posted on Mar, 2 2015 @ 09:47 AM
Why the rise in earthquakes? Methane increase in the atmosphere is trapping heat, which it does at 25 times the rate of carbon dioxide. That extra
heat is causing Arctic ice to melt, which, when tons of ice retreats it relieves pressure on the tectonic plates below and at the same time, the extra
water that was ice adds to sea level rise which then causes tons of extra weight to be placed on those much more fragile plates under the sea, again
causing pressure on the tectonic plates, in both cases, causing an increase in seismic activity.
According to McGuire’s theory, there may be some evidence to this in the past when our last Ice Age ended, large ice sheets covering much of the
planet retreated. They were so heavy that the resulting release of pressure on the earth’s crust caused it to ‘bounce back’ triggering
earthquakes, tremors, and even volcanic activity.
Jonny at jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com also presents his own theory similar to McGuire’s, which he calls Mass-Induced Seismic
Amplification (MISA) Theory. Jonny presented this in December of 2010 as he first stumbled upon the issue of methane and hydrogen sulfide gases. I
will let him explain it here in his own words.
Jonny Mnemonic, Dec. 25, 2010
I see a different problem than the ones most people are talking about these days - possibly catastrophic. I came up with a theory a few years ago
based on the principle of reservoir-induced seismicity. Because all theories should be predictive, I made this prediction: the world would see an
increasing number of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. As predictions go, that looks dead-on - according to usgs.gov, the number of earthquakes in
the U.S. has increased by roughly 90% over 2009 and about 120% over 2008. In other words, the rate of increase is itself increasing, the curve looking
rather hyperbolic if you chart the data in Excel, which I have done for you, above.
Going back to 1990 there were NO years where we had 4000+ quakes in the States...until 2009, when we had 4264. I thought about posting this last year,
but since the new 'top' in 2009 wasn't THAT much higher than the previous one, I decided to wait for better confirmation, so as not to be alarmist.
I was still hoping I was wrong at that point. This year we are rapidly closing in on 8000 quakes, though I doubt we will get there before Jan 1. That
is truly a frightening spike. I predicted it, I was expecting an increase, but...wow, not like that. It's unquestionably time to be alarmed now.
Basically, I proposed a simple concept: that a gram of water in a dam's reservoir weighs the same as a gram of water off the coast of Japan (or
California, or Indonesia, whatever), and if weight in a dam's reservoir can cause earthquakes (and clearly they can and sometimes do), then
introducing extra mass to new areas globally would increase seismic instability globally.
Where is all the extra mass coming from? Well, most of it, obviously, from melted ice, quadrillions of tons. The entire planet looks different from
orbit now compared to what it once looked like. Now, I'm not saying some extra water mass can make a completely geologically inactive area do
anything. But a LOT of volcanoes and tectonics just need a little extra pressure to blow. Also, most of the ice is melting away from thick continental
plates and is ending up in the oceans, where the plates are much thinner and therefore more sensitive.
The oceans are the planet's reservoir. The vast amounts of ice that are melting off the land are filling up that reservoir. Essentially, MISA Theory
is very similar to the concept behind Reservoir-Induced Seismicity, but on a global scale and with three differences: 1) nobody did a geological
survey of the reservoir area to make sure that the added mass wouldn't cause problems, as is always done with dams; 2) the plates under the oceans
are far more fragile than those beneath any land-based reservoir; and 3) this reservoir cannot be drained to relieve pressure.
POSTULATE ONE: The global mass redistribution that is occurring is the proximate (direct) cause of the increase in seismic activity being experienced
across the world.
If you extrapolate the numbers and just go with the last year's rate of increase in quakes in the U.S., then by 2020 we'd be experiencing more than
1 million quakes per year instead of the more normal 3500-ish. Not a huge number of giant quakes, mostly greatly increased numbers of small-to-medium
quakes. But globally big quakes are also up, about 25%. If that rate also kept increasing then we'd go from around 12-15 big quakes per year globally
now to more like 150 or so per year by 2020.
Clearly, we must hope and pray that that curve levels off very soon. Unfortunately there is no reason to expect that it will. It will probably get
worse. But who can know? I do know this: bell curves rule the universe and that looks like the beginning of a bell curve to me, one with a
terrifyingly steep upslope. Danger, Will Robinson!
Volcanic activity is way up this year too, presumably for the same reason: they're being squeezed around the edges by newly introduced - and
relentlessly increasing - water mass and the ones closest to eruption are popping like giant magma-spewing zits. As more mass flows to the oceans, I
expect this to get increasingly worse. Or better, if you like volcanic eruptions.
Here's a factoid: each square mile of water that is one meter deep weighs 5,709,917,475 pounds. Not quite 6 billion pounds. Now you're thinking,
well, we don't have one meter of sea level rise yet. That's true. But realize, sea level rise is not the same from area to area. Some areas have
higher amounts than the average, some lower. It's possible that we're creeping up on that amount in some areas already. In any case, the process is
ongoing, the mass flowing in continuously, month after month, year after year.
Think about your average volcano sticking out of the ocean. It may have 100 square miles (10x10 miles) where added mass could have some effect. So if
the sea level around that volcano is increased by one meter then the amount of newly-introduced weight affecting that volcano is 570 billion pounds.
If it was 99% of the way to blowing its top already then that might just be plenty to push it over the edge. The same is true of faults, except their
area is often much larger.
POSTULATE TWO: All faults and volcanoes have tipping points. The more mass that is added to the oceans, the more of those tipping points we will
reach, and the more seismic activity we will experience, particularly in the oceans and near coastal areas. This is happening now.
That's all there is to it. Two short and sweet postulates. My fear is that my theory is, in fact, correct. That was certainly an accurate prediction.
Worse, I fear the possibility that the escalation continues. Just a few years of escalation like this past years and that alone could cause some
serious problems with maintaining the civilization we have. If things start getting knocked down faster than we can repair them, then we're
Avoidance of the problem is out - it's happening now. Effective mitigation will be extraordinarily difficult. Yet we must try everything. Other than
that, we will have only adaptation and suffering.