posted on May, 3 2015 @ 04:17 AM
a reply to: RickyD
I used to be a massive skeptic of alternative energy (you can see this via my post history), but as time goes on I get more and more optimistic. The
Tesla battery is not really a final product, it's just the beginning of what is possible with batteries. I would consider it similar to MP3 players
before the iPod.
- Since 2010, the cost of Lithium Ion batteries has been approximately halved. This trend has not stopped and will continue to at least 2020, Elon
Musk has already said the utlity scale battery will cost sold for around $250/kWh. The Tesla Gigafactory (opening in 2016/2017) is supposed
cut costs by 30% alone. So I would be expecting large price cuts and improvements by 2020 to this product.
- Electricity rates vary depending on location. Texas is cheap. One of the biggest markets for Tesla will be in California, which has much more
expensive electricity. Here a 400
MWh battery for utility scale grid storage is already being built
. In Australia I am paying around 30c/kWh.
- Solar power is also getting cheaper. It is already cheaper than the grid in many places, especially places with a lot of sun. At the moment solar
commonly relies on something called "net-metering" - where you are billing for your net electricity production or consumption. This is effectively a
subsidy since the cost of electricity is from not only the cost of production, but transmission and distribution as well, and since rooftop solar
tends to be sold back to the grid rather than used locally, the effect is electricity is being sold back to the grid at retail prices. If net-metering
ends (which I believe is inevitable) then the economics will change, it will no longer be preferable to sell as much solar power back to the grid as
possible, instead it will become more economic to use as much solar generation locally as possible. The latter almost requires energy storage to work.
Hence solar + storage.
I don't mean to downplay the battery itself as it is a step forward (even if it is kind of outdated tech and can be quite dangerous)
Nothing outdated about the batteries that Tesla uses. The cells themselves effectively have the highest volumetric and specific energy density of
anything out there. Most other statistics are also very good. High energy density is important, because it means the system can become smaller and
lighter, with less materials used and therefore lower cost.
edit on 3/5/15 by C0bzz because: (no reason given)