All employees of the Russian Embassy in London have left?

originally posted by: Indigent
ATS logic: Russia is planing a secret attack on the west, therefore its removing personal to save their life...

If you are planing an attack with the potential retaliatiation of wiping out your entire country of the map, you simply dont risk to ruin the surprise element to save a few hundred people.

I don't think Russia is planning a secret attack on the West. I think at most there is some kind of internal confusion at present. I understand that Putin may be attending the birth of a love child, but that doesn't explain the amount of confusion that appears to be left in his absence. Can he really not either leave a competent set of orders for his absence or phone something in?

originally posted by: ketsuko

originally posted by: Indigent
ATS logic: Russia is planing a secret attack on the west, therefore its removing personal to save their life...

If you are planing an attack with the potential retaliatiation of wiping out your entire country of the map, you simply dont risk to ruin the surprise element to save a few hundred people.

I don't think Russia is planning a secret attack on the West. I think at most there is some kind of internal confusion at present. I understand that Putin may be attending the birth of a love child, but that doesn't explain the amount of confusion that appears to be left in his absence. Can he really not either leave a competent set of orders for his absence or phone something in?

Exactly! The Russian system has become so centered on Putin's narcissistic personality cult that the entire country grinds to a halt if something unexpected happens to him. If he were a competent leader, he would have made contingency provisions, as it is, he actually seems to believe his publicity: Putin is a superman who does not get ill, who is always in absolute command of every situation. There is no need for a "Plan B," Putin will always be in charge.

Hopefully, the Russian people will learn from this episode.

Well after reading tons of crap I thought it was far quicker to do the most easy thing possible, ask the Russian Embassy for a statement, they deny the claims and say it is quote "Not True"

I like the way you think! That would be the news to end all news and the Western world would be caught with its pants down. What if the quiet on our end (lack of news coverage) is in and of itself strategy?

Let's hope not.

a reply to: Bigburgh

originally posted by: ketsuko

originally posted by: Indigent
ATS logic: Russia is planing a secret attack on the west, therefore its removing personal to save their life...

If you are planing an attack with the potential retaliatiation of wiping out your entire country of the map, you simply dont risk to ruin the surprise element to save a few hundred people.

I don't think Russia is planning a secret attack on the West. I think at most there is some kind of internal confusion at present. I understand that Putin may be attending the birth of a love child, but that doesn't explain the amount of confusion that appears to be left in his absence. Can he really not either leave a competent set of orders for his absence or phone something in?

The smoking gun here is the lack of preparation.

Several media companies in Russia have been caught out publishing prefabricated stories about meetings that Putin didn't attend. This shows several things.
First, we now know that the Kremlin issues stories for publication across Russian media, and that these stories about planned meetings are issued in advance. They've published several and then been forced to remove them when it was made clear that the planned meetings never happened.

Second, this shows that whatever has happened to Putin was unexpected, otherwise the Kremlin would have created stories and media to cover any period of absence. They would have filmed segments with Putin a month ago, created documents to sign and meetings to be had which could then be published while he was absent to give the impression that he's still working.

The fact that we know the media has been publishing pre-planned stories as if the meetings went ahead, and the fact that the Kremlin hasn't offered anything in advance of a planned absence, shows that whatever has happened to Putin was not expected.

This therefore rules out the birth of a love child, plastic surgery, a medical procedure or a holiday. If we were absent for any of these reasons the Kremlin would have cleared his schedule of all the most vital things (or simply not created them to begin with) and then manufactured a cache of content to be released while he was unavailable.

This all lends further credence to the idea that Putin has been incapacitated. He's either ill, dead, or been overthrown.

a reply to: Rocker2013

Excellent analysis. It is probably also significant that Medvedev has not dared step forward to assure everyone that everything will transition smoothly if the worst case scenario should happen.

originally posted by: Rocker2013
This is becoming a little tiresome now.

There's still no actual evidence of any Russian embassy being emptied.
There's still no evidence of this fictitious Tweet supposedly reporting a coming announcement.

And yet, here we all are, discussing things that are not real as if they're entirely proven.
It's disappointing to me. I remember a time when people here would actually look at sources, trace them back, find the source and present it, or dismiss it, rather than simply accept it as being valid.

Anyone else remember those days? Oh how I miss them!

I guess you also failed to read my OP where I put disclaimers in. If you don't like it then why are you posting or even reading about it? Are you just one of those that has to give your opinion on something to feel better?

Either way, I clearly stated in the very first post that this was from a tweet and I did not know the validity. The fact is that something IS going on at the Kremlin and the post about the London Embassy has not been disproven....as you keep claiming. So your argument is as valid as the OP....may as well be a post on a conspiracy forum....oh....wait....it is.

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: Rocker2013

Excellent analysis. It is probably also significant that Medvedev has not dared step forward to assure everyone that everything will transition smoothly if the worst case scenario should happen.

It makes me wonder where the failure in communication is.

Lets look at this analytically...

We know that news sites and companies have been publishing stories about meetings that never actually happened and they've been forced to admit that these stories were preplanned and the events never actually happened.

This suggests that the Kremlin writes content in advance, then sends out the content on a specified date. It seems unlikely that the Kremlin would risk sending out such a thing before the meeting was due to happen, because it risks the exposure of false and preemptive reporting. So we can assume that the Kremlin creates the content, waits for the event to happen, and immediately sends the glowing information to the media company.

The media company publishes it, because they're obedient.

It seems to me that these companies had received these reports as normal, and didn't know what to do with them. They had no choice but to publish them and hope that the meetings did actually happen. It then transpires that they didn't, so they were forced to retract them.

This suggests that whatever body within the Kremlin responsible for media relations is entirely in the dark, and just going about their jobs as if nothing has happened. This therefore suggests that they are not receiving information or instructions to halt. Or at least they weren't.

Whatever department in the Kremlin is responsible for media and press releases was kept entirely in the dark about what was happening there, and this again suggests that Putin has been incapacitated in one way or another. It actually also suggests that there was a loss of control within the Kremlin which lasted for more than just a couple of days.

Someone in Putin's circle would have known what was happening, and would have stopped those press releases from being sent. The fact that no one did that for a couple of days (at least) is extremely telling. This in itself is indicative of chaos within the walls of the Kremlin.

I like your logic Rocker2013

originally posted by: Vasa Croe

originally posted by: Rocker2013
This is becoming a little tiresome now.

There's still no actual evidence of any Russian embassy being emptied.
There's still no evidence of this fictitious Tweet supposedly reporting a coming announcement.

And yet, here we all are, discussing things that are not real as if they're entirely proven.
It's disappointing to me. I remember a time when people here would actually look at sources, trace them back, find the source and present it, or dismiss it, rather than simply accept it as being valid.

Anyone else remember those days? Oh how I miss them!

I guess you also failed to read my OP where I put disclaimers in. If you don't like it then why are you posting or even reading about it? Are you just one of those that has to give your opinion on something to feel better?

Either way, I clearly stated in the very first post that this was from a tweet and I did not know the validity. The fact is that something IS going on at the Kremlin and the post about the London Embassy has not been disproven....as you keep claiming. So your argument is as valid as the OP....may as well be a post on a conspiracy forum....oh....wait....it is.

So because I prefer to see evidence of something my opinion is not valid?
Are only those who support your opinions permitted to discuss something on a forum?
Why are you so threatened by the suggestion that someone might have a difference of opinion?

Like it or not, this is a discussion forum, and we are discussing what is potentially happening in Moscow right now, and you are not the only one whose opinion is worthy of being seen.

The notion that I should just "shut up and go away" for daring to not believe something that's not been proven is arrogant in the extreme.

I have an opinion, and I have expressed it, I have just as much right as you to do so.
I'm sorry if you feel offended by my reluctance to tow the conspiracy line and simply accept unconfirmed reports, but I'm not going to just accept what some believe because they demand I do so.

originally posted by: PhantomMark
I like your logic Rocker2013

Thanks

I do try to think logically and present informed opinions, but it obviously ruffles a few feathers when their dramatic conspiracies are confronted

a reply to: Rocker2013

Another intriguing point is that this follows so closely on the heels of the assassination of Nemtsov. It was done in a way that even those with blinders on have to admit made Putin the prime suspect; perhaps it was a frame up after all. Nemtsov was a retired high ranking official. The "rules" in Russia make killing former officials forbidden; it would set a precedent that would make everyone unsafe should they themselves fall from power. Perhaps that was the real message here: "Even if you resign, you will be held accountable...."

...But on the other hand, isn't one of the strategies of warfare to sow confusion in the ranks of the enemy? It does distract from the 'Putin killed his enemy and is running the investigation himself' scandal. If the removal of embassy staff further adds to the confusion, then could it not be deliberate in order to unsettle the Kremlin watchers and observe them as they run around?

No one is running around. a reply to: aboutface

a reply to: DJW001

Well the way I see it is that the West and Russia are not exactly in a state of détente. That would mean that like the proverbial duck in the water, there is hardly a ripple on the surface of the water, yet there is a lot of paddling underneath.

a reply to: DJW001

Very astute. Here is a scenario: Putin has been harvesting and favoring loyal oligarchs and local potentates and warlords. Putin gets loyalty and an economic cut, and the locals get freedom from prosecution and use of state power against their rivals.

That was the deal. Now though with the sanctions and the war in Ukraine, some of these oligarchs have been hurt substantially for what appears to be the political benefit of Putin alone. Putin was internally gaining ever more power, ambition and arrogance. They see what happens to oligarchs who fall out of favor and thought they could be next; accused of treason if they don't favor a militaristic policy which would hurt them economically.

So, they do a freelance hit on Nemtsov, without Putins OK. By killing an opponent it serves two purposes, first it obviously gets rid of a reformer who would also investigate the corrupt oligarchs, but it also sends a partially threatening message to Putin: "ok, we are still on your side generally but dont try to alter the terms of the deal."

Putin gets KGB paranoid and escalates, and they escalate back....

rusmonitor.com...

It might be worth pointing out that they are not saying the whole embassy was evacuated, just that the defence attaches have all left...

That would explain why no one is sure who is in charge, and why the FSB is being called home from the embassies. (If that rumor is true.) reply to: mbkennel

a reply to: ScientificRailgun

Would love to.

Got a couple of grand spare so I can go to the Maldives.

I have not had a holiday for 10 years, all donations welcome.

It seems more likely he's alive. Think about it, nemstov died and was all over the media. They couldn't keep it quiet thus why Putin had such a quick response, nemstov apparently didn't have as much support as Putin, of course that's what the Kremlin says, but you have to think if he was dead wouldn't they announce it immediately? It's not like people wouldn't care if their president was assassinated. My guess is some sort of proof of something insinuating a great decision. Such as maybe some proof that our forces are training insurgents in Ukraine based on the premise that they helping training defense forces. Meanwhile with the investigation of nemstov, the FSB or the Kremlin could have evidence of foreign parties being part of it. Thus allowing for a major announcement of war, after all what would they have to fear? they might be able to prove nemstov was a political assassination, thus a very good reason to go to war with whatever countries involved having full backing from the country as they play the victim, think about it parade stadiums being built in red square, major announcement, media blackout, looks like he may be rolling tanks and troops in Hitler fashion as he declares war. Why would they be scared of declaring if their the victim? Keep in mind Kazakhstan is visited on Monday and they have massive oil deposits untapped, China already has a pipeline there so it would be a sign of good faith on the Russians to protect their supply of oil for China while getting some of their own diverted from those reservea as part of the deal to drive the Russian and Chinese war machine.

Obviously, what I can come up with. Take it with a grain of salt.