Aren't there supposed to be More, larger and more dangerous storms this year?

originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: ChesterJohn

Today I learned that the whole world is the East Coast of the US.

That's a nice change. Usually we are told it's the West Coast because it now has the weather patterns climate change gurus expected everyone in the world to be having by now.

a reply to: SlapMonkey

Just because there are variables that we aren't accounting for doesn't mean that the variables we ARE accounting for are irrelevant. There are also variables we aren't accounting for in evolutionary theory, cell theory, any astronomy theory. Heck if it is a theory, there is an unknown variable out there effecting it.

But NONE of that makes the current evidence and variables we DO know about invalid. That is a point that so many science denialists can't seem to get in their head. They seem to think that because the theory is incomplete, that somehow makes it invalid. That isn't true.

originally posted by: ChesterJohn
I recently read that according to Climate Change advocates that there would be an increase in severe storms, Hurricanes and other weather related phenomena. However, we saw less Tornadoes, less storms and now they are predicting less Hurricanes on the East coast.

www.reuters.com...

(Adds quote from forecaster Gerry Bell, details on last major hurricane and Superstorm Sandy) By David Adams May 27 The Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than usual this year due to cooler seas and a strong El Niño effect, the U.S. government weather forecaster said on Wednesday. The official "below-normal" forecast calls for six to 11 tropical storms this year, with three to six reaching hurricane status of 74-mile-per-hour (120 kph) winds, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said at a press conference in New Orleans. There may be as many as two major hurricanes with winds reaching at least 111 miles per hour.

El Nino consist of warmer waters and would in affect be breading ground for Hurricanes seeing they thrive on warm water, yet the prediction is down.

There is a below normal amount predicted for this year hurricane season.

Al Gore and the CC pundits have been telling us that severe weather patterns would emerge if nothing done by 2015 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Yet despite the reduction that has been implemented, which is very minimal, the patterns are lessoning.

Are the CC pundits correct?

Did we lower our emissions enough to reduce the severe storm predictions?

Or is CC science incorrect and as usual the just don't know?

Every prediction Al Gore made was wrong. No ice at the caps. No more snow. Earth warming 11 degrees. Stronger and more frequent hurricanes. Coastal cities under water. But he is a politician so do you really expect any truth from him?

Breaking news, snow in Calgary, now, could not believe it until I saw the photos on Google. (type in 'snow in Calgary')

a reply to: Wardaddy454

We are still in an ice age. This part is called an interglacial when the ice is less. Ice coverage fluctuates a lot during an ice age, and this affects other parts of the climate.

a reply to: Subaeruginosa

Wouldn't it be funny if we found out later that AGW prevented the next glacial from killing off mankind?

a reply to: Krazysh0t
The question is whether an important variable has been left out which corrupts the calculations and renders them invalid. For example, a model which does not include cloud cover and the negative feedback to heating caused by the sensitivity of cloud area to increased thermal flux to the ocean surface might be considered so incomplete as to be worthless.

Do the models you rely on include this factor?

a reply to: Krazysh0t

In other news, August is expected to break a world wide heat record held by the previous record holder of this past July which broke the record held by this past June.

For what time period? Here we have been , for about 10 years, experiencing very cool summers and cold snow filled winters. This year Georgia appears to be back to normal. So , I guess you could omit all the previous years before the 10 year span and say Georgia has broken heat records this year??? And strange enough , during that time we had more tornadoes , tornado warnings , and tornado watches.Very , very few this year. As it was in the past.

a reply to: Gothmog

I know. We haven't hit triple digit heat more than maybe once for all of this summer here in KC. And this August has been so brutally hot that I've been putting my son in a light hoodie to head off to school these past few mornings.

It has not been typical August heat at all.

a reply to: Gothmog

For what time period?

For about 100 years.

So , I guess you could omit all the previous years before the 10 year span and say Georgia has broken heat records this year???

Lucky you. But that's not how it works. The statistics are based on the average temperatures across the planet. It was the warmest for the planet. So that means, while for you it might have been cooler, there are greater areas which have been warmer. Of course, you don't care about that.

BTW, for the U.S., it was pretty near average for the past 121 years. Unlike last year.

Here's another interesting one:
In the past 365 days, in the US there have been 156 all time high temperature records set, as compared to 34 all time low temperature records. There is a similar disparity in global record temperatures.
www.ncdc.noaa.gov...

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: network dude
I must have missed it completely, where in the OP did anyone say it wasn't getting warmer?

ETA:
how long will it continue to warm? will storms continue to be less of a threat? Will the ice caps completely melt? Will the seas rise a few inches, or a few feet? How long will all that take?

There are models and predictions for all of this. Though it remains to be seen if the models will hold true. There may be some other variables we aren't accounting for.

There seem to be a lot of unanswered questions for something that we were told the science was settled on.
I think for now, it's perfectly acceptable to ask a few more questions about this subject, don't you?

Did I use the word "settled" when talking about this science? Hmmm... Nope, so I'd call this a strawman. Heck I don't use the word "settled" for ANY scientific theory since all of them get added to all the time.

Naw, you didn't say it. I am sure you have enough smarts to know that we don't' have enough information to make empirical statements about a subject we know so little about relatively.

But this clown did.

And until we have solid answers to all the questions, I think it's not only healthy, but imperative that we continue to ask questions and challenge what we have been told. If it's true and right, then all the predictions will be there, but if not, we might not all burst into flames in the near future. (I kind of hope the doom peddlers were wrong, call me optimistic that way)

originally posted by: StanFL
a reply to: Krazysh0t
The question is whether an important variable has been left out which corrupts the calculations and renders them invalid. For example, a model which does not include cloud cover and the negative feedback to heating caused by the sensitivity of cloud area to increased thermal flux to the ocean surface might be considered so incomplete as to be worthless.

Do the models you rely on include this factor?

This is called an assumption. If we don't know about an important variable like that, we can't pretend like one exists. Until we can prove it DOES exist, then we just do our calculations without it. That's just Occam's Razor right there.

originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: Krazysh0t

In other news, August is expected to break a world wide heat record held by the previous record holder of this past July which broke the record held by this past June.

For what time period? Here we have been , for about 10 years, experiencing very cool summers and cold snow filled winters. This year Georgia appears to be back to normal. So , I guess you could omit all the previous years before the 10 year span and say Georgia has broken heat records this year??? And strange enough , during that time we had more tornadoes , tornado warnings , and tornado watches.Very , very few this year. As it was in the past.

You do know I posted links backing up that claim on the first page right?

Here go educate yourself before you continue to put your foot in your mouth.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: network dude
And until we have solid answers to all the questions, I think it's not only healthy, but imperative that we continue to ask questions and challenge what we have been told. If it's true and right, then all the predictions will be there, but if not, we might not all burst into flames in the near future. (I kind of hope the doom peddlers were wrong, call me optimistic that way)

Here's the thing. Not ALL of the models have been wrong. What usually happens is that all the very EXTREME models turn out wrong. Then the conservative right turns around and says, "See! The world is still here! Climate change is wrong!" But they completely neglect the fact that many of the lower bound models are still spot on. Then there ARE times when even those models are wrong, but it's usually not by much. Weather and climate are very hard to predict.

Though, while we may be wrong here and there about this, we have a VERY good idea of the effect humans are having on the planet. No, the planet isn't going to flood tomorrow. Heck it may not even flood during our lifetimes, but it IS heating up. We can directly show a correlation between human greenhouse gas output and the rising temperatures. We may not know EXACTLY the end results, or even have a very good idea of it, but we KNOW we are doing something and it's not good.

I'll trust the scientists over someone who cannot distinguish between weather and climate.
You must work for Exxon.
a reply to: ChesterJohn

i don't know about increases per se, but i know that this summer, here, has been without question the dullest, cloudiest, rainiest, most downright miserable one in my living memory. absolute rubbish

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: network dude
And until we have solid answers to all the questions, I think it's not only healthy, but imperative that we continue to ask questions and challenge what we have been told. If it's true and right, then all the predictions will be there, but if not, we might not all burst into flames in the near future. (I kind of hope the doom peddlers were wrong, call me optimistic that way)

Here's the thing. Not ALL of the models have been wrong. What usually happens is that all the very EXTREME models turn out wrong. Then the conservative right turns around and says, "See! The world is still here! Climate change is wrong!" But they completely neglect the fact that many of the lower bound models are still spot on. Then there ARE times when even those models are wrong, but it's usually not by much. Weather and climate are very hard to predict.

Though, while we may be wrong here and there about this, we have a VERY good idea of the effect humans are having on the planet. No, the planet isn't going to flood tomorrow. Heck it may not even flood during our lifetimes, but it IS heating up. We can directly show a correlation between human greenhouse gas output and the rising temperatures. We may not know EXACTLY the end results, or even have a very good idea of it, but we KNOW we are doing something and it's not good.

But we don't "KNOW" how long it will last, it if will turn around next week due to some unforeseen factor, it if will accelerate and burn us all into charcoal. The doom guesses are what makes this topic the way it is today. Much less credible. If we are going to adapt to the new ways, we need realistic understanding of what's going to happen. Not lies and hyperbole. And seeing as how we aren't at all interested in making any changes, adapting is our only choice.

originally posted by: ChesterJohn
I recently read that according to Climate Change advocates that there would be an increase in severe storms, Hurricanes and other weather related phenomena.

For 2015 specifically?

Anyway, there have been. From heatwaves in Europe, the Middle East and Asia to unprecedented cyclones forming off Australia and the unusual sequence of severe typhoons in the Pacific.

As you would know if instead of relying on local media you followed my blog weatherearthnews.blogspot.co.uk...

a reply to: RoScoLaz4

You cant be very old then.

2012 was much worse

originally posted by: jjkenobi

Every prediction Al Gore made was wrong. No ice at the caps. No more snow. Earth warming 11 degrees. Stronger and more frequent hurricanes. Coastal cities under water. But he is a politician so do you really expect any truth from him?

Al Gore is a climate scientist in the same way a some old chewing gum found underneath a school desk is a quantum physicist.

Biu if you believe politicians you deserve to be disappointed