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SCI/TECH: Asteroid Alert - 2029

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posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 02:01 AM
An alert has been issued by NASA concerning a possible impact of a 400M asteroid with the Earth. There is a 1 in 300 chance that it will impact. The asteroid is rated a 2 right now on the Torino Impact Hazard scale. This is the highest that any asteroid has been rated. If an impact did happen, it would be expected to hit on April 13, 2029, also, scientists say that the impact would not be catastrophic, but it would cause a great deal of damage.
Theres a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, we cant yet rule out an Earth impact, Yeomans said. But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

A one in 300 chance? Wow, much better odds than hitting the lottery... ha ha

I think this just underscores that the universe is a VERY dangerous place. Also, I doubt that any scientist would come out directly and say that they expect it to hit right now. They probably would downplay it till the last few hours. This is definately something to keep an eye on.

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Related Discussion Threads:

[edit on 24-12-2004 by JCMinJapan]

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 03:23 AM
Friday the 13th?

In 25 years, on Friday the thirteenth?

Jesus, those guys at NASA, what a sense of irony.

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 05:52 AM
Yes, I'd like to know more about this one. Hopefully once a few more measurements have been taken they'll be more certain one way or the other.

It's funny how I play the Lotto with jackpot odds of 14,000,000:1, but I'm thinking 300:1? - not much chance of it hitting then.

That sounds like a pretty big object to be landing in your garden. It might not be big enough to be catastrophic' but it'll to do nothing for house prices in the target area.

Incdentally, I think that the information on where this would hit would get out. 20 years is enough time to plan for the event. If Bruce Willis is too old to go up there and deal with it himself, we could at least evacuate the impact site inplenty of time.

Also, I don't think any one Government agency has enough control to keep something like this secret.

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 07:29 AM
just a matter of time.well i hope they have something they can do to stop this rock from hitting us.1 and 300 is not a very good chance.sounds like there will be some kind of problem with least nasa was nice enough to give us some warning on this one.2 thumbs up on the warning.just want to know one thing where will it hit and i gladly move out of its way when it does.flukemol........

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 07:45 AM
look at this story spooky or what?this one does look scary also.

[edit on 24-12-2004 by flukemol]

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 07:50 AM
Do they have any other info on this astroid? Is it porus or solid? If its porus, there may be nothing we can do to stop it. A direct hit with a nuke would break it down into a bunch of smaller pieces to wreak havoc all over the world.

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 07:57 AM
Asteroids, interesting I will have just retired by then.

I think the ability to track and predict potential asteroid impacts is indeed improving. But the threat of a comet impact on Earth could be much harder to predict.

There have been some comets that have entered our solar system undetected in the past, and with speeds of up to and exceeding 100,000 mph we could only have weeks or perhaps months advance warning of a comet impact, not quite enough time to really be able to do anything about it.

Its an interesting thought, but many believe that much of the water in our oceans came from icy comet impacts on our primitive planet.

Imagine what an impact like that today would do to our world.

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 09:06 AM
Certainly makes us realise what futile wars we fight here on the ground.When an asteroid is about to strike , will the Islamic militants and the right-wing Christians hold hands and pray, while the Chinese and the Europeans cooperate to evacuate/research a way to deflect the incoming rock?

posted on Dec, 24 2004 @ 11:43 AM
A 400m object isint going to do that much damage, provided its made up of ice and not something denser. As for the 300 to 1 odds, I would say those are pretty good considering odds of seeing a straight flush in poker are like 4 in 2.5 million hands (and I've seen one in a legitimately dealt game) so I would definately not write the asteroid, at least not yet.

As for the laughable hope that people would come together in light of something like this, I seriously doubt it. It might draw together the people of the area it hits, but a global effort is just a pipe dream. If anything it will make thing worse because each waring faction will claim its the fault of the others for being heathens/infidels. No happy Armageddon ending for this one.

If you want to take a whack at seeing the impact results, check out this impact caculator that was releseased many months ago

posted on Dec, 26 2004 @ 10:58 AM
First calculations suggested there was a 1-in-300 chance of an impact. On December 23, they were 1-in-60, but up-dated figures released today give better odds, if you can call it that.

There is now a 1-in-45 chance that Asteroid 2004 MN4, discovered in June and spotted again last week, will collide with the Earth on April 13, 2029.

[edit on 26-12-2004 by makeitso]

posted on Dec, 26 2004 @ 01:07 PM
The treath is in 2029,but that too is to an extent a False Alarm..
Asteroid risk in 2029 sparks yellow alert
Odds set at 1 in 45, but its likely to be false alarm

This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldnt be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy.
Donald Yeomans
NASA Close Encounters Of The Asteriod

Then there's the Asteroid alert for 2014...

Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting the world to a potential asteroid strike last month. Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object, later designated 2004 AS1, had a one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours.


"If... the call had been made to the president it would have been disastrous" ...

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