U.S. Spy Plane Records China's Artificial Islands, China Threatens Response

a reply to: pheonix358

In this instance China is clearly the aggressor and in breach of accepted international law .

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: luthier

As does the stability of the us economy. We are completely interconnected. They produce everything for us. It would be a much worse disaster here where we are already used to comfort.

Since the US imports more from China than we sell to them because of how cheap it is does not place the US in the same boat of economic survival based on trading partners. The US has the ability to make up for the loss of Chinese factories. China on the other hand cannot cope with the loss of a large market like the US. So while we are interconnected, China is more reliant on the US than the US is on them.

We could survive the loss. The Chinese government would not survive the loss.

Has it never occurred to you why China was building ghost cities? It is not to deal with their population. It was done to keep their people employed, which in turn artificially supported other sectors of their economy, namely construction and everything attached to it.

Remember we are talking about economic issues in terms of government stability.

originally posted by: luthierThe other thing people forget is china doesn't care about their people. They will simply execute the people rising up. Publically.

Which is what my argument is based on. The more the Chinese government abuses their people coupled with economic issues the harder it is for the Chinese government to keep control. The Chinese government has been forced to arm some of their police forces in areas that are seeing an increase in public uprisings.

The whole purpose for the Chinese President to crack down on government corruption was based on public perception of the government.

originally posted by: luthier
Also china has plenty of money to continue projects for the next decade. You are being a sensationalist. There is no respected eco omist in the world that agrees with you.

Actually no they don't. The Chinese have been caught under reporting their debt in addition to completely leaving out their municipal debt from international reporting. Chinese government debt has surpassed their GDP and by some accounts they have passed it by almost 250%.

So no im not being sensational and yes, there are a lot of economist that agree with me.

Ok link me some economists and I will check them out.

How do you suppose we get rare earth?

So you honestly believe we can restructure our economy and have a labor force anywhere near enough to produce goods cheaply? There is not a single economist I have hears of that thinks that is possible. Not a well respected one.

The transition would be devastating to the US and Europe. The cost of goods and consumer price index would sky rocket.

We would see how bad inflation really is when we start relying on Europe and the us for goods. Do you know how many parts of products come from China?

There is no way we get out unscathed.

Your conspiracy about the abandoned villages may be true. Or they could be used for military simulation.

The global economy is interconnected china going down would be fatal for the poor and lower middle class. No more cheap goods.
There is no tooled up labor force in the world that could replace the size of the Chinese manufacturing industry and keep us chugging along and walmarts and targets, food etc stocked up.
Even on the simplest supply and demand tells you it would be a disaster, that's not even considering what would happen to the multinationals, stocks, property, bonds, debt, etc.

Take the flag off your eyes man we are a global economy. We effect china they effect us on and on.

a reply to: Nowornevertill

China is not on its knees, and so will find it difficult to remain in such a position.

The propaganda is strong with this one... In actual fact, you remind me of another member who could not resist any opportunity to make ill informed comments about issues pertaining to the wars of words between the communist and former communist nations, and the west. I cannot remember the name for the life of me, but I am sure you would both get on famously.

One thing people are overlooking in the South China Sea dispute. Is that the fishing in that area feeds all the involved countries .

If China is allowed to exercise sovereignty over the area. They will deny Vietnam, Malaysia, Burnei, the Philippines and Taiwan access to this food source for their people .

In southeast Asia food may turn out to be even more strategic than oil .

a reply to: Greathouse

good point on the food aspect also we need to keep in mind by some estimates china will run out of drinkable fresh water due to poluting there water ways and growing demand there by 2035 that will be a nightmare and who knows what they will do when this poblem really start effecting them

originally posted by: luthier
Ok link me some economists and I will check them out.

* - WSJ - Chinese Debt Stands Tall - 2015
* - WTO member profile - China
* - Zerohedge - 2012 Turns Out China IS Lying About Everything (Disclosure - I cannot stand zerohedge and I don't trust their reporting).
* - China's Government Debt Is Ballooning — Here Are 5 Reasons Why You Can't Say It's Out Of Control - ($3 trillion(USD) in local debt) - 2013
* - FT - China's Debt: How Serious Is It? 2014 (Figure used from Chinese State Council)

* - Reuters - Global Economy 2015
* - QZ (Reuters article) Why China’s economy is slowing and what it means for everything 2015
* - China's Economic Hard Landing: Think Twice Before Gloating Over China’s Slowdown - 2013

To drive the issue home -
A GDP growth of 5% for the US for the entire year would be considered anemic.

China on the other hand has experienced double digit growth, per quarter, in the double digits for the last few decades. That number is now down to single digits, which some western countries would love to have, yet a very bad sign for the Chinese economy.

originally posted by: luthier
How do you suppose we get rare earth?

Currently China is still the top producer and exporter of REM's. However new technology and finds in countries other than China are putting a dent in Chinas share. The US, Japan and other countries took China to the WTO over their policies and restrictions on REM. The WTO found China in violation.

originally posted by: luthier
So you honestly believe we can restructure our economy and have a labor force anywhere near enough to produce goods cheaply? There is not a single economist I have hears of that thinks that is possible. Not a well respected one.

In political terms yes the US has the ability. Again, remember we are talking about china's economics in a political manner in terms of its governments stability. Losing the US would adversely affect the Chinese government in the eyes of its own people.

originally posted by: luthier
The transition would be devastating to the US and Europe. The cost of goods and consumer price index would sky rocket.

Possibly.. Other countries however would most likely pick up the lost Chinese market share of the US. There is currently a push underway in the US to bring jobs back home, and that has been occurring. I am not really sure why Europe was brought into the conversation. I am talking about China and the US.

originally posted by: luthier
We would see how bad inflation really is when we start relying on Europe and the us for goods. Do you know how many parts of products come from China?

India, Africa, South America, Europe - plenty of countries that could replace the loss of china's manufacturing base. This is why I was saying the US is not in the same boat as China is in this area. The US has the manufacturing capacity to replace Chinas manufacturing base. However, China would find it difficult to replace their US markets. China is able to produce items cheaply because their government sets the wages. Those wages are designed to be low in order to generate a profit for Chinese companies / government which in turn locks in market share based on Chinese manufacturers.

originally posted by: luthier
There is no way we get out unscathed.

Of course not. The US would be impacted. However, again. I am discussing their economy in reference to their governments stability and survival.

originally posted by: luthier
Your conspiracy about the abandoned villages may be true. Or they could be used for military simulation.

Either way the cities were built to employ people and prop up sectors of the economy reliant on construction.

originally posted by: luthier
The global economy is interconnected china going down would be fatal for the poor and lower middle class. No more cheap goods.
There is no tooled up labor force in the world that could replace the size of the Chinese manufacturing industry and keep us chugging along and walmarts and targets, food etc stocked up.
Even on the simplest supply and demand tells you it would be a disaster, that's not even considering what would happen to the multinationals, stocks, property, bonds, debt, etc.

Then China should think twice before claiming jurisdiction in international waters and airspace. As for stocks and bonds research those areas in Chinas economy.

originally posted by: luthier
Take the flag off your eyes man we are a global economy. We effect china they effect us on and on.

Yes and once again I am referring to their economics in terms of their governments stability. While the US and China would suffer should China lose the US market, the US government would survive it where as the Chinese government most likely would not.

a reply to: pez1975

April 2014 RT - China’s eco-crisis: 60% of underground water polluted

That is just water and does not account for air / ground pollution.

originally posted by: pez1975
a reply to: Greathouse

good point on the food aspect also we need to keep in mind by some estimates china will run out of drinkable fresh water due to poluting there water ways and growing demand there by 2035 that will be a nightmare and who knows what they will do when this poblem really start effecting them

Without derailing the thread water and food is a global issue. That's why you see a lot of old oil billionaires investing in water and mineral rights.

California and Texas also have serious fresh water problems. Since we produce an abundance of agriculture we have diverted and diminished a lot of our own water table. Not to mention pollution from all the tracking that allowed us to become the worlds largest oil producer.

We are on a spaceship with a time bomb. If we don't stop spreading ethnocentric nonsense we will not come together to solve the actual problem. Everyone on earth is running out or resources and automation is effecting labor forces. How do we transition should be the focus.

This issue is a global warning of what is on the horizon.

originally posted by: pez1975
a reply to: Greathouse

good point on the food aspect also we need to keep in mind by some estimates china will run out of drinkable fresh water due to poluting there water ways and growing demand there by 2035 that will be a nightmare and who knows what they will do when this poblem really start effecting them

Historically southeast Asia is no stranger to famine . And as both you and X pointed out the future may hold a problem with potable water .

Anytime you add those two together you must always add pestilence . The strategic significance of the area runs far deeper than some people think .

a reply to: luthier

California and Texas also have serious fresh water problems. Since we produce an abundance of agriculture we have diverted and diminished a lot of our own water table. Not to mention pollution from all the tracking that allowed us to become the worlds largest oil producer.

I agree we have issue that need adressed in america but our issue is a drought issue that can be wiped out with a few years of better rain fall like texas has seen this year which has almost wiped out there drought issue, how ever chinas problem is much more serious imo its a pollution issue not an environment issue that can be easily alleviated.

America issues can be resolved easily china not so much imo

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: luthier
Ok link me some economists and I will check them out.

* - WSJ - Chinese Debt Stands Tall - 2015
* - WTO member profile - China
* - Zerohedge - 2012 Turns Out China IS Lying About Everything (Disclosure - I cannot stand zerohedge and I don't trust their reporting).
* - China's Government Debt Is Ballooning — Here Are 5 Reasons Why You Can't Say It's Out Of Control - ($3 trillion(USD) in local debt) - 2013
* - FT - China's Debt: How Serious Is It? 2014 (Figure used from Chinese State Council)

* - Reuters - Global Economy 2015
* - QZ (Reuters article) Why China’s economy is slowing and what it means for everything 2015
* - China's Economic Hard Landing: Think Twice Before Gloating Over China’s Slowdown - 2013

To drive the issue home -
A GDP growth of 5% for the US for the entire year would be considered anemic.

China on the other hand has experienced double digit growth, per quarter, in the double digits for the last few decades. That number is now down to single digits, which some western countries would love to have, yet a very bad sign for the Chinese economy.

originally posted by: luthier
How do you suppose we get rare earth?

Currently China is still the top producer and exporter of REM's. However new technology and finds in countries other than China are putting a dent in Chinas share. The US, Japan and other countries took China to the WTO over their policies and restrictions on REM. The WTO found China in violation.

originally posted by: luthier
So you honestly believe we can restructure our economy and have a labor force anywhere near enough to produce goods cheaply? There is not a single economist I have hears of that thinks that is possible. Not a well respected one.

In political terms yes the US has the ability. Again, remember we are talking about china's economics in a political manner in terms of its governments stability. Losing the US would adversely affect the Chinese government in the eyes of its own people.

originally posted by: luthier
The transition would be devastating to the US and Europe. The cost of goods and consumer price index would sky rocket.

Possibly.. Other countries however would most likely pick up the lost Chinese market share of the US. There is currently a push underway in the US to bring jobs back home, and that has been occurring. I am not really sure why Europe was brought into the conversation. I am talking about China and the US.

originally posted by: luthier
We would see how bad inflation really is when we start relying on Europe and the us for goods. Do you know how many parts of products come from China?

India, Africa, South America, Europe - plenty of countries that could replace the loss of china's manufacturing base. This is why I was saying the US is not in the same boat as China is in this area. The US has the manufacturing capacity to replace Chinas manufacturing base. However, China would find it difficult to replace their US markets. China is able to produce items cheaply because their government sets the wages. Those wages are designed to be low in order to generate a profit for Chinese companies / government which in turn locks in market share based on Chinese manufacturers.

originally posted by: luthier
There is no way we get out unscathed.

Of course not. The US would be impacted. However, again. I am discussing their economy in reference to their governments stability and survival.

originally posted by: luthier
Your conspiracy about the abandoned villages may be true. Or they could be used for military simulation.

Either way the cities were built to employ people and prop up sectors of the economy reliant on construction.

originally posted by: luthier
The global economy is interconnected china going down would be fatal for the poor and lower middle class. No more cheap goods.
There is no tooled up labor force in the world that could replace the size of the Chinese manufacturing industry and keep us chugging along and walmarts and targets, food etc stocked up.
Even on the simplest supply and demand tells you it would be a disaster, that's not even considering what would happen to the multinationals, stocks, property, bonds, debt, etc.

Then China should think twice before claiming jurisdiction in international waters and airspace. As for stocks and bonds research those areas in Chinas economy.

originally posted by: luthier
Take the flag off your eyes man we are a global economy. We effect china they effect us on and on.

Yes and once again I am referring to their economics in terms of their governments stability. While the US and China would suffer should China lose the US market, the US government would survive it where as the Chinese government most likely would not.

I like how you try and keep the debate so it only suites you then you go on to talk about other countries that may benefit your argument. Obviously discussing the geopolitical situation is relevant to this discussion you just want to control the debate. You yourself brought up other countries.

Politically the US will not survive when its voting base is rioting not having products they can buy to sustain there life. China also is looking into other markets you do know that right?

There is no massive cheap labor forces left like china. Sorry. It would make goods very expensive.

Multinational corporations would crumble as would the stock market.

The cpi would no longer keep inflation at bay when every part of every product comes from much more expensive labor forces. This would cause instability and unrest in the us public which directly effects the stability of the government.

China can starve its people and keep a financial bubble to protect its military and government.

The us doesn't have this option.

How would we bring these jobs back home without driving up the cost of the products? We screwed ourselves by using the cpi to judge inflation. The cost of say an iPhone would be thousands of dollars. Remember supply and demand even if we had replacements in Vietnam etc it isn't enough to transfer China's labor force. Countries like India and Brazil do not have the social structure to have robotic people pumping out products like china.

originally posted by: pez1975
a reply to: luthier

California and Texas also have serious fresh water problems. Since we produce an abundance of agriculture we have diverted and diminished a lot of our own water table. Not to mention pollution from all the tracking that allowed us to become the worlds largest oil producer.

I agree we have issue that need adressed in america but our issue is a drought issue that can be wiped out with a few years of better rain fall like texas has seen this year which has almost wiped out there drought issue, how ever chinas problem is much more serius imo its a pollution issue not and environment issue that can be easily alleviated.

America issues can be resolved easily china not so much imo

I appreciate your debate and its civil and true. Thank you.
But I live in Texas the drought has barely been impacted. Austin is growing far faster than a healthy water supply can support.

Lake Travis for instance will only be effected by these rains for another couple of weeks. Its not only about the draught its also about using up aquifers and diverting too much river water to withstand weather fluctuations.

originally posted by: luthier

I like how you try and keep the debate so it only suites you then you go on to talk about other countries that may benefit your argument. Obviously discussing the geopolitical situation is relevant to this discussion you just want to control the debate. You yourself brought up other countries.

Actually I stayed with China and the US. You are the one who invoked the EU, not me. Since you opened the door I walked through it. Yes its relevant to the discussion and I explained why in the context of government stability in China.

originally posted by: luthier
Politically the US will not survive when its voting base is rioting not having products they can buy to sustain there life. China also is looking into other markets you do know that right?

Politically the US government would survive. The Chinese government would not. The reaction of the American people would most likely revolve around who started what to arrive at that scenario.

Of course China is looking for new markets. All countries look for new markets for business and security opportunities.

As an example - Its also why the Baltic countries and some European countries are looking for energy resources aside from Russia.

originally posted by: luthier
There is no massive cheap labor forces left like china. Sorry. It would make goods very expensive.

Of course and since the Chinese government establishes wages they have the ability to keep costs low. The difference though is US citizens would be able to afford those items at higher prices. The Chinese population would have issues to say the least. We saw this demonstrated when Hong Kong was returned to China from the UK. Since Hong Kong was based on western standards the cost of living there is something mainland Chinese could not afford.

originally posted by: luthier
Multinational corporations would crumble as would the stock market.

Crumble? I don't think they would. The stock market would take a hit however it would rebound.

originally posted by: luthier
The cpi would no longer keep inflation at bay when every part of every product comes from much more expensive labor forces. This would cause instability and unrest in the us public which directly effects the stability of the government.

China can starve its people and keep a financial bubble to protect its military and government.

The us doesn't have this option.

The casual manner China views its citizens is going to lead to their downfall. Products coming from other sources could be more expensive. It depends on where those replacement items would be coming from. It would also depend on the circumstances that resulted in our nightmare scenario.

originally posted by: luthier
How would we bring these jobs back home without driving up the cost of the products? We screwed ourselves by using the cpi to judge inflation. The cost of say an iPhone would be thousands of dollars. Remember supply and demand even if we had replacements in Vietnam etc it isn't enough to transfer China's labor force. Countries like India and Brazil do not have the social structure to have robotic people pumping out products like china.

All possibilities. However my argument revolves around Chinese government stability and survival based on economics.

a reply to: luthier

I haven't study Texas's drought issue as much as I have Oklahomas because I live here and our issue is over and we were in the same boat as texas 3 years ago but with changing weather patterens and more rain fall in the last 3 years our drought is over and i feel the secret government weather manipulation program had alot to do with this and will soon fix Texasa;s issues in the next year or 2 then they will focus more on cali

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: luthier

I like how you try and keep the debate so it only suites you then you go on to talk about other countries that may benefit your argument. Obviously discussing the geopolitical situation is relevant to this discussion you just want to control the debate. You yourself brought up other countries.

Actually I stayed with China and the US. You are the one who invoked the EU, not me. Since you opened the door I walked through it. Yes its relevant to the discussion and I explained why in the context of government stability in China.

originally posted by: luthier
Politically the US will not survive when its voting base is rioting not having products they can buy to sustain there life. China also is looking into other markets you do know that right?

Politically the US government would survive. The Chinese government would not. The reaction of the American people would most likely revolve around who started what to arrive at that scenario.

Of course China is looking for new markets. All countries look for new markets for business and security opportunities.

Its also why the Baltic countries and some European countries are looking for energy resources aside from Russia.

originally posted by: luthier
There is no massive cheap labor forces left like china. Sorry. It would make goods very expensive.

Of course and since the Chinese government establishes wages they have the ability to keep costs low. The difference though is US citizens would be able to afford those items at higher prices. The Chinese population would have issues to say the least. We saw this demonstrated when Hong Kong was returned to China from the UK. Since Hong Kong was based on western standards the cost of living there is something mainland Chinese could not afford.

originally posted by: luthier
Multinational corporations would crumble as would the stock market.

Crumble? I don't think they would. The stock market would take a hit however it would rebound.

originally posted by: luthier
The cpi would no longer keep inflation at bay when every part of every product comes from much more expensive labor forces. This would cause instability and unrest in the us public which directly effects the stability of the government.

China can starve its people and keep a financial bubble to protect its military and government.

The us doesn't have this option.

The casual manner China views its citizens is going to lead to their downfall. Products coming from other sources could be more expensive. It depends on where those replacement items would be coming from. It would also depend on the circumstances that resulted in our nightmare scenario.

originally posted by: luthier
How would we bring these jobs back home without driving up the cost of the products? We screwed ourselves by using the cpi to judge inflation. The cost of say an iPhone would be thousands of dollars. Remember supply and demand even if we had replacements in Vietnam etc it isn't enough to transfer China's labor force. Countries like India and Brazil do not have the social structure to have robotic people pumping out products like china.

All possibilities. However my argument revolves around Chinese government stability and survival based on economics.

Again you don't address any real issue. How would WalMart and target survive? How would the 100 million poor in the us survive?
Do you understand the cpi?

How would a multinational manufacturing company survive?

How would we create all these factories without a supply chain. Do you know how international business works? They wouldn't be able to transfer without tanking.

What labor force would replace china India? Brazil? Definitely not. I grew up with a dad in the wire and cable industry the only good factory replacements are in eastern Europe like Poland and the cost increase would not be sustainable.

If china falls so does the us. Mutual economic destruction.

Please lay out how we would actually in The real world with real number alleviate these issues.

You think cars with every part made by expensive labor would be affordable by the American public. The data shows most of the country is in debt with the current cpi. It would be devastating to the public and politics.

originally posted by: pez1975
a reply to: luthier

I haven't study Texas's drought issue as much as I have Oklahomas because I live here and our issue is over and we were in the same boat as texas 3 years ago but with changing weather patterens and more rain fall in the last 3 years our drought is over and i feel the secret government weather manipulation program had alot to do with this and will soon fix Texasa;s issues in the next year or 2 then they will focus more on cali

That could be but,..probably not. I don't think we are closed to that yet. Not without making things worse. Its impossible to know exactly how this would effect things even with computers doing weather modeling.

Its just as much about how much we are growing without thinking of sustainability. Why are solar panels not more used in Texas? Or why isn't rain barrel collection mandatory for these 500 home master plan communities we put up? They actually ban them because they are unsightly.

We need to all come together put the politicians on a rocket ship on a trip around the sun and we will find we will all keep eating. Its impossible to change with the political barriers in place. Its time to think globally and try and head off the coming disasters of resource unavailability.

originally posted by: joshint
Let the warring begins.

You first...

originally posted by: Nowornevertill
a reply to: Xcathdra

Wrong again.

China does understand how international law works, China is watching countries like US and Israel ignore international law completely and just do whatever they want.

Problem with the west is that you want China to remain in its knees.

It's the "Do as we say, Not as we do" approach and it's how the US operates Globally. And then the professed confusion as to why more and more Nations and even their own Citizens are getting tired, angry and fed-up.

It will all come to a head soon and unfortunately there will be a lot of innocents caught in the crossfire both at home AND abroad.

Jude

a reply to: luthier

i agree we have some issues in the US regrding water thats just how it is and i think they will be addressed but i also feel china is screwed ur talking about 2 states with water management issue on the flip side we are looking at and entire country with almost 2 billion peeple that will have ZERO potable water due to pollution in less than 20 years there is just no comparison imo this is apocalyptic in comparison and should be considered and factored into this problem with china and there need to expand.

originally posted by: luthier
Do you understand.....

I did address the issue. Again my argument is based on the Chinese government needing a stable and growing economy to retain power.

Losing China would create a problem in the US.

China losing the US would be detrimental to the Chinese government. Its what their power is based on.

originally posted by: luthier
.....snipped.......

Start a new thread if you want to discuss you fixation with market loss and replacement. I am talking about the Chinese government and how their economy keeps their government in power and stable.

If something were to occur leading to hostilities between the US and China we would need to consider the possibility of other nations dropping the Chinese market. To indulge your side of the coin dropping the US by countries other than China.