Tripolar convergence challenging Western rule.

- Or how global migration may trigger world war three. -

In this thesis I will try to explain a possible way in which the western power might be broken. The thesis will reflect upon the current global situation and take into account some of the future influences that will play a role in the threats facing the west.

Below a list of sources used as reference:
www.pewforum.org...
www.economist.com...
www.sipri.org...

While eyes are facing in the Middle-East as well as Russia we are contemplating how this can create a problem for the west once it expands. While I believe it is true that Russia is trying to use the situation in the Ukraine to its advantage. And that Russia might possibly exploit the recent vote incident in Kaliningrad to isolate Lithuania if it gets the chance I believe that will not trigger world the incident that threatens the west directly.

The current real problem is more long term. With the war against IS raging the amount of people fleeing the Middle-East is vast. Most of these people travel to Europe and most of these people have Islamic religion in their background. Due to the low birth rate in Europe as well as the surplus of additional Islamic refugees the general population will chance. In fact; research indicates that in 2050 most European countries will start to have a dominant Islamic majority.

This change in demographic will cause a change in the rules as well. Thou many Islamic people might be considered moderate; many will sympathize with the cry for more traditional Islamic values and rulings. Such chance will collide with the native European population who has a traditional Christian background with contemporary rulings common in western democratic nations.

The lack of Europe to pro-actively stop the flow of refugees, and more important, sending them back again when the possibility arrives is the result of a mass Stockholm syndrome European nations suffer. While it is understandable that refugees should enjoy safety, a major problem in Europe is expelling people who can safely return back to their original home countries. Many a times people can start procedure after procedures and enjoy rulings that prevent expulsion. This European behavior is due to a massive guilt by both the aftermath of World War 2's genocide as well as the slavery and colonization era of Europe.
It is only recently that European civilians are starting to rise up against the exceptional position of refugees. Refugees often get houses even before homeless people in Europe and often get monthly payouts from the state they are in that are higher then those native and homeless in the nation and often enjoy free counseling and legal support to fight against expulsion. While the population is gradually starting to turn against such measures, politically Europe doesn't change; Politically the will to change is frozen due to the fear of being called a racist or nationalist. As a result change hardly ever happens.

Around 2030 this passive behavior will give the Islamic populace the moment they will need to force political chance by voting in Europe. This will create tension between the two vastly different cultures. In such a situation only a single spark is needed to create a region wide war in Europe. While Germany, the UK and France have great armies; many of the smaller countries have favored to shrink their armies to save money. On top of the most of the Islamic populace of Europe is hosted in the major cities and provided with the high grade decentralized infrastructure of Europe.
This war would destroy Europe's internal power as it would be facing a patchwork of battles while at the same time facing a almost limitless supply of Islamic fighters from the Middle East.

By that time Russia will have completed its own modernization of its army. With Europe shattered in internal conflict Russia has a potential strike at Eastern Europe and will meet with very little concentrated European defense. Instead Russia will face separate armies from individual countries that aren't backed up by the major European military forces due to the civil wars.

At the same time America will be facing a strong China and might not be able to spend forces in Europe as Chine might take the Pacific Ocean in American absence.

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I am sorry for pointing directly to sources. I really want to make maps for this. But I currently lack the time to do it. This viewpoint is written from a European viewpoint. Let it be known; I have nothing against any religion...as long as religion and politics remain seperated.

a reply to: AncientShade

Unfortunately that would just goad the"Mil/Ind Complex" to return money to the US for a fight since THEY are in cahoots with the Shadow Government anyway..readersupportednews.org...

MORE death for their "objectives" in such a war than just causing the US to fail.

Nice well balanced thesis good work and I agree about European reluctance to send refugees back home as legal matters tend to drag things out and they get lost in the system s n f for you!

As for Russia taking eastern Europe u could be correct old Soviet union up and running again seems plausible.

Not much input on the China one though lol

In 15 years gas will be 15 dollars a gallon which will have a major impact on employment, jobs, and food.
California will likely have no water reserves which will have a major impact on internal displacement and the ability of a civil government to cope.
Both will cause food prices to skyrocket and lead to major failures of large centralized governments.
Iran will have Nukes, the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Europe will be escalating tensions over the remaining oil reserves causing instability military and political as well as in banking. The Mid East will be a sea of chaos acting as a vortex to draw major powers into direct confrontation. Unusual large scale weather event will be on the rise such as the flooding of major coastal cities after large storms. Earthquakes and tsunamis and sea rise will be increasing in frequency and power leading to major catastrophic events of a magnitude such as we see in New York, New Orleans, storms will have major consequences to local large major metropolitan areas on almost a bi yearly basis. Electrical and fuel and food distribution grids will begin to fail and many people will start moving around looking for work, food, shelter.
Just a thought experiment based on reasonable projections along current trends. See where it's leading?
Start forming farm based cooperatives with local governance and get away from nuclear energy, fossil fuels, deforestation, and you will do better than otherwise as trends progress. Big business and the Government isn't going to save your butt but social institutions that support each others growth and well being based on operation and unselfishness might.
a reply to: AncientShade

Europeans can vote themselves a different outcome. But will they? The U.S. faces similar immigration issues, yet doing something constructive about it is not even on the table at the national level.
a reply to: AncientShade

a reply to: AncientShade

Gee when it comes to Middle East, maybe USA shouldn't have created ISIS out of Syrian Rebels.

Gee when it comes to Europe maybe US shouldn't have invested 5 billion dollars into NGO groups to stage a revolution and install fascist puppet government.

What wrong with western think tanks, are they lacking in working brains or what.

Let the warring begins.