Inner Kremlin leak exposes deep Mistrust of Putin

The Kremlin has always been an opaque, walled off fortress of Russia's elite. However Putin's inner circle has always been so secretive it makes the Kremlin look like the tourist center it now is.

Putin's KGB roots clearly run strong in his desire to keep decisions secret. So much so that Kremlin 'Tea Leaves' readers simply assume any 'leak' has been authorized. That changed today with a nasty leak from deep withing Putin's inner circle.

www.novayagazeta.ru...
in Russian

www.nytimes.com...
English review of leak

The last and most independant Russian newpaper has published a report claiming that the take over of Crimea was planned well in advance of the Ukrainian leader Yanukovich being ousted in a revolution. The story claims that Konstantin Malofeev authored a paper that outlined the imminent demise of Yakukovich and the best strategy for Russia to take in the ensuing chaos. That plan included quickly grabbing Crimea and establishing statelets in Eastern Ukraine. Denials followed the report being published of course.

Now it is little surprise that Russia planned to grab Crimea before the Ukrainian president abandoned his country. Russian solders were in Crimea only a couple days later...barely enough time to remove the Russian patches on their uniforms! This leak says the plan took shape about 3 weeks prior to Yanukovich fleeing. That isn't much time to implement a stealth invasion, but it seems possible.

The real surprise is the leak of this information and it seeing the light of day in a Russian newspaper. It has been almost a year now since Crimea was annexed by Russia and a leak of this magnitude hasn't surfaced. Needless to say the Russian media is heavily controlled. Some unknown Oligarch leaked this explosive report and another well known Oligarch published it. This is treason of the highest order in Putin's Russia.

This is likely the best evidence of a deep split between some Oligarchs and Putin. Rumors that Putin had shrunk his inner circle to cut out dissenting voices are likely true. Shrinking the circle of knowledge is a simple way to keep secrets safer. However the open challenge to keeping secrets will not go unpunished by Putin.

While this leaked report isn't damaging enough to seriously hurt Putin's public image inside Russia it clearly is a shot across the bow for Putin. He has made very powerful enemies inside Russia and they can reach out and hurt him. Going public being one of the worst.

I personally thought that Putin was safe enough in power to remain Russian leader after the Ukraine crisis is settled. Now I am questioning that ability. Further actions damaging Putin inside Russia would likely signal his removal as Russian leader sooner rather than later.

Winter may be gripping Moscow tightly right now...but it's getting hot inside the Kremlin!

a reply to: noeltrotsky

I can see that the start of paragraph 3 will soon read: "But a report in Novaya Gazeta, one of the few independent voices, which until recently was still publishing in Russia..."

It seems like Putin knew something was on the horizon with a broken country and just decided to "get his" while it was easy.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Well... if someone can take out Putin without setting the world on fire... it's the Russians.

Whoever dares to make a move better have the people behind them though... one civil war in Eastern Europe is more than enough I think

Cracks in the Putin mystique are appearing over his over reach of powers.
There should be no surprise that Putin planned these land grabs all out in advance. Wonder where he will land grab next, history shows Hitler couldn't stop taking land candy once he got a taste of how easy it was in an environment of appeasement.

Might be true or could be just part of a plan in case something happened ,like what did happen .

What do you reckon is the date of this Reuters News Agency dispatch? I’ve slightly doctored one or two things in it, but only to conceal the date.

‘Elected officials in the Crimea voted on Monday to hold a referendum to resolve heated debates on the future status of the region.

‘A Moscow news agency said the regional council voted to issue a declaration restoring the Crimea's "statehood" and also to hold a vote to determine the future of the attractive peninsula on the shores of the Black Sea.

‘Moscow television suggested the referendum could take place early next February. It said the region, part of the Ukraine but with a large population of ethnic Russians and other groups, was sharply divided between maintaining its present status or rejoining the Russian Federation.’

Well, it was 12th November 1990, nearly a quarter of a century ago. And it forms the opening page in a fascinating file compiled for me by a friend and colleague in Moscow.

www.informationclearinghouse.info... The piece is a good read and it's not hard to see what what happened in the Crimea may have been what was going to eventually happen anyway .

a reply to: TinfoilTP

Everyone who has a border with Russia should be very concerned (not that everyone else shouldn't). As always, it is the lack of a principled stance combined with a real, substantial and committed policy of military support for our allies that has provoked this. Peaceful coexistence is only possible with peaceful coexistors.

I never thought our NATO allies would ever doubt our convictions until now.

Many are stepping up though.

Lithuania to reinstate conscription amid Russia fears

a reply to: noeltrotsky

That's interesting. Saw in a 3sat(German, Austria, Suisse) docu the other day, how all his money will potenitially be gone, if finally some of his allies realise that is not the way to behave as a "modern" civilsation, with all the physical violence and such.
Sure with this I am inviting people saying But the USA are also...
Yes they are. And no country is free from corruption, but still there are some standards and some are worse than others.
I mean I envy Americans every day because it still is the most attractive country, social wise speaking.
You guys have issues that's not to deny, but I love the freedom of speech, I love guns and can have none here, you are the biggest culture-producing company in the world and that's for a reason, because you basically already are the world. Combined from all the years of immigration you are the melting pot of human evolution. Russia? Who'tf is Russia?

Somehow not all his cronies were immune and unaffected by the imposed sanctions. Therefore it's kind of difficult to believe that there would not be some former pals of his who would be mad as all get out at the moment. Such dissent and leaks are to be expected, imho. However, I would not be placing any bets on their continued safety and immunity from further harm.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Found this while searching the story

Goble has falsified the facts. Nowhere in this interview or anywhere else does Muratov say this. He in fact said: "This document, which purportedly was prepared by a group of people, in which, purportedly, participated the well-known oligarch, a man, who stole credit in VTB (VneshTorgBank or the Foreign Trade Bank), who is close to AFK ‘Sistema’ (a major Russian hiolding company), a person who is the creator of his own large foundation – I have in mind that Orthodox Christian, major oligarch Konstantin Malofeev… (interviewer interrupts) … Someone from his circle, I think, that people (in his circle) have greater opportunity than he to go to the administration of the president, to the Kremlin, and they brought this scenario of possible events there”

Again Goble has falsified Muratov’s claims: In fact, Muratov said nothing about the document being drafted ‘in the Kremlin.’ He said: "We can presuppose that this (the occurrence of the drafting) was in the period approximately from 4 to 15 February 2014, and there had still not been any overthrow of Yanukovich” (Russian: "Мы можем предположить, что это в период приблизительно от 4 до 15 февраля 2014 года, еще никакого свержения Януковича нет” – seeecho.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1494328-echo/). - See more at: m.liveleak.com...

m.liveleak.com...

a reply to: noeltrotsky

This again? Really come on,you think all major countries don't have contingency plans and what if scenarios? If you want to get into the Crimea argument again well here is something to think about:

Whether you like the source or not,this is easy enough to verify that several times in the past Crimea HAS voted to become part of Russia before anything happened on the Maiden last year.

www.informationclearinghouse.info...

So putting this into perspective,if in the past Crimea has voted to go with Russia,it would only make sense that if Russia wanted Crimea it would have a plan of action to bring them into the fold. This doesn't sound like anything nefarious to me at all. As I said,our country and all others have back up plans of action in case of different things unfolding. This is standard.They are only making a big deal out of it because it is Russia and Crimea. But Crimea has shown in the past the whole time that it wanted to go back to Russia,so,nothing to see here.

I would further add that the double standard be dropped. I mean the standard that when it comes to the Nuland/Pyatt conversation on an unsecured line about putting 'Yaks" in office was just a in case of situation,but when its Russia its 'they planned it all along' nonsense. I don't care which standard you use,just use only one on both.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

All nations have various plans for all kinds of scenarios. I'll bet there are at least three plans in a filing cabinet in the US detailing what should be done if Canada is invaded by Russia, or there's a revolution in the UK.

Having said that, seeing such a plan would usually mean that it was in the top of the pile, these many thousands of game plans don't usually end up anywhere other than a basement filing cabinet covered in dust until one day someone discovers them and gets permission to put it into a historical context for academic reasons.

We'll know soon enough whether it was genuine (and if someone on the inside leaked it, it probably isn't just one of many reasonable contingency plans to have, it would have been activated or never seen). The paper will likely be shut down or otherwise seized, and those suspected of leaking it will likely have to flee the country or wind up dead.

The basic point is that we don't know if it's genuine. I think we'll find out soon enough though.

originally posted by: Dimithae
a reply to: noeltrotsky

This again? Really come on,you think all major countries don't have contingency plans and what if scenarios?

While we don't know if this story is true, we do know that each government likely has thousands upon thousands of scenarios on file, written by highly-paid think tanks, members of government and military strategists, and because we know there are thousands of them it's reasonable to think that if it is genuine it was in use.

You and I both know that these scenarios end up filed away, they don't sit on the desks of everyone in government unless they are being reviewed or considered for operations.

I agree that we should be cautious of double standards, and we cannot claim that one thing must be true because it suits our opinion (there's enough of that from the opposing side) but we can't just ignore the fact that if this is real and was leaked, it was not simply filed away with thousands of other plans.

originally posted by: TinfoilTP
Cracks in the Putin mystique are appearing over his over reach of powers.
There should be no surprise that Putin planned these land grabs all out in advance. Wonder where he will land grab next, history shows Hitler couldn't stop taking land candy once he got a taste of how easy it was in an environment of appeasement.

Agree 100%.

a reply to: the2ofusr1

Sorry, I won't read information clearing house. I don't have hip waders and the BS is far too deep there. There is no doubt Crimea has some Russian history...along with other cultures. Hell I was touring some ancient Greek ruins in Crimea personally.

originally posted by: sosobad
m.liveleak.com...

Good find.

I understand this story tries to create some distance between Muratov and the invasion planning document. Personally I don't buy it because Muratov has been funding key Pro Russian Separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine early on in the conflict.

I think Putin put out the question what to do with this idiot Yanukovich after he had to lend him $3 Billion to keep him afloat. Muratov and his people put together this action plan document that basically says Yanukovich is an idiot, stop supporting him, let Ukraine fall in chaos, snatch Crimea because it's got some value and is easily defendable, set up independent statlets in E. Ukraine to divide the country and keep the EU and NATO out.

After reading the document Putin agreed and went with the plan. That's my thought's so far but it's early so more info might come out.

i think we have enough crazy tabloid news to keep up with here in America , no need to put energy into Russia's as well

a reply to: Rocker2013

It wouldn't be filed away if the anti-Putin people in Russia were looking for something to try to cause trouble with.Just like here,you have those that will go too enormous lengths to make a mountain out of a mole hill. I still think this is nothing but a tempest in a tea pot. As has been pointed out here,Crimea has wanted to join Russia for years,going so far as to vote on it. If we knew that someone wanted to join us,we would have a plan waiting for them too.

Wasn't there a thread about this 4 days ago?

Hardly breaking news.

originally posted by: DrChinstrap
Wasn't there a thread about this 4 days ago?

Hardly breaking news.

The link I posted is dated today, but you might have missed that.

originally posted by: Dimithae
a reply to: Rocker2013

It wouldn't be filed away if the anti-Putin people in Russia were looking for something to try to cause trouble with.Just like here,you have those that will go too enormous lengths to make a mountain out of a mole hill. I still think this is nothing but a tempest in a tea pot. As has been pointed out here,Crimea has wanted to join Russia for years,going so far as to vote on it. If we knew that someone wanted to join us,we would have a plan waiting for them too.

I'm sorry, you can't possibly believe that people critical of the Kremlin can just walk in and take a top secret document outlining strategy in a potential conflict. I know the desperation to explain everything away is considerable, but this is seriously stretching the limits of reason.

If this is genuine (and that's still a major if), this report would have been classified. If it wasn't in use, it would have been locked away in a basement along with the thousands of other random scenarios and strategies every government has.

If this is genuine, it means several things...

1. The Kremlin had a deliberate plan to annex a part of another nation in breach of international law.
2. The Kremlin was directly involved in the attempt to influence the revolution, the democratic process of Ukraine and the future of Crimea
3. Someone within the most secure inner circle of Putin's government has betrayed him, and this person is likely not alone.

Again, IF genuine, there is no doubt that this was not just another strategy covered in dust in a basement cabinet, and it absolutely was being used and in effect. There is no chance that someone could gain access to such a file and leak it unless it was on desks (meaning either in use or planned to be) and without being a member of Putin's inner circle.

But as said several times (to make it clear) we still don't know that it is genuine.

We will do though. If it's real the paper reporting on it will find themselves in trouble, journalists will likely find themselves being charged with something completely different and quickly imprisoned for several years, and there will likely be an effort in the Kremlin to purge anyone Putin distrusts.