Economic storm ahead? El Nino is back

Money section on CNN website

So while HSBC is warning of economic storms, things might just turn even worse.

Apparently we are gearing up to a severe El Nino year with temps potentially going 1.5 degrees above the normal.
We've seen it before; blasting heat destroying crops in Asia, while punishing Europe in the winter.

Buckle up, even though I personally didn't feel 2007/08, I know that a lot of people did, and the way the banksters have been gambling around lately, I fear the outcome of this fall.

a reply to: flice

It has yet to be seen if this will pan out severe or not. El Nino conditions at a mild to moderate level have persisted off and on for the last two years or so, with this being the third year. The last time this happened, they forecast a super El Nino too because El Nino conditions already existed, but the super El Nino never materialized. Instead, it remained a steady moderate level El Nino that dissipated somewhat early.

Only time will tell which kind this will be - a multiple year mild to moderate El Nino - or the true super event. We will have a better idea by the end of July.

San Diego has received more than 2 inches of rain this month, when a typical May brings only about 0.10 of an inch.
So El nino may help with the California drought if it increases snow pack next winter.
The extra heat isn't particularly good for crops though..

originally posted by: Cauliflower
San Diego has received more than 2 inches of rain this month, when a typical May brings only about 0.10 of an inch.
So El nino may help with the California drought if it increases snow pack next winter.
The extra heat isn't particularly good for crops though..

Extra heat just isn't materializing out here in the Midwest. So far, we've barely had any days push into the 80s, and that's unusual for the middle of May. According to the long range forecasts up to the first of June, we might hit 80 a couple days next week. Usually, we're doing really good if we can make it to the first of June here without turning on our AC full-time. This year, we're still having to occasionally shut down our windows at night because it's been that cool.

So if anything the corn, which needs some heat to grow properly, may have trouble getting going.

Locally here it's anyones guess anymore the weather. We had a horrible winter, shattered some heat records last week topped out at 93*F and it seems we now live in the desert because it has been getting so cold at night to require windows shut. And briefly for the first time in a very long time we had a brief (5min) tornado warning in the past week. meh

a reply to: ketsuko

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

www.greencastonline.com...

You can see the setup better on the Palmer drought index.

Mid west growing region seems to have plenty of moisture and the soil temps are still in the 70's.
Corn will germinate with soil temps as low as 50 degrees.

originally posted by: Cauliflower
a reply to: ketsuko

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

www.greencastonline.com...

You can see the setup better on the Palmer drought index.

Mid west growing region seems to have plenty of moisture and the soil temps are still in the 70's.
Corn will germinate with soil temps as low as 50 degrees.

It's not the germinating, it's the maturing. Corn needs enough days at the right daily temp range to reach maturity, and we are running cool.

a reply to: flice

my part of Asia hasn't been too bad so far this summer (only two weeks of summer left). it's been hot of course but on the whole i don't think any worse than normal. certainly not as bad as in 2010, when there was even a bad drought here even in April when summer starts (where the heat and lack of moisture caused cracks in the ground over 5 feet deep). and keep in mind for most crops (except for things like strawberries who's season is pretty much over already), the "crop season" is all year. in fact there are normally 4 crops of rice. and even if things got bad enough they would likely only loose a small portion of one crop, since most planting and harvesting is done by hand meaning farmers will have crops in all stages of growth and are generally harvesting or planting every day of the year.

a reply to: ketsuko

There are still parts of Nebraska where the soil temperature is below 65, that appears to be a significant anomaly for mid May.
Late planting and cool temperatures means corn harvest gets delayed a few weeks this year?

originally posted by: Cauliflower
San Diego has received more than 2 inches of rain this month, when a typical May brings only about 0.10 of an inch.
So El nino may help with the California drought if it increases snow pack next winter.
The extra heat isn't particularly good for crops though..

If this el nino is as bad as some scientists are saying- it just might slide California off into the ocean.

As a self employed service provider, I didn't feel 07/08 either... which has always been odd to me. I always joked and said people were spending on vanity purchases because they were depressed. But I am really struggling because the economy in Denver is insane right now. The cost of living has almost tripled since 2008 and wages have barely gone up. I think we are barely over $8.00 per hour for minimum wage and the average 1 bedroom apartment is going for $1300 per month. But my rants about the Denver economy is probably best for another thread!

On a related note, I've lived in Denver my entire life and have never ever in my life seen it rain for days and days on end like it has. I really miss the sunshine! And it's also causing business to fall for me. So it's doubly annoying.

a reply to: flice

New housing bubble forming,

Students with debt not finding halfway decent opportunities,

More people in prison,

90% of companies do background checks, 65 million Americans with criminal records.

The perfect storm is brewing.