posted on Dec, 20 2004 @ 04:15 PM
Hi, new to this forum. I've been lurking, and I enjoyed the "what if.." threads, and I wanted to create a more realistic alternative to the"India
tries to liberate Tibet from China," so I decided to float this idea to everyone.
The quick synopsis - the Maoists are on the verge of winning, and are soon to install a pro-China communist regime, replacing the historically
pro-India Nepalese government. India decides to militarily intervene, and China decides to counter.
(Adapted from Jane's Foreign Report, Nov. 11, 2004)
Maoists are winning
In May 2002, the scale of the Maoist revolt forced panicked politicians to dissolve parliament. King Gyanendra has rotated prime ministers at a rate
of one a year, most recently reinstating Deuba.
Beyond the protective rim of the Kathmandu Valley basin the Maoists control or contest every district. The 72 towns and villages that form the
headquarters of districts beyond the valley are often in a state of practical siege, sometimes supplied by helicopter. Several times, most recently at
Beni in March, the rebels have overrun such outposts in mass-casualty assaults. Similar attacks are likely in the future.
The few major roads are under government control, but insecure. The capital itself could be put under a limited siege if the Maoists attacked the
principal, fragile mountain road that supplies it. This is a strategy they tested with simple threats for five days in August.
As they enter the end game, the Maoists are becoming increasingly concerned about Indian intervention, as well they might. The southern giant is
finally waking up to the Maoist threat. India is supplying guns, helicopters and military vehicles to Nepal. The Maoists are threatening them with
never-ending tunnel warfare if they dare invade.
If India intervened directly, the possibility arises that they might use their Gurkha regiments. The famed infantrymen are drawn from the same stock
as the ineffectual Nepalese army: a vivid illustration of the importance of training and leadership.
Britain and the US have also supplied weapons and training, and Nepal receives generous financial assistance from abroad.
The government has rejected even UN mediation, and would not welcome foreign troops, even Gurkhas. But in the end, it may be their last line of
defence. A Maoist Brigadier, when asked how long it would take to overcome the government, says: "If there is no outside interference it may take two
or three years... if they had not been supplied with weapons the army would have collapsed already."
In the near future (say, spring of 2005), the Nepalese government is days from collapse. Plagued by equipment shortages, and demoralized by a string
of defeats, the Nepalese military and police forces face mass desertion and mutiny. The Maoist rebels are preparing for their final offensive on the
capital and the surrounding areas in the Kathmandu Valley. Hoping to avoid a bitter last-stand urban fight with loyalists, the Maoists issue an
ultimatium, calling for the abdication of the king and unconditional surrender.
India, alarmed by the possibility of another Chinese client state on it's border, goes to the UN to seek intervention, and forestall the fall of the
fall of the current government. All Indian proposals are easily swatted down by China's UNSC veto. Pakistan objects vehemently, arguing that this
"would be a precursor to Indian aggression elsewhere." The US and UK voice support for Indian intervention, while ASEAN, Japan, Russia, and the EU
remain silent. However, Chinese pressure prevents the US and UK from commiting more than token diplomatic and material support.
With only lukewarm US and UK support, India, seeking to "prevent a humanitarian crisis", sends light armor and infantry units to occupy the capital.
They are soon engaged in direct combat with Maoist forces. Despite superior traning and equipment, the Indian army finds itself in a bloody stalemate
with battle-hardened rebels forces employing guerilla tactics. India gradually escalates, committing artillery, air assets, more armor and more
infantry. The Maoists, now unable to win direct confrontations, retreat to the countryside.
In the meantime, China is supporting the insurgency with weapons, air and satellite intelligence, and military observers, effectively fighting a war
with China by proxy. While unofficial, this fact is an open secret to both sides, and both China and India are whipped up into a nationalistic fervor.
The rhetoric grows increasingly harsh as long-standing grievances are brought back into play. The PLA faction of China's leadership itches for war,
and a hawkish elements of the BJP and INC form a pro-war alliance in India.
Finally, an incident happens - Indian fighter-bombers destroy a supply convoy from China bound for Nepal, while the convoy is still in (disputed)
Chinese territory, inflicting twenty PLA casualties. Chinese public sentiment explodes, lionizing the dead as "glorious martyrs." The Chinese
internet is aflame, and Chinese and Indian hackers are already in a all-out cyberwar, critically damaging the operations of government agencies and
It is politically impossible for the Chinese government not to retaliate - the Chinese public will not accept it. The PLA faction is agitating for
war. The US and UK evacuate their Nepalese staff.
What does China do? What is India's response?
Some ground rules:
Please stay on topic. Facts and figures about road infrastructure are fine (as long as their relevance is explained), but cell phone penetration and
McDonalds are probably not.
Please make sure the actions you propose are politically feasible. Among other things, please keep in mind (in no particular order):
1. Beijing Olympics in 2008, Shanghai World Expo in 2010
2. ASEAN's aspiration to be come a influential independent entity.
4. Nepalese popular sentiment - the current government is considered inept and corrupt, while the Maoists are often cruel - arbitary laws, forced
5. Current Indian attempts to become an UNSC member.