Major Winter Storm for Dec 22nd & Dec 23

Last night I pulled up for the forcast models for this week and I had just chalked the results up to a bad run. When I looked this morning the results were the same. What I am seeing is the worst case scenario for a storm track and at the worst possible time. There is a low pressure system developing out west that will track down to the gulf coast of Texas before making its move to the north and east. This very southerly track will allow the storm to grab incredible amounts of moisture before moving north. And with this system there is a very large pool of arctic air poised to move down behind it. If the models keep this together for another run I'd expect at minimum to see winter storm watches posted for parts or all of the Ohio Valley. I'm not sure yet if there will be enough wind with this system to justify a blizzard rating. The snowfall totals however may be at record levels. Totals may very well be measured in feet. From what I see so far don't be shocked to receive 12 to 24 inches of snow from this system. I am including some forecast model snap shots so you can see the evolution of this incredible storm system.

Those were the MRF model plots. Here are the AVN model plots.

Here is what the AVN model plot looks like in an easier to understand format. AT the bottom is the snowfall bars. Its represented in liquid precipitation so to get the actual snowfall amount you multiply it by 10. However with the very cold ari moving in the numbers later in the storm may require it to be multiplied by 15+ as cold air fluffs up snow more. This model plot is for Indianapolis, IN.

ok, and for the humans out there..

who is getting socked and with how much?


should we cancel christmas?

Im thinking if you drew a line that connected Evansville, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Columbus, OH and Cleveland, OH you'd find the bad stuff to the north and west of that line. I'd guess there would be a heavy snow belt in the range of 75 to 125 miles from that line. There will be much more snow covering a much larger area but this path is where you may see well inexcess of a foot of snow. Some places may see locally two feet.

Keep in mind that forecast models are known to change. But since you have basicall 2-1/2 days notice there isn't much room for error.

YAY.... I'm in Toledo OH....

I hope we get a lot of snow !!! Bring it on !


Indy... do you work in this field or is it just a hobby ?

you sound like you know what you're talking about ?

Its a hobby. But I know the material very well I figure why ruin a good thing by turning it into a job. lol

so the east coast is clean?

bummer

I like snow. But I buess because of lake effects , we don't get that much snow. I will see what happens on 22nd & 24rd.

[edit on 20-12-2004 by netscape]

Immediate east coast looks fine. But keep in mind this storm could potentially disrupt once of the busiest jet corridors in the world. The from Chicago to Cincinnati and up to Detroit is very heavily traveled. Anything going on in there will cause significant travel delays. You could see hundreds of delayed and cancled flights.

Indy,

They're even saying we have an outside chance of snow on the 23rd here in Indian Territory! rare occurrence and I hope it happens.

my wife is travelling from Amstradem on Christmas eve. I hop everything goes sommth by that time.

Christmas in Amsterdam!

Great thread Indy!

Looks like the makings of a nasty winter ahead.

Where is the global warming when you need it?

We had wind chills here in the single digits this morning.. that just ain't right!

Well, I'm gonna be looking at my weather sites, accuwather and weather underground and compare their forecasts with yours. I live in the near northern suburbs of Detroit.
If you end up being the closest, will you be my personal weather forecaster? Or, how about the ATS weatherman?

hey guys...

let's remember to report back in, on this thread on the 22nd and 23rd to update the amount of snow ( if any ) that you got in your area !

Indy... keep bumping this thread, so that it stays at the top of the page, as a reminder to the rest of us..


oooohhhhh I'm getting excited, I love the snow !!!

I can help with that, Elevatedone. I'm a weather watcher, in a very amateur way, and can't wait to see how this tracks and how the "real" weather folks react. (the weather channel is basically useless, IMHO)

well... here's what the weather channel is saying today about my area...

Today
Dec 20 Flurries 19�/16� 20 %

Tue
Dec 21 Scattered Flurries 39�/23� 20 %

Wed
Dec 22 Snow 26�/22� 80 %

Thu
Dec 23 Snow Shower 29�/12� 40 %

local weather stations are saying 1-3" of snow tonight...

I don't believe anything until I see it.

All predictions are useless. For my area it was showing 19�/17� but morning only we had temperature of -1� F & with wind chill it was like -13. I don't trust weather.com much anyways

Today Dec 20 Light Snow 18�/15� 60 %

Tue Dec 21 Flurries 37�/23� 20 %

Wed Dec 22 Snow 26�/24� 70 %

Thu Dec 23 Snow Shower 32�/13� 40 %

.

Originally posted by elevatedone
well... here's what the weather channel is saying today about my area...

Today
Dec 20 Flurries 19�/16� 20 %

Tue
Dec 21 Scattered Flurries 39�/23� 20 %

Wed
Dec 22 Snow 26�/22� 80 %

Thu
Dec 23 Snow Shower 29�/12� 40 %

local weather stations are saying 1-3" of snow tonight...

I don't believe anything until I see it.

Great thread Indy!

We might have a white Christmas. Hoorah.

It's -5 Here.

With 92% humidity.

Well, Im in the Ohio Valley, and all we have so far is a chance of rain on wensday, and snow flerries and a small chance for a small snow shower on Thursday. Thats according to our local weatehr man John Belski Of course, it would be cool to get 2 feet of snow agian. Back in 1996, we got 2 feet, and in 1994 we got 18 inces. In 94' all of Louisville was shut down for a week. The weathermen said it would be a little snow fall, 2-4 inches, but it never stopped! for two days it snowed a blizzard. Luckly, I was finishing up my tour in the Navy out in Long Beach CA. I wasnt so lucky in 96

[edit on 12/20/04 by Kidfinger]