Russia Builds up a Mole inside the EU

For years now Russia has been conducting business with the multi-faced EU. That business has been getting more and more difficult as the EU tries to break Moscow's stranglehold on energy supplies to Eastern EU members. However Russia has carefully been chipping away at the EU, one country at a time. Lately the MSM has been focused on Russian overtures to Greece and while that may become important down the road Russia actually already has it's Mole inside the EU.

That Mole is named Hungary.

Viktor Orban since his election victory in 2010 has been shifting Hungary away from 'democratic' norms and towards 'autocratic norms'.

foreignpolicy.com...

Of course by the election of 2014 Orban had revamped the electoral process enough to convert 45% of the popular vote into a 2/3 super majority...allowing him to govern any way he likes including changing the constitution...which he promptly did of course.

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com...

Now credit to Orban he hasn't been doing this in secret, he openly tells people what he's doing. Naturally this created significant waves around the EU. Mighty words like liberalization and democracy are being ground up by Orban as he takes much more control over Hungary, especially the media that might have challenged him. Of course while some friends might not like your new attitude other new friends will always come long. Enter one of the world's largest autocrat's, Vladimir Vladamirovich Putin.



Orban's new best friend Vladimir isn't only a cool Tiger wrestling, shirtless horse riding stud of a man, he also sells a lot of Gas and Oil around the world. Good news for Orban who has now taken control over a country will practically zero Oil and Gas resources. However every good friendship involves both friends helping each other. What could poor Orban, leader of one of the poorest countries in the EU, help such an international man of mystery like Putin with? Well it turns out Orban is a member of a club Putin is having ongoing problems with. His vote in that EU club is pretty valuable...especially when some decisions require 100% agreement!

Fast forward a few years and Viktor and Vladimir are as close as ever. The EU has been slow to apply any sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, and even the applied sanctions have been so weak Vlad has driven a military Kamaz through the loopholes.

www.economist.com...

Hell Victor has even refused to reverse flow Vladimir's Gas to Ukraine ensuring his new friends continued love. Victor and Vladimir are getting much closer over the years and now big business is starting to get signed.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/from-russia-with-love-an-energy-deal-for-hungary/2015/02/16/05216670-b134-11e4-bf39-5560f3918d4b_story.html?wprss= rss_europe

Cut rate Gas supplies are in the works for Victor! Not only that but a new Nuke plant to produce a 1/3 of all the countries electricity! Congratulations are in order as Hungary gets a deal that Ukraine previously got. Of course we all know what happened to Ukraine when the friendship ended. Vladimir repossessed a part of the country and installed a few friends to make Ukraine's life miserable forever. Sometimes past lovers get a little vindictive. But don't worry Viktor! Your love with Putin is different. It's an everlasting love that will never die! At least until the EU, your former lover, decides to kick you out of your EU home. When that happens I wonder if Vladimir will still love you as much?

originally posted by: noeltrotsky

That Mole is named Hungary.

So this top secret "mole" can be found on any world map?

Not the best of moles really eh?
And they definitely need a new secret plan now you have "outed" their bromance.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

1.So? they can do that.We do it with all the others,except we bully them into submission. Aren't we nice?
2.I agree,he is not much of a 'mole'. Nothing he is doing,he is keeping secret,so there is no real subterfuge there.
3.As far as the EU being slow to put sanctions on Russia,you are joking about that right? That is all they have done for the past year.They did it as well right after Minsk 1 and now once again after Minsk 2. They aren't even letting the agreements solidify or anything,oh no,damn the torpedoes and full steam ahead. So that statement is the biggest joke of all.

What happened to Ukraine was not that the 'friendship' ended,but rather that outside forces decided that they wanted to control things themselves. Looks a lot like Libya now doesn't it? But they thought they had a shining beacon in Libya to show the world how well they had done.LOLOLOLOLOL

a reply to: Dimithae

If you read the economist link you'll understand that the sanctions against Russia are not really effective.

Neither apparently is the Ukrainian army with Russias little ninjas....
Big doings going down these days....
the inept quality of our leadership has never been more apparent to all.....

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Okay, I was going along nicely until we reached the part about the sanctions.

Weak? No chance.

Russia cannot hide its economic state from the world, and there are plenty of voices inside Russia right now screaming about the damage these sanctions are doing to the Russian economy. Putin is even using that damage to ratchet up the extreme nationalism that already existed, and it's working on the poor deluded Russians in the same way it worked on the poor deluded Germans of the 1930's.

As for how this relationship with Hungary will play out, I can already tell you. If Putin is relying on Hungary as an ally to manipulate decisions in the EU, the EU will evict Hungary for siding with a despotic threat to Europe. This will be a matter of European security, and make no mistake about it, if Hungary assists in the threat to a group of nations it is a part of, it will be ejected from that group and the EU will continue without them.

I feel bad for the people of Hungary, they've clearly elected someone who will drag them back thirty years or more. He's not a leader fit for purpose and he's not the kind of national leader we want within the EU.

The EU is a democratic group of nations (even if some people want to scream about irrelevant minutia they find issue with) and such a character will not do well.

a reply to: Rocker2013

Did you read the Economist link about Russian companies avoiding the sanctions? The reality is that the price of Oil is the only thing really impacting Russia right now. The sanctions are too loose to do much damage really.

I'm arguing that Hungary has already been slowing down EU sanctions against Russia.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky
a reply to: Rocker2013

Did you read the Economist link about Russian companies avoiding the sanctions? The reality is that the price of Oil is the only thing really impacting Russia right now. The sanctions are too loose to do much damage really.

I'm arguing that Hungary has already been slowing down EU sanctions against Russia.

Companies are always finding ways to avoid sanctions, the same happened with Iran.
Millions of Russians are indeed feeling it, and this can only impact negatively on the Russian economy as a whole. Whether companies can circumvent sanctions or not, the consumer can't. Sanctions are predominantly intended to target specific people, or groups of people, but they inevitably send the entire economy into a decline as spending slows and a scared public begins to save and prioritize.

Russia likes to pretend, to its own people, that sanctions are pointless (because it serves Putin to lie to them and bolster the nationalistic line), but then makes angry statements outside of Russia to nations imposing sanctions. Lavrov has attacked the EU, UK and US for the sanctions several times, but while he's making angry statements about it we're supposed to also think that they're almost useless?

I agree the low oil price is contributing to that too though.

Either way, Russia isn't doing very well, and it would take a hell of a lot more than the support of Hungary to change that.

A new round of sanctions are due soon, if Putin and his rebels don't stop and pull back, and I can almost guarantee that one of the biggest things we'll see is Russia being blocked from the SWIFT banking system.

If Lavrov was b*tching about sanctions before, he's going to have a meltdown if Russia is ejected from the SWIFT system.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky
a reply to: Dimithae

If you read the economist link you'll understand that the sanctions against Russia are not really effective.

That's because they are not meant to be, and not much to do with whack-a-mole. Ukraine has a recent history of knocking off the Russian natural gas, (which is more to the point than 'oil') and not paying for it, something that users in the West don't need, however I think they/some chose Ukraine badly as a securor of the pipeline because the whole scenario in Ukraine has feck all to do with any kind of democracy... quite the opposite. Meh! enough said.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky
a reply to: Dimithae

If you read the economist link you'll understand that the sanctions against Russia are not really effective.

Okay, I just finished reading it (it's a pretty long piece) but you seem to be confused.

This is not saying that sanctions are not working, it's saying that a very few companies have managed to avoid sanctions by maneuvering, the owners of those companies are still facing sanctions.

In addition, Hungary has no impact on this. The sanctions HAVE been imposed, they have not been watered down or made any less substantial by anything Hungary has done, or has the power to do.

As you can see from the information provided in the piece, even the example they give has been hit hard by sanctions, they simply moved one or two aspects of the company in an attempt to work around those sanctions. This is no way suggests that sanctions are not working, in fact the opposite is true, otherwise they would not have to restructure their companies to try to avoid them.

a reply to: Rocker2013

The Economist is pointing out that the current sanction regime is being avoided by most large companies and the Russian state is financing the big state banks and companies. The only thing the sanctions are doing to scaring off investments and providing lawyers lots of work around the world shifting shell companies from one Russian relative to another.

This is a real shot across the Russian economy bow...

www.bloomberg.com...

Citigroup predicting Oil could drop to $20/barrel. It's a warning to Russia that things can get worse if they really want more Ukraine.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

I've been reading about the sanctions they have put against Russia and because they aren't effective it should stop. It is hurting business in other countries that really don't want to be in this mess. If we would stay out of that area and trying to get all those countries to go 'NATO', there wouldn't be these issues. We most certainly would not let any country start messing around with a latin American country being as how close it is to us.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky

This is a real shot across the Russian economy bow...

No it's not, Russia is actually buying oil it really doesn't need, because it's bartering with Iran for sanction busting material like foodstuffs.

originally posted by: stirling
Neither apparently is the Ukrainian army with Russias little ninjas....
Big doings going down these days....
the inept quality of our leadership has never been more apparent to all.....

Sine you are active on Russia and Ukraine threads

I been trying to ask you but can never get a response

Does Budapest memorandum protect Ukraine from foreign backed revolutions and coups to install puppets

Thank you for your time

originally posted by: Rocker2013

A new round of sanctions are due soon, if Putin and his rebels don't stop and pull back, and I can almost guarantee that one of the biggest things we'll see is Russia being blocked from the SWIFT banking system.

Russia already said that would be act of war
How would you like dirty bomb or EMP in New York

Would do wonders for markets

Your belief that you people are be all end all will be your undoing

a reply to: noeltrotsky

So let me get this straight

You found biased half truth articles that have a problem with Putin OPENLY making alies

Boy do you try hard

a reply to: noeltrotsky


Why all these "essays" about Russia lately?

What is the point that you are trying to make?

That Russia is making moves on the political world stage like all (super)powers?

I think everyone is aware of that.

originally posted by: PizzaAnyday505

originally posted by: stirling
Neither apparently is the Ukrainian army with Russias little ninjas....
Big doings going down these days....
the inept quality of our leadership has never been more apparent to all.....

Sine you are active on Russia and Ukraine threads

I been trying to ask you but can never get a response

Does Budapest memorandum protect Ukraine from foreign backed revolutions and coups to install puppets

Thank you for your time

My interpretation of the Budapest memorandum is that the territorial integrity of Ukraine is to be protected by the signatories. The agreement has nothing to do with regime changes or different ways that might happen. However Russia annexing Crimea breaks the agreement. If Crimea became an independent country it wouldn't break the memorandum. If Eastern Ukraine becomes an independent country it doesn't break the agreement.

And the headlines in the EU start coming out about Putin's visit to Hungary.

www.wsj.com...

Of course Orban and Putin intend to seal the details of the new Gas contract so that nobody is allowed to view it in an effort to break the EU's common energy market push. Just another step away from the EU by Hungary.

It's interesting because 'the world' thinks joining the EU is the best move, but not all countries agree.

Errrr Russia is the EU's biggest fuel supplier, providing 30% of its gas, 35% of its crude oil and 26% of its solid fuels.