Major Winter Storm for Dec 22nd & Dec 23

Louisville has been updated to 3-6 inches now.

Brisk southerly winds have developed which will result in warming temperatures overnight. A mild day expected Tuesday ahead of a major winter storm forecast to hit on Wednesday. Preliminary indications are for a 3-6" snow in Louisville by Thursday. This could change depending upon new data arriving constantly to the WAVE 3 Storm Center. We will update this a number of times prior to the storms onset. Another cold blast is then likely for Christmas behind this storm.

I like how they tacked the disclaimer on at the end of it

I have seen several replies since my post above and was wondering if the weather channel issues different forcasts for different areas. Honest my local weather channel from atalanta is not saying what some of the other posters are claiming.

Must be a conspiracy by those darn forecasters is all I can say.

Shots...I have very little faith in the Weather Channel and their ability to forecast beyond 8 hours.

I just got this in my email and I live on the corner of lake Ontario, Hamilton / Burlington area, but we have no snow it's just very cold - 11 Celsius. but this email claims 22 inches of snow in parts of Indiana and Michigan ?

Old man winter blasts region
City freezes; Indiana gets clobbered

By Glenn Jeffers
Tribune staff reporter
Published December 20, 2004

Lake Michigan and cold Canadian winds merged into a two-headed monster Sunday, dropping temperatures in the Chicago area to their lowest this season and blasting parts of Indiana and Michigan with up to 22 inches of snow.

The lake-effect snowstorm hit LaPorte County, Ind., the hardest, forcing officials to declare a state of emergency and state police to close all lanes of Interstate Highway 94 around Michigan City, 60 miles east of Chicago, because the plows could not keep up with the snowfall, police said. State workers and National Guardsmen were deployed to help stranded highway travelers.

County officials pulled the plows off the roads because of whiteout conditions Sunday afternoon. The plows were back on the roads by Sunday evening, once the heavy snowfall subsided, LaPorte County Commissioner Bill Hager said. State police did not reopen I-94 until after 9:30 p.m.

"Michigan City is just devastated," Hager said. "I heard on WGN [radio] that we could probably get a foot of snow, but I don't think anyone was expecting 2 feet."

Source: www.chicagotribune.com...

Sorry you might have to register for the Chicago Tribune to see the story, registration is free





[edit on 20/12/2004 by Sauron]

A newer AVN model run is available. It has the low at 996 just east of Cincinnati with the high pressure near ND/NE at 1046. The pressure difference between the two has increased to 50mb. This should be a fun ride.

Originally posted by makeitso
Looking like Indy called it right !!! At least for the Indy area.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
144 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

INZ036-037-039>049-051-052-210900-BOONE-CLAY-DELAWARE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-MADISON-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-VIGO - INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...CRAWFORDSVILLE...INDIANAPOLIS...MUNCIE AND TERRE HAUTE 144 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS IN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.

SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE 7 TO 9 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN STILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

Indy news

I think their 7 to 9 inch report was an incorrect report. The NWS website has 5 to 7 inches listed for the 1:44pm report.

Indy, are you getting your maps from the NOAA site? Could you point me the right direction? I'd like to be able to find these charts myself and I hate navigatiang the noaa site

Here are a list of some of the places I get info from.

grads.iges.org...

weather.unisys.com...

twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu...

And of course the boring stuff from ...

www.nws.noaa.gov...

www.weather.com...

and

www.intellicast.com...

My favorite "commercial site"

www.wunderground.com...

Oh, well. So much for the big winter storm. Looks like it got downgraded to a little bit of snow and slush.

Tuesday morning update...
Winter Storm WATCH late tonight through tomorrow.
As a cold front drops south into the Ohio Valley, a storm will form in the Gulf Coastal region and push toward the Ohio Valley. As the two systems meet in the lower Ohio Valley, a significant Winter Storm is likely to develop. The Louisville area is expected to be on the border of the rain/snow line. Thus, heavy snows are possible over southern Indiana while a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow should fall over Kentucky. The storm has the potential to drop 6"-12" of wet snow over southern Indiana. The Louisville area should get a slushy 1"-3" before the snow ends early Thursday.

Hopefully there is enough dry snow on the ground to let me take my daughter sleigh riding.

N.E. Ohio update...

On the local radio this morning, now being reported 2-4 inches tomorrow and more to come overnight on Wed. night Thur. Morning.

Supposed to be 40 here today, then colder tonight and snow tomorrow...

They have now posted a Winter Storm Warning for Louisville KY (where Kidfinger and myself are) and the majority of southern Indiana. I think they have no idea what this thing is going to do until it does it.
One of our local weather guys even said that "I have a degree in meteorology and this is the hardest storm I have had to predict in my 7 years on the job."
Lovely, that might mean we get nothing or 2 feet!

Yeah, Wave 3 is saying 2 to 6 inches now insted of 1 to 3 inches. I think observer is right when he(?) says that these forcasters dont know what they are talking about. These guys couldnt predict a storm if they were standing in it

Its really strange here.. today we hit a very warm high of 65... Now for tomorrow we are on notice... for our area we are to expect that at about 9:00AM that rain will change to freezing rain

Through the day they are calling for about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ICE.. changing to sleet then snow which before midnight should be about 3 to 5 inches all the while temps are dropping to bone chilling cold

Thursday should be nice but with a high in the teens to twenties.. whatever

I don't know about where you all are but for here this will make for a real nasty day... Last time we had weather like this it took me almost 9 hours to get home.. and that is only 17 miles.

This is one time I hope the forcasters are wrong.

Gazz, I feel for you. Nothing worse than crawling home in bumper to bumper traffic in bad weather. Maybe you should just get a room

Here is the current prediction for Western MI, Kalamazoo, MI:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE SNOW BELTS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE LANSING AND JACKSON
AREAS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...SO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. A FARTHER
WEST TRACK COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD...AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LARGE WAVES WILL BE FREQUENT ON LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

link

~~~~~
Indy,
thanks for the links.

[edit on 21-12-2004 by DontTreadOnMe]

Originally posted by Kidfinger
Yeah, Wave 3 is saying 2 to 6 inches now insted of 1 to 3 inches. I think observer is right when he(?) says that these forcasters dont know what they are talking about.

These guys couldnt predict a storm if they were standing in it

Have you ever seen another job that pays people for being wrong all the time? Weather forcasting just sleighs me

I live in NE Ohio, south of Cleveland, east of I-71.

Our area is supposed to get POUNDED. I mean POUNDED. Points west of I-71 are supposed to REALLY get hammered. Points east of I-71 are supposed to get hammered but not as bad. Last time we had a storm like this, it was around 1996 and like this one, it came in from the south. And combine this with the lake-effect snow off Lake Erie.

I'm just glad I got my son a warm coat, snow pants, thermals, boots, and the like! We live less than 3 miles from where my husband works and hopefully we don't go up to a level 3 so he can get to work. Level 3--no one's supposed to be out except for emergency personnel/police.

Wonder if we should try to stock up on stuff? I think we have enough, really...good thing I got my son double packs of diapers and pull-ups!

Just saw the Fox news report and they are calling for as much as 13" of snow for Indianapolis with extensive blowing and drifting. The storm will be followed by very bitter cold air with a low of -10 on Christmas morning. Southern Indiana may see as much as 15+ inches.

I will do my best to take pics and some video. I will be a bit limited with my wife working the 3rd shift as a nurse. She may be stuck at work for a few days. But I will do what I can to get something during the storm.

HEHE They were wrong agian! Rain was supposed to start here at 1 am. It started at 10 pm This storm hit 3 hours earlier than predicted. I wonder how this will change the rest of the forcast?

This storm could prove to be a forecasters nightmare. Its coming in two pieces. That gives you two chances to hose a forecast. It makes it hard to tell what kind of transition you will have between the two systems. This could turn out worse than expected. A great deal of moisture is being brought north and is being introduced to very cold air. This snow can really fluff up. If you predict .8 inches of liquid and you end up getting 1.25 inches of liquid its really no big deal . But when the air is very cold and you are getting better than a 10 to 1 ration on snow to liquid you might be looking at a 7"+ mistake in the forecast.

We have a Winter Storm Watch for Western NY.....NOAA says 3 - 6 inches of snow, then sleet to freezing rain, to rain briefly, then back to snow, followed by Lake Effect Snow Thursday night - Saturday Morning!! It also says the storm track is still not certain, so if the storm is more to our west, we will get less snow and more rain, but if the storm is more to the east, we will get more ice and a lot more snow....It also says areas to the south and east of Buffalo will have much less snow, and a lot more rain, while Buffalo and Erie and Niagara Counties will have much more snow.... Also, if the winds align to the Southwest after the storm passes, Buffalo could get walloped with snow....We get the full fetch of the lake when the winds are from the southwest and we get 5 - 6 inches per HOUR when the lake is in the 40s!! Sounds like a white christmas in the works (hopefully)!! I will keep everyone posted!!