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But even predicting the date of an Earthquake within a decade isn't possible yet. The reason why is understandable, there are too many nuanced variables.
They aren't predicting any dates within a decade, they are just assigning probabilities within a decade, which is what I was saying.
By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(∆t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M f = 5.8) and 15 (M f = 6.1).
There's a science to evaluating the accuracy of earthquake predictions, described here:
originally posted by: Rocker2013
To be honest, even getting down to one month in predicting the timing of such an event would lead me to consider some validity to the prediction.
The 11 April 2012, M8.6 and M8.2 earthquakes OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA did confirm an alarm TIP reported in January, in the regular 2010a Update of the M8-MSc predictions of the Global Test of M8 (Healy et al. 1992; password protected URL www.mitp.ru...; yellow outline in the attached figure). The earthquake epicenters missed the reduced area of alarm (red outline) diagnosed in the second approximation due to inapplicability of the MSc algorithm outside bulk distribution of seismic activity. Nevertheless, it appears remarkable that the reduced area is about the same as the area of the 11 April 2012 first-day aftershocks located at about the same latitudes.
originally posted by: chrismir
In the mean while, 150 dolphins beached in Japan.
That happened just before the Fukushima quake and the Christchurch quake as well. Though the timing and location is off, something might be afoot here nevertheless.