What kind of economy will work when 80% of jobs are lost to automation??

Information.

We just went through, coming out of the Industrial Revolution and now we're about to enter the Information revolution.

Programmers, writers, Artists, Editors, Researchers, Analysts, Data Miners, Designers, Musicians, Entertainers, Fitness instructors, Teachers, Engineers, Garbage men, Recyclers, IT staff, repairmen, etc. This is where our focus will be in the next century. It's already heading there and the list of jobs is endless.

I am currently on contract work welding for a company that builds rail cars, it's probably one of the few places in North America that manufactures rail cars on a full scale. They have facilities to make tank cars, flat beds, hoppers, box cars, double, triple, single stack shipping container cars, you name it.

Now, I am a welder I work on something called a 'turn over' basically the car is clamped into place on either end and it's 'turned' or rather rolled into it's desired position for optimal welding, which is flat.
The machines that do this are almost 80 years old. And they still have equipment from 1912 when the company was first opened, CNC machines, boring machines, even a crane.

But we also have advanced technologies like sub arc welding machines, robot arms for welding, modern CNC machines, you name it. But there is always a human element to the process, even the robots that do the welding people need to inspect it, and fix a lot to customer satisfaction and up to standard and code.
But then there is jobs that a machine would never, ever be able to do, like my job, or a mill wrights job, or a fitters job, the list can go on, if something happens a person is ten times more efficient at solving the problem than a computer would be able to do, because there are so many variables involved (I won't go into detail, just trust me).

In 50 years, I think more jobs will be automated, but the skilled trades won't be the ones getting hurt the most, office jobs will. I actually think skilled trades will be so rare I'd see myself getting a yearly salary by time I am 50.

originally posted by: Plugin
Good question...

More #ty jobs these days, better to have them replaced by robots and automatic systems anyways.

Just look only at groceries, how many people are there working, soon you don't need cashiers, can be become fully automated (already happening for a big part in my country where you don't need a cashier).
And it's good news for groceries, more profit! no healthcare costs and so on.
Before all of this you saw many of the industry moving to low paid country's, this is just another progress in the near time.
At least with robots and so on industry can move back to their own country.

It doesn't have to be a bad thing as long as it serves the people but company's want bigger profits and more.
So basically only a few really benefit where there are fewer jobs and just bigger and less company's.

I think everyone should have a basic income.. if you want more and nice stuff just do what you want/can.
Just face it more and more people can't have normal good pays job these days or even have a hard time just paying for food!, often parttime and just #ty jobs.
Look at the young these days, and especially if you didn't had a good education, you only can have very #ty low paid jobs (when lucky) and they can get rid of you with easy. Even for collecting dirt or the most simple jobs (example), they can even there just choose people with better education or even ask it.
There only change is starting something for themself but when that cost money.. the bank ain't giving it you...

So we should reinvent the economy where more people benefit from it and let robots and automatic systems do these #ty jobs... they can have them anyways.

So like Switzerland where they give every citizen 2500 a month and if you want more you have to work for it??

It's made them the best place to live in the world... Standard of living wise.

Without the intelligence? How about without the passion or desire? Not everyone wants to be an IT geek or a repair man...intelligence certainly isnt the only marker there.
reply to: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: BlueJacket
Without the intelligence? How about without the passion or desire? Not everyone wants to be an IT geek or a repair man...intelligence certainly isnt the only marker there.
reply to: Krazysh0t

Those were just examples. There are other new jobs springing up out there, but the thing is, most of them require a lot of schooling to be hired into them. If you don't have the dedication or money to stick with school so long then sadly, your options are starting to dwindle. That's why I said that the black market will continue to grow. As long as the black market remains, there will be jobs available.

a reply to: Entreri06

This is why I decided to choose the computer field for my occupation, regardless of what is automated and what is not I will always have a job (everything breaks). Hopefully, in time they will learn to pay people what they are worth or nothing at all. The reason I say nothing at all is because if that "20%" is the only area of America/World that will be working what would happen to the other 80%?......Nothing.

Nothing would happen because by the point "we" are able only allow 20% of the world to work while the other 80% do nothing in relation to the labor force is to not have any currency at all, or the entire world would have to be employed only 20% of the time (rotation basis).....so that means extra vacations????

Now that I have your attention due to my previous paragraph's last two words. The way I see it there are only 3 ways to get to this no money world, and yes it would have to be the world because how would any country look like to other countries if they did not have any money and their population wanted to visit?

1. Gradual Training
------This is what is appears to be happening now.

I remember all the stories my father and his father told me about how people were and how they grew up. Where social interaction was needed to live a fruitful life. Now with my generation where the majority of the mid-lifers are more concerned with what is happening on their cell phone, if they missed a tweet, or what happened last night on "random reality show" than what is actually going on in their local city, state, federal government. Let alone what needs to be done to change it in a peaceful manner. My nieces and nephews would prefer to just be left alone with their electronics than actually interact with people. So at the current trend, if people don't like to be social or interact with other humans; 7+ billion people do not play well together.

2. Release Training
.........The first thing that would have to be wiped from the human conscience is greed. Only without greed can their exist a system with no money, no jobs(for the most part), no social positions of power. Any-ism would also have to go, regardless of what has happened in the past or what will happen in the future (if we ever determine how to master time travel). Everybody would be equal, but that is the funny thing about equality, it does not exist in our society or world in ANY level if you want to think about it.

3. Forced Segregated Equality
............This is where they tell you what you do, no choice, no free will, you live here, you do this....or you die.

If anybody has worked or works for any government system, what the public is able to see is usually the most exciting part or the completion of a project (solution 1), then you must consider who's project it really is (insert conspiracy theory here). What if TPTB decide to take the easy route (solution 3). Solution 2 is just a pipe dream because there is no way 7+ billion people are going to let go of their current feelings or preconceived notions about other people and to not want more than your neighbor.


Sorry for the rant, if it belongs somewhere else please tell me. I felt I was on subject for some of my thoughts.

Have a good day everybody

It's simple really.

One with a Lot less people.

originally posted by: Entreri06

originally posted by: peter_kandra
a reply to: Entreri06

Hopefully in the next 50 years, the focus of mankind will switch from the acquisition of wealth to the betterment of humanity.
At that point, capitalism won't be able to exist.

Star Trek socialism baby!! I for one an in!!

I was going to say, some form of socialism seems inevitable...

a reply to: TruthTeller712

Rotated vacations sounds good. Work about 2 or 3 months out of the year, spend the rest of the time on education, seeing the world, and being with family and friends. But they would have to pay you a year's wage, or education, travel and accommodations, food, medical, etc would all have to be just about free. Seems possible with high/green tech developed and/or released.

I don't presume to know what the future will hold. But I would tell anyone to strive to be the best at what they do. As long as there is any demand for the skill or service you have, if you are the best or even better than the average you can probably still make a living. One example that comes to mind is the profession of farrier. With the advent of the automobile, the profession rapidly died out except for the best of the best. Those that remained were still able to make good livings even though their skills no longer had the same demand they did before the automobile.

Double post

originally posted by: Metallicus

originally posted by: Entreri06


I have read that over 80% of jobs will be lost to automation in the next 50 years. Assuming that's true. How will capitalism work if that's the case? How will there be up ward mobility when there are only jobs for 20% of the population? Are we gonna have to find a totally different economic system?

There will always be niche markets. People need to stop relying on other people to give them a job and make one for themselves through entrepreneurship. I don't understand people that are satisfied working for someone else.

You know Metallicus, how hard it is to become an entrepreneur? Not everyone can be one, especially becoming a computer tech or programmer. Good lord, there is a glut on the market already in that field. To become an entrepreneur costs a lot of money and you have to have the skills and know-how besides having a product or service that someone might want. So what's left? What could one make that isn't already mass produced for pennies on the dollar by China, Mexico etc?

It's easy to flip it out there to become an entrepreneur but people need to be realistic. You can't even buy the fabric, thread and buttons to make your own shirt cheaper than you can pick up a completed one from Wally World. You need materials, equipment, a product that people would buy. Oh, service side then it is. Try competing against agencies that know every letter of the law or in fields that governments have placed moratoriums on. I'm not saying it's not possible but short of creating a janitorial service it's difficult. I'm not whining, I have a job. Like I said, people need to be realistic.

originally posted by: 3n19m470
a reply to: TruthTeller712

Rotated vacations sounds good. Work about 2 or 3 months out of the year, spend the rest of the time on education, seeing the world, and being with family and friends. But they would have to pay you a year's wage, or education, travel and accommodations, food, medical, etc would all have to be just about free. Seems possible with high/green tech developed and/or released.

I like splitting the work up amongst everyone, but that still leave half of the population who we will have to pay for without them working.

originally posted by: StoutBroux

originally posted by: Metallicus

originally posted by: Entreri06


I have read that over 80% of jobs will be lost to automation in the next 50 years. Assuming that's true. How will capitalism work if that's the case? How will there be up ward mobility when there are only jobs for 20% of the population? Are we gonna have to find a totally different economic system?

There will always be niche markets. People need to stop relying on other people to give them a job and make one for themselves through entrepreneurship. I don't understand people that are satisfied working for someone else.

You know Metallicus, how hard it is to become an entrepreneur? Not everyone can be one, especially becoming a computer tech or programmer. Good lord, there is a glut on the market already in that field. To become an entrepreneur costs a lot of money and you have to have the skills and know-how besides having a product or service that someone might want. So what's left? What could one make that isn't already mass produced for pennies on the dollar by China, Mexico etc?

It's easy to flip it out there to become an entrepreneur but people need to be realistic. You can't even buy the fabric, thread and buttons to make your own shirt cheaper than you can pick up a completed one from Wally World. You need materials, equipment, a product that people would buy. Oh, service side then it is. Try competing against agencies that know every letter of the law or in fields that governments have placed moratoriums on. I'm not saying it's not possible but short of creating a janitorial service it's difficult. I'm not whining, I have a job. Like I said, people need to be realistic.

Yea man (not pointing specifically at the privious poster) the conservative answer to problems is always some BS that sounds good but has no functional value to the conversation.

Such as "we need more entrepreneurs" or "personal responsibility" or "it's a lack of good parents". Ok well that sounds good but you have put forth zero ideas on how to acheive that goal besides stopping welfare and lowering taxes on (rich) people who we aren't even talking about.

It's like saying the answer to stopping murders is for people to quite killing people... Well duh!!

Have shorter working weeks and more holidays. Increase time people spend in education. More people employed in research and leisure industries that aren't easy to automate.
Automation generally removes the need for boring low skill jobs. The problem isn't too much automation, it is making sure the benefits of automation are more equally shared.

The question is, will humanity digress into utter disparity before changes begin to happen? Seems that the only entity that can make these changes is government. Government is very slow to make changes and usually doesn't act until after the fact.

Don't expect much from the corporate entity, which only sees profit above all else. The only way that corporations can profit without the human consumer is to buy their own products, then resell it to themselves.

a reply to: Entreri06

Hell we already lost that much today due to outsourcing of our industrial base and insourcing of foreign workers.

You mean in 50 years we all be on welfare along with the foreign workers, right?

originally posted by: peter_kandra
a reply to: Entreri06

Hopefully in the next 50 years, the focus of mankind will switch from the acquisition of wealth to the betterment of humanity.
At that point, capitalism won't be able to exist.

I can't think of a lovelier notion but pray tell why would the elites be any more sympathetic towards the masses than they are now? Their wealth is passed down to their children along with their complete lack of empathy and values. Why should they voluntarily give up their wealth for the betterment of all? It looks like the longer we go on the easier it is for them to completely avoid the rest of us.

The irony here is that automation benefits those who own the machines.
The more automation we have the more the elites act like those machines.