century, or possibly since the razing of China's and western Europe's great forests a thousand years before that, has the world seen such a spectacular environmental change. The consequences for Arctic ecosystems will be swingeing.

www.economist.com...

Is there a profit to be made when the melting is so dramatic we begin to grow crops and rape the area? YEP!

In the long run the unfrozen north could cause devastation. But, paradoxically, in the meantime no Arctic species will profit from it as much as the one causing it: humans. Disappearing sea ice may spell the end of the last Eskimo cultures, but hardly anyone lives in an igloo these days anyway. And the great melt is going to make a lot of people rich.

Watch our animation of the receding Arctic ice-shelf and the shipping routes it could unlock
As the frozen tundra retreats northwards, large areas of the Arctic will become suitable for agriculture. An increasingly early Arctic spring could increase plant growth by up to 25%. That would allow Greenlanders to grow more than the paltry 100 tonnes of potatoes they manage now. And much more valuable materials will become increasingly accessible. The Arctic is already a big source of minerals, including zinc in Alaska, gold in Canada, iron in Sweden and nickel in Russia, and there is plenty more to mine.

The Arctic also has oil and gas, probably lots. Exploration licences are now being issued across the region, in the United States, Canada, Greenland, Norway and Russia. On April 18th ExxonMobil finalised the terms of a deal with Russia's Rosneft to invest up to $500 billion in developing offshore reserves, including in Russia's Arctic Kara sea. Oil companies do not like to talk about it, but this points to another positive feedback from the melt. Climate change caused by burning fossil fuels will allow more Arctic hydrocarbons to be extracted and burned.

www.economist.com...

Who will exploit the areas and fight over the resources? There will indeed be new trade routes and war may begin over such.

Yet how to reconcile the environmental risks of the melting Arctic with the economic opportunities it will present? The shrinkage of the sea ice is no less a result of human hands than the ploughing of the prairies. It might even turn out as lucrative. But the costs will also be huge. Unique ecosystems, and perhaps many species, will be lost in a tide of environmental change. The cause is global pollution, and the risks it carries are likewise global. The Arctic, no longer distant or inviolable, has emerged, almost overnight, as a powerful symbol of the age of man.

That above makes my conspiracy mind wonder and really go down the rabbit hole however the time spent wondering I could be using the time in better ways.

From the Foreign Affairs site.. this article is from 2012. Do you think our officials are concerned or happy over this loss and climate chaos?

I believe they want it... and want it quick!

The Arctic presents an extraordinary opportunity to rewrite the rules of the game for developing a frontier economy. But the time to start doing so is now, before a Deepwater Horizon–like oil spill stains the Arctic and its appeal. With the Arctic heating up faster than many predicted, it is a matter of not if but when the summer sea ice will be gone and the region will open up to widespread development. If managed correctly, the Arctic could be both a carefully protected environment and a major driver of economic growth -- with enormous benefits for both outsiders and the inhabitants of this prime real estate

www.foreignaffairs.com...

Here is Update 6

"Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 6"

There are a number of reasons why sea ice could fall dramatically over the next few weeks.


First of all, the situation today is in an even worse condition than one might conclude when looking at sea ice extent alone. The way NSIDC calculates extent is by first dividing the satellite image into a grid and then including each cell in extent that has 15% or more ice. So, if a few small and very thin pieces of ice floating in a cell happen to cover 15% of a cell, it is counted in as "sea ice".

There is quite a difference between the sea ice that was 5 meters thick north of Greenland in 2012 and the ice that is present there now. The image on the right shows the north-east corner of Greenland on the bottom left. There is almost no ice north of this point.

Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by the image below that compares sea ice thickness on August 20, 2012 (left) with August 20, 2015 (right), from an earlier pos

arctic-news.blogspot.com...

We haven't even really discussed the issue of Methane yet.

The July data for sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere contain a trendline pointing at a rise of 2°C (3.6°F) before the year 2030. In other words, if this trend continues, the sea surface will be 2°C (3.6°F) warmer in less than 15 years time from now.

Such a temperature rise would be a catastrophe, as there are huge amounts of methane contained in the form of hydrates and free gas in sediments under the Arctic Ocean seafloor. A relatively small temperature rise of part of these sediments could cause a huge abrupt methane eruption, which could in turn trigger further eruptions of methane.

Of course there are people on the other side of the fence saying not to concern yourself, nothing to see here, move along.

Here is one of many recent papers you can find regarding the ice melt as well as methane release.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com...

It boils down to a choice people have to make for themselves and family. What do you believe is going on and what if anything do you want to do about it.

From a peer reviewed paper sited above

4.2. Implications and Conclusions
Sea ice concentrations and terrestrial methane emissions co-vary throughout vast regions of
the Arctic, with the clearest influence of sea ice decline on autumn fluxes, and perhaps to
some extent in spring. We estimate that the remote warming influence connected to sea ice
decline has, compared to the baseline period of 1981-1990, led to a higher release of 1.7 Tg
CH4 yr-1
from the terrestrial Arctic by the years 2005-2010, with an uncertainty range of 0.4–
4.1 Tg CH4 yr
-1
. Due to constraints imposed on our analysis, such as the detrending of timeseries
and fixed extent of the area influenced by sea ice, we consider this estimate to be
modest in size. Since sea ice decline and associated amplified warming on land is expected to
persist, a reasonable projection from our results is that methane emissions from northern
©2015 American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved.
wetlands will continue to increase

And also from the same paper...

Although extending methane flux measurements to the later part of the year can be
logistically, technically and physically demanding, such actions are necessary to improve our
understanding of the effects of sea ice retreat on Arctic greenhouse-gas exchange
[Christensen, 2014], since essential processes may still be underrepresented in the models.
Effective complementary application of field measurements and modeling efforts is
imperative to verify and predict the ways in which sea ice decline affects Arctic greenhouse
gas exchange at distance. The crosscutting nature of such large-scale interactions emphasizes
the need for an integrated analysis of the marine and terrestrial carbon cycle within a rapidly
changing Arctic.

Another paper below.. www.pnas.org...

"Metabolic and trophic interactions modulate methane production by Arctic peat microbiota in response to warming"

Microorganisms are key players in emissions of the greenhouse gas (GHG) methane from anoxic carbon-rich peat soils of the Arctic permafrost region. Although available data and modeling suggest a significant temperature-induced increase of GHG emissions from these regions by the end of this century, the controls of and interactions within the underlying microbial networks are largely unknown. This temperature-gradient study of an Arctic peat soil using integrated omics techniques reveals critical temperatures at which microbial adaptations cause changes in metabolic bottlenecks of anaerobic carbon-degradation pathways. In particular taxonomic shifts within functional guilds at different levels of the carbon degradation cascade enable a fast adaptation of the microbial system resulting in high methane emissions at all temperatures.

Arctic permafrost soils store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC) that could be released into the atmosphere as methane (CH4) in a future warmer climate. How warming affects the complex microbial network decomposing SOC is not understood.

a reply to: jimmyx

Oh yes, I don't HAVE a cellphone to leak my brains into enough to BUY the Global warming narrative being used as a tool to practically tax OXYGEN.
But IF you THINK its real or Humanity CAN change that ...have FUN.

a reply to: cavtrooper7

In regards to your link in above post...

Farmers Almanic isn't all that reliable in my opinion.

One of the comments from the link sums it up for me..

Do you suppose their science is better than the climate change scientists? What if their predictions come to pass? Come on folks, the climate is going to do what it is going to do. Humans have the power of a grain of sand in all the oceans of the world compared to the power of mother nature.

I am not so sure any of us can do anything about it NOW. All we can do now is move to higher ground. Even then, may be affected by the climate itself and not the ocean rising.

Taking note of the ice melting is key for us imo. Watch it and see.

a reply to: MamaJ

The Carbon Tax debacle sums up WHAT it is for, to me.
A money sucking control measure.
I think I need NOT elaborate.

mother nature has an uncanny way of throwing wrenches into the machinery of our ideas.
try as we might, she is always 1 or 2 steps ahead of us.

a reply to: cavtrooper7

Oh it's more than carbon tax. lol

Think about the resources and minerals we will fight over when the ice melts and land is raped by the global politicians. We had a plan implemented years ago for this day and age. They do not care about the major implications on life.

To think this isn't a serious matter, is ignoring facts that can be easily seen and felt.

originally posted by: autopat51
mother nature has an uncanny way of throwing wrenches into the machinery of our ideas.
try as we might, she is always 1 or 2 steps ahead of us.

Oh, so true!

Mother nature can correct herself but she isn't worried about us. lol

a reply to: MamaJ

It wouldn't matter much as we would be at war long before it gets THAT bad over fresh water anyway.
Unless Russia ,Iran and China unify then WAY before that.

THE SUN changed all the solarsytem IS reflecting it,charging ME for driving to work based on my carbon footprints is nothing but a criminal endeavor.
AS if China cares either. WE is also pumping MORE waste into the sky than any other country on the planet.


AND we can get MANY minerals from SLACE as well once we GET off our asses ,get out there to do so.

a reply to: cavtrooper7

Good lord... How in the world are you getting any stars much less so quickly when your post barely makes sense? lol

WEIRD.

You are totally missing the point. You can bring a horse to water but ya cant make him drink. Suit yourself.

DO nothing but complain. I really don't care however the more who are aware the better off we will be. Stay butt hurt over carbon tax and miss the boat when it comes for ya.

Listen to the Russian Dr who has been researching this issue. MAYBE you will get off the carbon tax issue and see the reality that surrounds your closed mind.



The Sun, MAN, GOD, Mother Nature.... All the debating about cause isn't doing us any good. All it is doing is wasting time. While you are crying carbon tax and the sun, the sun... we are seeing a dramatic change.

I mean good GOD! Will everyone please worrying about the cause and recognize the ISSUE IS RAPIDLY GETTING WORSE?

At least make a plan for your family? Or don't..

Its a choice. Make it wisely, I say.

The sea-level rise alone makes it likely that low-lying areas where tens of millions of people live will become uninhabitable by the end of this century. Entire island nations are at risk. Then it will get worse. Even if humanity could bring its greenhouse emissions to a full stop, the gases already in the air will capture heat energy that will work its way gradually deeper into the oceans. The tides will continue to creep higher, century after century. Meanwhile, if the planet warms up a few degrees (which is the most likely scenario unless strong restrictions on emissions are promptly introduced), the forces melting polar ice will become irreversible. Eventually, probably after several thousand years, the Greenland Ice Sheet will be gone. In previous geological ages when the CO2 level in the Earth's atmosphere had reached 400 ppm (the level human emissions are already giving us), much of Antarctica's ice cap too had been gone, raising the sea level tens of meters. Even if nothing happens in Antarctica, the melting of Greenland will put the sea level at least seven meters higher, giving posterity its grandest, but unwelcome, monument of our civilization.(35)

www.aip.org...

a reply to: MamaJ

Hey MamaJ, I can see you're passionate about this. Yes, there are many many reasons why all things are happening the way they are...the bigger picture if you will is not so much about this issue at all. It is a natural process of rebirth and *things* will happen, out with the old in with the new.

Change is imminent. We have tipped the scale back in 2012, and are going through that change. Many issues such as this will only validate what each member on here have known through the back of their mind, that there is something brewing. Yes. mother earth will eventually drop us a big fart (methane) bomb sooner..lol, but that's part of the reason why we are here...

But my advice is to take the necessary steps you need to do to ensure the safety of your family if you will. If you understand, we are conscious or energy beings - we will never cease to exist.

We are just temporarily in this meat suit to experience this exciting times. We will eventually wake up from this, and realize our true selves.

Enjoy the ride and radiate peace and love.

Peace