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originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Mandroid7
No need to be rich! Though, it certainly helps with publicity..
Either way, I feel these are all transitional technologies that will be outdated shortly. That doesn't make them less important, as they pave the way.
The only part of our future that looks bleak to me is humanity itself. The rest is thrilling and inspiring.
So how much is that battery power going to cost? Setting aside for a moment the cost of making that electricity in the first place, let’s look at just the cost of using the battery to store it and get it out again. Researcher Winfried Hoffman, the former CTO of Applied Materials AMAT +1.01%, has done some interesting work on the falling costs of battery power. He figures that for a lithium-ion system with an initial installation cost of $400 per kwh capacity, 80% efficiency and ability to run 5,000 cycles, the average cost of stored electricity will be 15 cents per kwh.
This might be conservative. Solar installer Sungevity is working with a German battery company called Sonnenbattery, which claims it can do 10,000 cycles.
But this calculation might also not be conservative enough. It’s unclear how many cycles you could expect to get out of Powerwall. Tesla says its 7 kwh Powerwall can cycle daily, while the 10 kwh system would cycle weekly. The cost of the battery is amortized over the total amount of electricity cycled through it over its lifetime. The less you use it, the higher your average unit cost.
Either way, 15 cents per kwh for battery storage seems ball-park reasonable.
To get your real electricity cost, you have to add to that 15 cent battery charge whatever you’re paying for that electricity in the first place. Since the idea is that batteries will work in tandem with solar, we’ll look at what Tesla’s sister company SolarCity SCTY +0.58% charges its customers. According to SolarCity, a customer pays no upfront costs for a system, but then gets dinged for 15 cents per kwh of power generated. In the contract, SolarCity has the ability to increase that rate 2.9% a year, which doesn’t seem like much, but would end up raising your cost per kwh above 20 cents by the end of the 20 year term. So adding together your 15 cents per kwh for solar power plus the 15 cents to cycle a kwh in and out of the battery, and you’re looking at 30 cents per kwh for electricity.
I think 30 cents per kwh is bonkers. At my home in Texas I pay 10 cents per kwh to Reliant Energy for electricity that is mostly generated by natural gas burning power plants.
The idea of course is that the solar panels on a 100% solar home would power the house during the day while simultaneously charging the Powerwall batteries, which would keep the power going at night. In order for that to work, you’d need a much bigger than average solar system. SolarCity says its average system generates 1,400 kwh a year. Given that the average home uses 10,800 kwh per year, your home would need 8 average-sized systems if it were to generate enough power to get you off the grid entirely while also providing enough excess electricity during the day to charge up your Powerwall.
And here’s where the economics of the Powerwall break down. If you do not have a big enough solar system to get your home entirely off the grid, then there is simply no point whatsoever in paying 30 cents per kwh to get electricity via the Powerwall. At night, when you’re not generating solar power, you could simply get your electricity from the grid. For 10 cents a kwh.
the average 6.7 kw system generates 1,400 kWh per kW per year, for total generation from an average system of more like 9,000 kWh per year.
Given that the average home uses 10,800 kwh per year
Sure he has made the battery more efficient however they still don't last long enough to be cost effective. Not only that but what is never mentioned is the cost of solar panels and their installation as well as the other components required to operate a solar power system and convert that DC to AC for your consumption.
$3500: for the battery.
$?: for the solar panels to power the whole house and be off the grid like say FL? (not to speed on cost of them)?
$?: yearly maintenance cost for panels and batter?
$?: Replacement and/or life expectancy costs?