Greek banks closed on Monday. state of emergency.

a reply to: MrSpad

I agree and you are spot on.......The only wild cards I see are the rise of nationalism in Europe especially Greece. They have a first rate army and are part of NATO. If they descend into chaos the implications could be global in scale.



Another wild card could be exposure we are not aware of.......One bank fails........Two banks fail......Three banks fail.

originally posted by: onequestion
How is this going to affect stock and dollar value in the US

It won't directly according to a local financial expert I generally trust. The US generally doesn't hold Greek debt. No one who is in any way responsible in money management should be holding Greek debt right now because the writing on the wall had been pretty fluorescent here for several years. At this point, the only ones in the US who should be holding Greek debt are speculators.

The ones who will directly feel this are the ones holding Greek debt, and that's basically the EU. So the real question is how will this impact the EU? How badly? Because it's the EU that the US is more closely and directly tied to as a trade partner. In the short run, expect the relative value Euro vis a vis the dollar to fall with any and all impact that would imply.

But for us day to day, not much, no directly or immediately.

If Greece defaults, that would be news because just Friday they were saying Greece and creditors had agreed to most of the terms of a deal with just some minor differences to work out. Then the Greek parliament would have to vote to approve the terms. I was thinking if Greece's leaders sold out, the people in Greece might riot. They may riot regardless though. I thought maybe those in power wanted to extend the deal out a few months and then blame Greece for a massive stock sell off. I was wondering if this was going to happen now or if the democrats wanted to hold off a massive us stock market sell off until after the elections in case the republicans get votes because some Americans become unhappy with 401k returns. ie, the democrats could lose the election in the US if enough Amercans become unhappy.

I do not think Greece alone would cause any really big stock market sell off. The uncertainty of which country could leave the euro currency next and default on foreign owned loans might. Portugal and who knows what other countries have a lot of foreign debt. Only the EU knows who might want a different currency and default.

I'll add I believe the US stock market is due for a sell off using elliotwave analysis but I believe someone likes to coordinate big sell offs to news events. Blaming Greece for starting it and then other countries who leave the eu currency by defaulting on foreign owned debt could get blamed. Major institutions have already been selling so it's the ordinary retail investors who are currently holding a lot of stock. It makes sense if the rug got pulled out now, I know who's holding a lot of stock.

It would be good to let Greece go. There is no point to keep bailing them out when problems are not only in government level but involves everyday lives when many who runs their own business steals from their own country by deceptions, its common in Greece that receipt given is half of money paid, of course there are honest ones too and i feel sorry for those as they are innocent in the situation.
"Free money" is always a free money and welcomed as long as we others are willing to pay.

when has there been rational thought when your money is tied up in stock, or your cash is sitting in a bank.....Monday rolls around and watch how many people in Europe are going to withdraw money...remember cypress?.....especially people that may only have a few thousand Euros saved....do you think they are going to gamble on having cash in their hand...as opposed to... stored in some bank that might keep it's doors and ATM's shut down for a while....believe me, the wealthy have hard assets on hand, gold, silver, hundred of thousands, or millions in cash stashed in their own vaults. they will be able to eat for quite a while, or fly to a different country to access another account. can the rest of Europe's people say the same??

Was I the only one who noticed that the only jovial person throughout these crisis talks has been the Greek PM? He knows Greece will default. He was just buying time for his citizens to run/walk the banks whilst leading the EU down the garden path as a distraction.

I actually like the man.

Even AM was sour faced and she's head of the economic power house of Europe. She's usually pretty upbeat because she's usually in the bargaining seat. I don't believe for a second these talks have been going the way they've been reported in MSM.

And the only top people who I saw comment were from Belgium, Estonia (??) and Luxembourg!! Not exactly power players......more like equivalent of Parliaments back benchers.

Now we're getting close to the time when the UK should do the same. If the Central banks raise their interest rates we'll be classed as bad credit anyway and won't be able to borrow from Paul to pay back Peter so pre-empting it may not be such a bad idea.

The EU is not workable.....it was a bad idea waiting to go wrong......

a reply to: MrSpad

The Greek people really need to clean house. The Greek government lied and hid how bad things were to get into the Euro hoping the EU would then have to bail them out of the mess they had created

It makes you think...

The banners that scroll across the bottom of the news suggest that this crisis has global ramifications and has investors shaking in their boots worldwide. I can't help but feel that this crisis has been overestimated, but that doesn't help the Greeks sleep at night.

This situation simplified

They were about to close a deal,
but the creditors demanded even more increased taxes and even lower income, also an increased tourist tax which would affect the tourism.

All this in order to keep lending more money to Greece in order to pay back the previous loans and keep the banks alive,

But this Government doesn't say yes to everything, like the previous corrupted ones did,

So they said to the creditors you can't demand, even more austerity and destroy the lives of greek people, like you are some kind of dictators....we have democracy and we can't take ''orders'' from you or anyone...

That's where the 5 July referendum come from
In democracy the people will decide to ;
either accept the creditor deals and live with austerity, waiting for a better future that will never come...
or dismiss their tactics and open up various possibilities, including leaving the euro, open up relations with Russia, China...
Close the door to various investments from the west, Investors who wait to see Greece on their knees to come in and buy dirt cheap , land, organizations and resources.


So Europe are closing relation with the Greek banks causing a cash deficiency.
People fears for their money... and rush to Atms.

In order to keep the banks alive the government will close the banks tomorrow, and when they open there will be a limit to how much someone can get.

That's what really happening...

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
weve been warning about this for a while now......And people said we were crazy ...telling everyone to look at Greece and watch......warning of a run on the banks and people pulling out their money .......its coming for Greece........

Weve also been saying that the same thing is coming for the US if things dont change.......

To try to put the possibility of the Greece defaulting on their debt, into some kind of perspective...

The Greek economy represents about 1.3% of the European Union's GDP.

The economy of Metropolitan Detroit represents about 1.1% of the American GDP.

Detroit's bankruptcy did not lead to the collapse of the U.S. Dollar any more than the insolvency of Greece will lead to the collapse of the Euro.

In fact, some analysts believe that if Greece pulls out of the EU, the Euro will go up.

Investors are also very cautious about betting on a euro rise in the event of a Greek exit, even if they think a return to the drachma could leave the rest of the eurozone stronger in the long term.

Fears of financial contagion from a Greek exit may have eased in recent years, but such an event could still provoke market shock waves that would be hard to predict, said Mr. Jen of SLJ Macro Partners.

“The idea that the euro is stronger without Greece is an interesting concept and probably correct, but it's hard to see that as a reason to buy the euro,” he said.

www.wsj.com...

So, the jury is still out on whether a default will be positive or negative for Europe and/or Greece...it is hardly such a calamitous event that people in Wisconson need to be running to their closest ATM's.

The real worry is that both Russia and China are waiting in the winds to offer Greece the bailout money it needs.

In a nutshell..... Greece spent way beyond its means back in the earlier 00's then everything went sh*t and the EU / EMF et al offered a 'loan' to keep it all afloat......problem was that then Greece was bust but before rational and intelligence kicked in then TPTB offered a second loan to pay the countries daily expenses whilst servicing the initial debt.
Greece went through hardship and massive austerity (America has NO idea).... Unemployment currently is 27% .....imagine that......GDP has declined by 25% , imagine that and YET Greece is unable to change enough to meet those repayments YET they need ANOTHER........ The talks are about agreeing a third bailout so as to service the debt of the previous bailouts and not even touch the underlying problem which Greece cannot afford itself.....!

PDUK

originally posted by: HumberWarrior
I actually like the man.

Many do.

The EU is not workable.....it was a bad idea waiting to go wrong......

I haven't got a clue on what you base that conclusion. The EU has existed since 1957, that's 58 years and counting. It grew beyond even the wildest expectations and is the biggest economy in the world. It established free trade, free traffic of goods and people, has a good healthcare system and good educational system. And, most importantly, it prevented the stupidity of European nations going to war again. Europe is not a bad idea at all, that's just wishful thinking on your part.

What did go wrong was the "Americanization" of the EU. Europe changed from a mostly social-democratic system in which we tried to spread wealth equally over the people into a mostly capitalistic system in which a few prospered at the cost of most. The Greek simply are not able to apply those modern capitalistic EU thinking patterns to their society. Tsipras is living proof of it: a young, intelligent man without much pump and circumstance. When former Greek governments tried to force the capitalistic model onto the Greek, the Greek, noting the disastrous effects on their society, massively chose a socialist president and made the socialist party the biggest party in Greece. That was a clear signal.

But instead of listening to these signals - Greece is by far not the only European country that is sick and tired of the everlasting dance around the bankers Golden Calf - and try to get the EU back to it's socialist/social democratic roots, the current powers that be have nsisted that Greece should uphold treaties it simply is not able nor capable of upholding.

Tsipras now has initiated a referendum in which the Greek get to choose if they want to agree to the harsh reductions necessary to adhere to the mostly neo-liberal EU agenda. Given that currenty already a QUARTER of the Greek working population is without work - and for young people that's a stunning SIX in TEN, I fail to see how the Greek are supposed to get the money to be able to pay more taxes. Most of them don't have enough to feed their families as it is now. So, I guess most Greeks will shrug and say "well, if it has to be, it has to be" and simply vote "no".

All that is needed now is European realism: we tried to "Americanize" our society, but we should not continue to do so. The capitalistic model simply does not work for us, for the continent that invented "freedom, equality and brotherhood". Instead of forcing the Greek to choose against us, we should embrace part of their vision, and re-establish a more social, a more democratic union once more.

Let's see what happens. But mark my words: Europe isn't dead yet, not by a long stretch.

originally posted by: PurpleDog UK
The real worry is that both Russia and China are waiting in the winds to offer Greece the bailout money it needs.

In a nutshell..... Greece spent way beyond its means back in the earlier 00's then everything went sh*t and the EU / EMF et al offered a 'loan' to keep it all afloat......problem was that then Greece was bust but before rational and intelligence kicked in then TPTB offered a second loan to pay the countries daily expenses whilst servicing the initial debt.
Greece went through hardship and massive austerity (America has NO idea).... Unemployment currently is 27% .....imagine that......GDP has declined by 25% , imagine that and YET Greece is unable to change enough to meet those repayments YET they need ANOTHER........ The talks are about agreeing a third bailout so as to service the debt of the previous bailouts and not even touch the underlying problem which Greece cannot afford itself.....!

PDUK

You think we have no idea? There are some estimates that our current unemployment is about 25% no matter what the "official" numbers say. We are just still able to borrow enough to keep the unemployed subsidized so they aren't living under the overpasses yet.

The worlds greatest and most powerful country.....?

I read recently that Tim Gietner stepped in and refused the Irish Government back in 2008 the ability to 'burn the bond holders' and so caused the austerity which hurt Ireland over the past 5 yrs plus....... Greece on the other hand is even more of a basket case and will never be able to do what Ireland has done......my point though is that American business and the American way is and has bankrupt the world, Greece is the first public casualty........ What happens in Greece is critical to the future of Europe and IMHO Russia and China are about to step in....

I actually despise the American way at the moment....one of greed, self centreness and big business corruption......a sickening example of what is wrong with humanity....

Regards

PDUK
a reply to: ketsuko

a reply to: PurpleDog UK

Actually, it's not the "American" way. I can see where you might think that, but why anyone would think that taking all those separate European countries and forcing them into a union like that would work was madness. We developed into our Republic. With the exception of Texas and Hawaii (maybe Alaska ?), none of our states were ever autonomous with separate identities established through years of history like in Europe. Additionally, you had your own currencies and your own markets.

The EU was a grand social/economic engineering experiment that was fighting an uphill battle from its inception, and it was so poorly implemented that there was no way it was going to work well.

originally posted by: SubTruth
a reply to: MrSpad

I agree and you are spot on.......The only wild cards I see are the rise of nationalism in Europe especially Greece. They have a first rate army and are part of NATO. If they descend into chaos the implications could be global in scale.



Another wild card could be exposure we are not aware of.......One bank fails........Two banks fail......Three banks fail.

Internal troubles in Greece are likely and not unusual sadly. I expect the Greek banks will be nationalized. The Greek military is a problem, it is way to big and expensive because the Greeks fear the Turks even to this day. The problem is Greece just can not afford it. They have cut a bunch of spending but, not in normal ways. Instead of man power cuts the normal way a military makes cuts the Greeks have cut everything else. So they have an Army literally out of gas. They have done it this way because they fear releasing a bunch of young men into an already huge amount of unemployed people would be problematic to say the least. I have a feeling that the Greek army is going to end being a police force keeping different factions of Greeks from fighting each other. I hope that is not the case. That even in default something will be worked out. How that would happen I do not know. The EU and IMF are the only real options. Russia could not afford it for long and China is not going to give money they do not expect to see a good return on. The US acts through the IMF. And of course the fact would remain the problems in Greece would not be fixed.

As for exposure nobody knows about, I think that is unlikely. Everyone has seen this coming eventually. The reward does not seem to outweigh the risks in getting involved with Greece. If somebody has they deserve to get burned.

a reply to: ketsuko

Separate identities? The EU currently consists of only 28 nations. Your Republic consists of 50 states, a district and an atol (not mentioning the various American bases worldwide). Just like in Europe, your States differ wildly in culture, language and laws. Like in Europe, you have a federal law (we have European laws). And like in Europe, you had to suffer from a war to unite your country. The differences aren't that big, methinks. Greece leaving the EU would be similar to Texas leaving the US - both can happen, but it is highly unlikely.

The Greek debt problem is an unsustainable one. How far should one go to service a debt? What priority should a debt be paid over other demands like healthcare, food and water? What repercussions will result if you fail to pay the debt?

The issue of debt slavery is before the EU. Even with another 5, 10 or 20 years of austerity is there a clear way out for Greece? What happen to the risk to those that supplied the loan? One justification for charging interest was to help cover the loans that do fail as people die or go bankrupt.

It is good to see the Greek people stand together on this, something that has slain governments and nations around the world. In the past Greece could of just printed more money to sort out it currency issues, now it has to go through the EU.

The world is watching and waiting for fair and realistic approach, but not holding its breath. Good luck to all those involved and affected.

a reply to: kwakakev

The world is watching and waiting for fair and realistic approach, but not holding its breath. Good luck to all those involved and affected.

The Dow jones futures just opened down 346 points from the Friday close.
China took a 2 percent drop Friday.
Be interesting to see if the Asian markets follow the Dow futures lower.
If the Asian markets stage a late session recovery over night, that may be all there is in market reaction.

originally posted by: ForteanOrg
a reply to: ketsuko

Separate identities? The EU currently consists of only 28 nations. Your Republic consists of 50 states, a district and an atol (not mentioning the various American bases worldwide). Just like in Europe, your States differ wildly in culture, language and laws. Like in Europe, you have a federal law (we have European laws). And like in Europe, you had to suffer from a war to unite your country. The differences aren't that big, methinks. Greece leaving the EU would be similar to Texas leaving the US - both can happen, but it is highly unlikely.

Except that each of your "states" was an autonomous nation on its own for in some cases hundreds of years before it joined the EU with its own currency and markets and trade agreements.

In the US, each state does have its own culture as you say, but they also developed to be part of the whole except in a few narrow cases. There is no state that can claim the history of France, England or Italy prior to becoming part of the EU.

That changes things.

originally posted by: onequestion
How is this going to affect stock and dollar value in the US

My guess....stocks will decline and the Dollar will rise in value vis-a-vis the Euro at least. The strong dollar hurts the multi-nationals that export product out of the US to the EU.